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  1. #101
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    Hopefully they all even cheaper on Monday. There is normally so much bad news over the weekend that only one way prices are likely to go. Must admit there are a few starting to look tempting, but must resist

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I'd like to add MET to the list at $3.50, the takeover is doomed.

    OCA - Am waiting for TA confirmation of a bottom...a break up through the 30 day MA would be sufficient for me to start a new hound hunt

    I've also exited my position in MET on concerns the takeover will not proceed. I'd be happy to buy back in at the right price but one lingering concern I have with buying the retirement sector is the market's likely reaction if there is a single case of Covid-19 in any retirement complex.

  3. #103
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I've also added THL to my Christmas stocking wish list at half NTA - 90 cents. (You can make a lot of money on cyclical's buying at the bottom of the cycle).
    THL was never really a growth company, (just a cyclical with a lot of talk about growth from Rob Campbell, pretending it was a growth company).
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #104
    I like peanuts... youngatheart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
    AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
    ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
    ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
    ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
    BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
    GNE $2 (ditto above)
    GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
    HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
    HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
    KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
    MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
    MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
    OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
    RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
    SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)

    Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.
    Hnmm, so OCA has hit the mark at 80c, next AIR at 75c?...

  5. #105
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by youngatheart View Post
    Hnmm, so OCA has hit the mark at 80c, next AIR at 75c?...
    Yeap, they're now the red hot favourite on that list to be next but please note the caveat to buying at the bottom.
    After that ARG are not far away and have a fair percentage of retail buildings so are vulnerable to a pullback as small retailers struggle and as we head into a winter of deep recessionary economic doom and gloom, banks and finance companies never do well so HGH follow along.
    SUM probably in contention too with the speed of their fall from grace showing no signs of slowing.
    Last edited by Beagle; 15-03-2020 at 02:11 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #106
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
    AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
    ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
    ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
    ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
    BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
    GNE $2 (ditto above)
    GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
    HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
    HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
    KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
    MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
    MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
    OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
    RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
    SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)
    MET $3.50 (inept management and imminent takeover failure, needs to be half NTA to get me interested)
    THL 90 cents. (Serious trouble here but a massive restructuring and selldown of the fleet might see them escape chapter 11 in the USA and administration here provided they get some Govt support like AIR desperately need)
    Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.
    Updated shopping list and note the caveat at the bottom which I have bolded and colored up to ensure nobody misses it.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #107
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    In the end we'll all be buying the stock that we each percieve to be the biggest bargain or having the fastest recovery, which may be the same thing.

    I suspect AIR might be top of that list, followed by AIA? I doubt REITS will be all that cheap, but who knows?!

    Banks could also be a good one, and any stocks that currently have a stretched PE.

  8. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
    AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
    ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
    ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
    ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
    BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
    GNE $2 (ditto above)
    GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
    HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
    HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
    KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
    MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
    MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
    OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
    RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
    SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)
    MET $3.50 (inept management and imminent takeover failure, needs to be half NTA to get me interested)
    THL 90 cents. (Serious trouble here but a massive restructuring and selldown of the fleet might see them escape chapter 11 in the USA and administration here provided they get some Govt support like AIR desperately need)
    Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.
    I'm a tech dinasor but would it be possible for someone smarter than me to build a chart that plots beagles predictions as we move forward into the economic abyss ? Could be entertaining.

  9. #109
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    Which stocks if any are likely to indirectly benefit from this stimulus package?

  10. #110
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    None...as bear will Savage any stocks to the ground....

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