Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

[Aaron]

Actually a lot less than the normal strains but the scare mongers conveniently evade that fact.

My record on predicting the next bear market should be well known so I have no idea if this is “the big one” but you can guess how I voted.

Where are you getting your numbers from Schrodinger and Couta?
My understanding was that the mortality rate for the flu was about .1%. Deaths are much higher because just about everyone gets the flu at least once a year. Coronavirus so far sounds like it has a 2% mortality rate. (Spanish flu might have been about 2%)

That is 1 death per 1,000 infections for the flu and 20 deaths per 1,000 infections for Coronavirus.

Interesting Lance O’Sullivan retracted his initial comments regarding Coronavirus.

On the plus side it may have kicked off a bear market and we may have another once in a lifetime investing opportunity, although we will still not know where the bottom is.

Also it has been great for climate change so far and national superannuation in NZ might become much more affordable for NZ over the next couple of years.

I should not make light of something that has the potential to be catastrophic (I appreciate “catastrophic” is much more emotive than “bad” but it sounded better in the sentence.)

As always no one knows what the future holds and we can only hope that this turns out to be like SARS or Y2K and I pick the exact bottom of the next bear market.

If anyone can see the future could you email me Saturday’s lotto numbers and tell me what level the NZX will hit bottom if this is a bear market.

[ratkin]

Dodged a massive bullet here, was frightened out of the market a few days ago, apart from EBOS and Invocare.

Now it just a question of when to dip some toes in.
Feel there is no rush as the bad news is just going to keep coming, will wait till the end of the world looks nigh, which looks pretty close tbf

Always feel happiest in a bear market, valuations always look much more sensible

[ratkin]

Its just a normal flu who cares if it hits NZ - death rates are the same as the normal one.

It not like N1 H1 that the Americans unleashed on an unsuspecting world

[Blue Horseshoe]

Its just a normal flu who cares if it hits NZ - death rates are the same as the normal one.

Its not about the death rate altogether.
How much productivity does New Zealand Inc loose a year to the common flu, now add highly contagious Corrona virus to that figure, also our hospitals at max every winter just with the common flu let alone a double whammy.

[couta1]

I'm just loving these Bears, I feel like I want to invite them to a picnic and give them a honeypot each.

[blackcap]

Wonder how the new Sharesies generation are enjoying this roller coaster ride? The precipitous drop will be a new sensation for many.

IT will be a very good learning experience for them. Sharesies coming to market at about the 9 year mark in a bull run might turn out to be unfortunate.

[madmat]

Wonder how the new Sharesies generation are enjoying this roller coaster ride? The precipitous drop will be a new sensation for many.

I use sharesies as well as ASB. There was an announcement regarding a live stream to discuss the current drops. Certainly some ppl panicking on their facebook page, others not so much.

[peat]

Sharesies coming to market at about the 9 year mark in a bull run might turn out to be unfortunate.

Its actually more than unfortunate its co-related. I said recently that Sharesies is the equivalent of the shoe shine boy getting into the market, and signals that EVERYBODY is IN, and there are no more people to pass the parcel to.

[bull....]

If we get another 25% to 50% off from here on solid stocks (the kind that have real growing earnings underpinned by sustainable competitive advantage and favourable market dynamics), there will be some wonderful once in a decade type buying opportunities.

yes agree other great times were the the great recession and the great depression

[Biscuit]

Its actually more than unfortunate its co-related. I said recently that Sharesies is the equivalent of the shoe shine boy getting into the market, and signals that EVERYBODY is IN, and there are no more people to pass the parcel to.

Yes, but there must be a lot of money parked out of the market at this stage?