Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

[blackcap]

Its actually more than unfortunate its co-related. I said recently that Sharesies is the equivalent of the shoe shine boy getting into the market, and signals that EVERYBODY is IN, and there are no more people to pass the parcel to.

Agree, but my unfortunate was more related to the fact that if this is a big correction it will put of another whole generation from equity markets. NZ does not need that.

[couta1]

If we get another 25% to 50% off from here on solid stocks (the kind that have real growing earnings underpinned by sustainable competitive advantage and favourable market dynamics), there will be some wonderful once in a decade type buying opportunities.

I reckon your being overly hopeful here, it's a virus not a complete financial collapse or WW3.

[Biscuit]

I reckon your being overly hopeful here, it's a virus not a complete financial collapse or WW3.

The virus, IMO, is not such a big deal. If this had happened 5 years ago, it would have been a temporary drop and then shrugged off (it still could be, who knows what the markets are going to do). But this is a time when markets are already stretched, the bull was getting tired and many of us were getting bored with it and are psychologically ready to see this blow up. Also, in the real world, some major economies are already on the verge of recession and this is going to tip them over the edge. Low interest rates have led many companies and people deep into debt and there isn't much room this time round to alleviate that with even lower interest rates. I wouldn't bet my money a full blown bear isn't going to materialize this time.

[850man]

The virus, IMO, is not such a big deal. If this had happened 5 years ago, it would have been a temporary drop and then shrugged off (it still could be, who knows what the markets are going to do). But this is a time when markets are already stretched, the bull was getting tired and many of us were getting bored with it and are psychologically ready to see this blow up. Also, in the real world, some major economies are already on the verge of recession and this is going to tip them over the edge. Low interest rates have led many companies and people deep into debt and there isn't much room this time round to alleviate that with even lower interest rates. I wouldn't bet my money a full blown bear isn't going to materialize this time.

A correction has been due for some time... Corona looks like the trigger.

[winner69]

Yes, but there must be a lot of money parked out of the market at this stage?

But the buyers of the shares sold have more money in the market. ..ie lots of money parked in the market

[Biscuit]

But the buyers of the shares sold have more money in the market. ..ie lots of money parked in the market

Yes, although less today than yesterday, and even less tomorrow.

[couta1]

The virus, IMO, is not such a big deal. If this had happened 5 years ago, it would have been a temporary drop and then shrugged off (it still could be, who knows what the markets are going to do). But this is a time when markets are already stretched, the bull was getting tired and many of us were getting bored with it and are psychologically ready to see this blow up. Also, in the real world, some major economies are already on the verge of recession and this is going to tip them over the edge. Low interest rates have led many companies and people deep into debt and there isn't much room this time round to alleviate that with even lower interest rates. I wouldn't bet my money a full blown bear isn't going to materialize this time.

Still value buying left IMO, A2 with new revised valuations way above current price and of course my other favourite HLG now on a PE just under 10 and would need a disastrous result to justify the current price., whoops I forgot to mention PAZ on the unlisted market. OCA looks good as well.

[winner69]

Yes, although less today than yesterday, and even less tomorrow.

......but the amount of cash coming out is the same as the amount going in .....net impact on total cash balances nil?

[ratkin]

The only saving grace for the markets could be the low interest rates, once the dust has settled people are going to be looking for yield, and the more the prices fall the better the yields look.

Valuations are still stretched P/E will look even more stretched when E falls for most companies, but if there are stocks that can keep churning the dividends out until matters improve then they should become sought after.

The 25% falls will probably only happen if the virus is here, and everybody stays indoors not spending for Three months.
Another 10% and I will be sniffing around for some safe yield plays

[Biscuit]

Still value buying left IMO, A2 with new revised valuations way above current price and of course my other favourite HLG now on a PE just under 10 and would need a disastrous result to justify the current price., whoops I forgot to mention PAZ on the unlisted market. OCA looks good as well.

Yes, I've held HLG since 2010 and still hold. Not one I would sell personally, but I'd expect there is a good chance earnings are going to take a dive for a while. I'm all out of old folks homes (sold my RYM this month - hated to do it but low div return, over-priced, and I'd hate to see what happens if the virus really gets going in the retirement homes, unlikely though that is).