Cant see any outrageous buys at the moment. Nothing like 2020.
Sure heaps are cheap but no potential 3 baggers so far
NZX50 still at same level as June 2020 - still almost 20% above the short-lived Covid crash.
Personally, time to keep the powder dry, and believe plenty to go yet. Good chance to use some simple TA for entry (not that I used it for exiting some holdings)!!
I'm looking at EBO - but SP has shown some resilience compared to the general market so far.
NZX50 still at same level as June 2020 - still almost 20% above the short-lived Covid crash.
Personally, time to keep the powder dry, and believe plenty to go yet. Good chance to use some simple TA for entry (not that I used it for exiting some holdings)!!
I'm looking at EBO - but SP has shown some resilience compared to the general market so far.
Im now very wary of companies trading on 30+ p/e's in current high interest rate environment. Priced for perfection and if they dont deliver then they get punished and re-rated down. double whammy. I.e. FPH.
I think we're going into a bear market > 20% fall. We're down about 15% year to date last time I looked. I'm very cautious. Inflation is so high and there are so many huge unknowns at this time. How high will interest rates have to go to try and fight inflation, how persistent will inflation be, how long will the war continue, will NATO get dragged into the war, what other supply chain issues will present and so on.
I have been >60% in cash and short term deposits since November 2021 and its been the best place to hide because bonds have been trashed just as much as shares. I reckon for at least the next few months as the Fed, RBNZ and other central banks tighten policy dramatically, inflation continues to roar away and interest rates continue upwards the tide is going out. The tide will turn eventually but that's not now or anytime really soon in my opinion.
I need to stop sniffing around for bargains because today's good buy could easily be tomorrow's regret. Sometimes the most difficult investment skill to master is patience. I'm getting better at that but still have much to learn.
Last edited by Beagle; 11-05-2022 at 02:19 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Best time to buy high reliable dividend payers with solid underlying fundamentals at their cheapest is when the market has priced in a big increase in interest rates AND when a market wide selloff is occurring that drags down stock prices for no reason.
bearing in mind the high interest rate environment may persist for quite some time, as can a poor performing sharemarket.
In my mind I wouldn’t be jumping in with all spare cash yet, but instead would be deploying regular amounts over the next 12 months.
Yeah dollar cost averaging over a period of time is a good strategy. I told my brother to do exactly that over the next 12-18 months last November with his share of the inheritance but he got greedy when he saw his Kiwisaver growth fund jump by a few thousand one week and threw the lot in there at once. Bet he regrets that now !
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Yeah dollar cost averaging over a period of time is a good strategy. I told my brother to do exactly that over the next 12-18 months last November with his share of the inheritance but he got greedy when he saw his Kiwisaver growth fund jump by a few thousand one week and threw the lot in there at once. Bet he regrets that now !
He'll still get massive returns if he stays invested for a very long time.
You'll probably just get massiver returns lol
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Originally Posted by Rawz
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