Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

[Oberon]

Nice summary, my thoughts the same at present too, I think give it a couple of weeks and we may not be scratching our heads.....

First, thanks for the link SailorRob.

I thought this was a fool's gold rally and nothing more. No amount of money can buy back the one thing the USA needed in the first place, namely - being prepared. Time to pay the piper...

[dobby41]

Chairman of Morgan Stanley on CNBC this morning. We're already in a global recession.

My view is evolving fast. I think we're very likely to head into a global depression, indeed it has probably started already.

Why do you think there will be a depression?
Unemployment will rise but will credit dry up?

[Entrep]

Sold all shares I bought on the dips at close yesterday and the rest this morning. Expect to be buying a lot cheaper in coming weeks/months. 100% cash now in respect of share funds.

[Beagle]

Why do you think there will be a depression?
Unemployment will rise but will credit dry up?

Yes. In the great depression that started in 1929 global GDP shrank 15% in the following three years. We are shrinking at a much faster rate than that at present in my opinion.
Over time, yes I do think credit will be harder to come by despite a Herculean effort from RBNZ to provide substantial relief.
Unemployment is likely to head into the mid teens from just 4% in my opinion.
The next few months from an economic perspective are going to look like "Apocalypse Now" in my opinion. How it goes after that, its too early to say but I am not in the V or U shaped recovery camp. Best we can hope for is a W shaped recovery...more likely an L shaped recovery, a long L at that.

[Cyclical]

Sold all shares I bought on the dips at close yesterday and the rest this morning. Expect to be buying a lot cheaper in coming weeks/months. 100% cash now in respect of share funds.

You me both, although I'm only about 97.5% cash ;-)

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12321767

[clip]

Anyone think it's possible to have a recession without the stock market going way down? Presume it's never happened before. Have never held any stocks through a bear market before (only started investing well after the GFC). Given the low interest rates and QE, might that be a possibility? Pretty sure I know the answer (a strong no)

[Cadalac123]

Reading into price action right now is a big big no no, institutions clearly manipulating the market and depth with their little algos to really rip off the retail investor.

Solid company with foreseeable cash flows in the future being steady - difficult to know at this time, if such a company exists i'd DCA it as it goes down further

You can even play with the algos yourself. Set a buy price lower than whats there, all of a sudden depth returns back to normal. Hilarious.

[macduffy]

Solid company with foreseeable cash flows in the future being steady - difficult to know at this time, if such a company exists i'd DCA it as it goes down further

Yes, that's the hard part, isn't it! Working out the "foreseeable cash flows" after identifying a solid company, all when we don't know how the current situation will play out. Time to consider strategies for investing in it then!

[clip]

Reading into price action right now is a big big no no, institutions clearly manipulating the market and depth with their little algos to really rip off the retail investor.

Solid company with foreseeable cash flows in the future being steady - difficult to know at this time, if such a company exists i'd DCA it as it goes down further

You can even play with the algos yourself. Set a buy price lower than whats there, all of a sudden depth returns back to normal. Hilarious.

thanks, good things to consider. The ones I have remaining I am happy to hold and DCA