Shopping list - Best companies to snap up

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12318795

Anyone without access should subscribe...there's stuff in there you need to know.

All I will say in support of what is written in that article is that I know from first hand experience that it was a very "interesting" week for the liquidity of some banks operating in N.Z.

[couta1]

No no,no. Look whats happened to naive people following couta down! Do not follow anyone. , gather info sure but make your own responsible decisions, based on solid facts, discipline and focus. Everyone makes mistakes even the example above stuffs up. Dont expect recipes (reccos, spellcheck from me . stay healthy.

I would expect a little better from you in times like these than cheap shots Jt, I never asked anyone to do anything, I'm a straight up person and simply post what I'm holding and doing with added enthusiasm at times, each must make their own choices and decisions, it's a forum which by definition is simply an exchange of thoughts and ideas with or without research.

[RupertBear]

I would expect a little better from you in times like these than cheap shots Jt, I never asked anyone to do anything, I'm a straight up person and simply post what I'm holding and doing with added enthusiasm at times, each must make their own choices and decisions, it's a forum which by definition is simply an exchange of thoughts and ideas with or without research.

Quite true Couta, I dont recall you ever encouraging people to follow your investing path. You seem like a genuine up front kinda guy to me who just happens to go big on HGL and has posted as such. I imagine you are down quite badly on this one at the moment so ignore Jts comment as I am sure he/she meant no malice behind it. Take care

[trackers]

I can see your point of view VI. Always exceptions. But i a mere amateur mortal for one have pretty average analytic (i can be easily fooled trying to interpret a complex balance sheet) and T/A skills and dont have an endless supply of cash BUT someone who i have a lot of respect for as an investor is buying in, averaging down .

Unlike me he is the best analyst i have come across ever, so he researches his companies forensically and is left with top quality companies with generally great balance sheets of which he knows their managements quality and history and valuations accurately, he ignores all brokers research notes and their picks/sells . This eliminates emotion, eliminates FOMO and EGO, 2 of the biggest pitfalls for us ordinary folk.

So when these companies drop into a sizeable discount to HIS valn,he starts adding to his positions totally ignoring whats going on in the world, he is buying a part ownership in a great company(rather then thinking of buying shares in a company). Longer term he is really confident that averaging down now will pay off for him with his own particular needs and criteria.

He is not chasing bargains and big gains but some companies he is averaging down in have dropped heaps look to be going alot more, scary to look at from here. One needs alot of resolve and discipline. He is also expecting cap raises at very low prices in afew he targets to be in on.


Another tactic is to invest 2% of your cash every time the mkt drops 4%!

The beauty here is he doesn't have to worry away about where the bottom is and trying to pick bottoms is a total waste of time imo and involves some hand cleanser sanitation (currently unavailableafter.And when the mkt confidence does return rebounds can be like a coilled titanium spring, swift and high. You can miss it.

im also assuming i will still be here but unlike many selfish "bullet proof younger people who are still crowding at parties , beaches etc and spreading Covid 19 to their grandparents im distancing etc.

Im being pretty basic and waiting for peak infection signs in Europe and USA, Britain etc and hope to get back in nearer a bottom(either side will do). Lots of false hope imo re vaccines cloud the issue somewhat and complicate decision making.

I do keep asking, what are ones time frames for when the world does start opening up again and manufacture and supply chains flow again, people start earning ?. 3 moths, 6, a year more? Govt's can only bail out for so long.

Generally speaking, what your mate is doing is sensible: The valuations of these great company have been slashed by a bear market, and you can pick them up cheaply and wait for the rebound. All good.

The problem with it this time however, and what a lot of the value investors on here are missing, is that the share prices aren't just declining because of a panic. They're declining because of both a panic and also a fundamental revaluation of the business based on what is happening.

Is your mate revaluing the businesses based on what's happening? I bet he isn't (because he can't; the impact is unknowable). But he/she should be trying. Revenue is going down. Economy is hitting a recession. Demand will be suppressed for a long time due to big hits to our main industry (tourists staying away) and less money recirculating.

A few of us have been saying for weeks already that buying at this stage is crazy, but people have been doing it already and paying the price....and in my opinion will continue to. Good luck...

[Cadalac123]

Here’s a potential view ok no one needs to listen to it. But it’s a potential strategy.

Some companies will be temporary impacted or almost not impacted at all . Some will suffer for a couple of months but retain their future cash flows post the obvious event happening now.

If you can spot companies like that and you hold them already why would you sell them? And if you don’t hold them why would you get stung DCAing a company that’s fell 40 plus percent? You’re in dream land if you think every company will go to 0.010c

[Baa_Baa]

A few of us have been saying for weeks already that buying at this stage is crazy, but people have been doing it already and paying the price....and in my opinion will continue to. Good luck...

Sorry for cherry picking your post but this comment stood on its own merits. Bear in mind that every share sold on the way down had a buyer, every single share. Not every 'people', or fund, or insto, or kiwisaver cares about whether they'll be priced lower tomorrow, they see value, they buy off distressed sellers. Deep pockets and optimistic investors will just keep buying what they see as value whether one thinks it's crazy or not. This will continue into whatever the bottom prices for individual stocks are. Every seller has a buyer.

[trackers]

Sorry for cherry picking your post but this comment stood on its own merits. Bear in mind that every share sold on the way down had a buyer, every single share. Not every 'people', or fund, or insto, or kiwisaver cares about whether they'll be priced lower tomorrow, they see value, they buy off distressed sellers. Deep pockets and optimistic investors will just keep buying what they see as value whether one thinks it's crazy or not. This will continue into whatever the bottom prices for individual stocks are. Every seller has a buyer.

Yeah you are absolutely right there is a buyer for every trade.

Like I was saying, in my opinion, the problem lies in the fact that people are seeing value based on information that's not valid anymore. I'm pretty comfortable that yesterdays valuation for almost all companies has no relationship with tomorrows, but to what extent I have no idea and won't be trying to guess!

[Snoopy]

Generally speaking, what your mate is doing is sensible:

Quite right. Who on here would have picked that Joshuatree personally knew Warren Buffett....

The valuations of these great company have been slashed by a bear market, and you can pick them up cheaply and wait for the rebound. All good.

The problem with it this time however, and what a lot of the value investors on here are missing, is that the share prices aren't just declining because of a panic. They're declining because of both a panic and also a fundamental revaluation of the business based on what is happening.

Is your mate revaluing the businesses based on what's happening? I bet he isn't (because he can't; the impact is unknowable). But he/she should be trying. Revenue is going down. Economy is hitting a recession. Demand will be suppressed for a long time due to big hits to our main industry (tourists staying away) and less money recirculating.

Personally I have, for a long time, invested assuming a recession is just around the corner. This means avoiding every flavour of the month. With shares of a popular flavour you tend to pay too much to buy a growth story that may or may not happen as projected. It also usually means investing in the most boring shares possible, again to stay away from the hype. After losing big the last time Air NZ almost went bust, I subsequently decided to stay away from the tourism sector too. Too fickle, too small a margin.

There have been various fundamental re-evaluations of business models over the decades. But through it all, humans seem to still need food, clothing and shelter. Investing in themes along those lines, I would suggest would make a solid base for an enduring investment portfolio.

A few of us have been saying for weeks already that buying at this stage is crazy, but people have been doing it already and paying the price....and in my opinion will continue to. Good luck...

Such investors are only 'paying the price' if you look at such investments through 'trader glasses'. Personally I would never put money in a share if I knew that I was going to be required to sell it weeks or months later. If you buy on a prospective dividend yield and the share price goes down after you buy, you still have your prospective dividend yield.

The price set by Mr Market each day is simply an invitation to buy or sell. Even the ultimate party girl does not have to accept every invitation.

SNOOPY

[couta1]

Quite true Couta, I dont recall you ever encouraging people to follow your investing path. You seem like a genuine up front kinda guy to me who just happens to go big on HGL and has posted as such. I imagine you are down quite badly on this one at the moment so ignore Jts comment as I am sure he/she meant no malice behind it. Take care

Thanks RB, I wont be around for a while on here as my wife is going to change my password and of course you need the old password to change it back which I wont have, she can be a tough taskmaster and wont be letting me know the new one until she's thinks I should have it, happy stargazing.

[Cadalac123]

Thanks RB, I wont be around for a while on here as my wife is going to change my password and of course you need the old password to change it back which I wont have, she can be a tough taskmaster and wont be letting me know the new one until she's thinks I should have it, happy stargazing.

Good decision mate, will welcome you when you're back