Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

[Entrep]

Highly recommended reading https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/...ch-way-now.pdf

[ratkin]

I found this picture in my 2010 folder. Seems perfectly apt.


Attachment 11189

Hard to say, there has been a tremendous amount of fear, and there was a big capitulation day a week or Two ago when people were selling anything for anything they could get. I am guessing most feel far less afraid than a week ago, and it is hard to imagine another day like that one we had when we hit bottom.

I pick the bottom one, but I think we staying down their for a while, and some sectors may go much lower, but of course this situation is not normal, and like most other things it will be the virus that decides

[ratkin]

Trump not too optimistic, will the markets be able to shake off the coming storm? The carnage could force lockdowns all over the states

“This could be a hell of a bad two weeks. This is going to be a very bad two, and maybe three weeks. This is going to be three weeks like we’ve never seen before,”

[Joshuatree]

Highly recommended reading https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/...ch-way-now.pdf

Thanks good read. Me bearish but i may miss out lol.

"In the Global Financial Crisis, I worried about a downward cascade of financial news, and about the implications for the economy of serial bankruptcies among financial institutions. But everyday life was unchanged from what it had been, and there was no obvious threat to life and limb.
Today the range of negative outcomes seems much wider, as described above. Social isolation, disease and death, economic contraction, enormous reliance on government action, and uncertainty about the long-term effects are all with us, and the main questions surround how far they will go."

[see weed]

Just a few approx figures so far. The dow jones dropped about 48% over about 88 weeks in the GFC from 13/7/07 to 20/3/09 = -6,845 points. The dow jones dropped about 37% over 5 weeks so far in the covid-19 from 14/2/20 to 20/3/20 = -10,960 points.....So Far....

[winner69]

Just a few approx figures so far. The dow jones dropped about 48% over about 88 weeks in the GFC from 13/7/07 to 20/3/09 = -6,845 points. The dow jones dropped about 37% over 5 weeks so far in the covid-19 from 14/2/20 to 20/3/20 = -10,960 points.....So Far....

...and as things unfold isn’t today worse than the GFC

In the GFC For most the world carried on as if nothing happened ....but this event the worlds sort of stopped and nearly everyone is affected

So my dear friends seeweed wil the dow fall by more than 48% this time?

You timed your operation well.

[bull....]

get used to the fact of a lot of companies not paying dividends , going bust and you losing your capital as well as the year rolls on.

[workingdad]

Is it not absolutely astounding that with all that has already happened and is known to be happening just in the next three weeks economically speaking - let alone what is unknown, that the collective market price of the top 50 companies is around where it was a year ago?

The biggest economic dislocation in our lives in a tiny, open, export based economy at the end of the world... massive loss of output, contracts in question in all sectors of the economy, McDonalds and Harvey Norman talking about not paying rent...

Most households levered up to the point they are living week to week, same with most companies. Complete halt to tourism an immigration... the fact that thousands of businesses will be reluctant to take on staff for years. Working capital destroyed.

None of the numbers even out yet. Global economic and political uncertainty, no idea how long for... Massive demand shock and supply shock...

The beginning of QE never having been implemented here before as well as loads of other policies changing by the hour...

AND the market values the top 50 companies around the price they did a year ago when blue sky as far as the eye can see...

What am I missing.

Nice summary, my thoughts the same at present too, I think give it a couple of weeks and we may not be scratching our heads.....

[Beagle]

Chairman of Morgan Stanley on CNBC this morning. We're already in a global recession.

My view is evolving fast. I think we're very likely to head into a global depression, indeed it has probably started already.
The grizzly bear's rampant appetite after an 11 year hibernation has been initially satisfied. The initial phase of terror and fear has probably passed. My view is we are now moving into the second phase where the bear will gnaw away at the market, grinding it down and down as the severe economic effects of this virus become readily apparent and impossible to ignore.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/coro...some-wars.html

[blackcap]

Chairman of Morgan Stanley on CNBC this morning. We're already in a global recession.

My view is evolving fast. I think we're very likely to head into a global depression, indeed it has probably started already.
The grizzly bear's rampant appetitive after an 11 year hibernation has been initially satisfied. The initial phase of terror and fear has probably passed. My view is we are now moving into the second phase where the bear will gnaw away at the market, grinding it down and down as the severe economic effects of this virus become readily apparent and impossible to ignore.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/coro...some-wars.html

The KMD rights issue announced yesterday was sobering for me. Not the first one and many many more to come. Death by 1000 cuts.