Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

[blackcap]

There is no limit, or rather it's more than you think it is. Monetary easing works better than the alternatives.

What is the real concern for "debt" you own yourself through the RB for under 1%?

The real concern is when this 1% starts to move on an upward trajectory and goes back to the 5-10% range and then as a country we are going to have it tough. But at the moment no worries because we are only at about 50% of GDP and that is manageable.

[Panda-NZ-]

Most countires will have over 100% though. plus their own reserve banks own a large percentage of the debt too.

We could end up the best in the world in relative terms. I think it's hard to think of anyone else with debt this low. Maybe they are the smart ones given the decade low interest rates? After inflation the interest is 0%.

[dobby41]

I don't really know the guy or his record to be honest but the article reckoned he had a record of sorts, who knows, I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day.

So you say that "he has a good track record of predicting such things" as if it is a personal recommendation then say you don't know his record?
Maybe you should have said "he says he has a good track record".
See how easy it is to spread rubbish around social networks, with your background people would believe what you said.

[percy]

Harry Dent's comments made extremely good sense to me.

[bull....]

there was no bear market if you owned these 20%+ shares YTD on the NZX

in order of performance YTD

PPH
CVT
FPH
BLT
ATM
AFT
CNU
PLX

stock pickers market for sure , some on here have done very well and some have done very badly depending on what you own

[Aaron]

Harry Dent's comments made extremely good sense to me.

I don't disagree with what Harry Dent is saying but he has been saying it for a long time. Also monetary policy and interest rates are I think at historically extreme levels so Harry's predictions are fighting the Federal Reserve so to speak. No one knows how that will play out. Supposedly intelligent people discuss negative interest rates like they make sense. No sane person lends $10 to get $9 back and no sane person entering retirement will switch to fixed interest and cash when they know they are being robbed.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300...t-mean-for-you

This guy seems to make sense as far as predicting the near term.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/po...ake-it-forever

In my opinion scrapping targeted inflation for central banks would be a relatively painless and politically achievable first step to reducing the financialization of the economy. We must be getting close to a point where more people are thinking that these economists are doing more of the same in the hope of a growth outcome that will get us out of a debt hole they are digging. It has worked since the 80s but we must be reaching debt limits and interest rate bottoms that indicate that the free lunch of easy money, lower interest rates and inflation taking care of debt may be reaching its end.

That said there is no limit to the amount of money that can be printed and apparently markets shot up last night on talk of a vaccine or cure and then shot up further on Fed assurance of doing "whatever it takes" its unstoppable.

[Beagle]

Harry Dent's comments made extremely good sense to me.

+1. Profoundly good common sense.
When my Kiwibonds mature I doubt I will reinvest. The amount of quantitative easing is starting to really worry me and talk of even more coming. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121...ay+19+May+2020

Still....the markets thing a vaccine is just around the corner and everything is going to be fine...what could possibly go wrong...

[Oberon]

Well I haven't gone near the NZX in nearly two months. More the fool me, I wonder. Harry Dent reckons late 2020 for the other shoe to drop. John Ryder thinks the "counter trend rally" is losing steam. I think, well ... I defer to wiser heads, but this entire rally has made me uncomfortable and perhaps overly cautious.

[iceman]

The real concern is when this 1% starts to move on an upward trajectory and goes back to the 5-10% range and then as a country we are going to have it tough. But at the moment no worries because we are only at about 50% of GDP and that is manageable.

No problems really when the debt is held by the NZ Government itself (RBNZ) in NZ$. They'll just keep the printers going. No worries.

[Biscuit]

No problems really when the debt is held by the NZ Government itself (RBNZ) in NZ$. They'll just keep the printers going. No worries.

Yeah, a good model for that would be ...... Zimbabwe?