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  1. #21
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    [QUOTE=artemis;805222]Makes sense that tourist destinations will have an excess of accommodation, short term and long term. For a few years anyway. But let's not forget #8 wire. There will be other opportunities such as retirement communities, families looking for lifestyle options. Tech firms working remotely. And maybe like Sleepyhead and its community setting up in Ohinewai.[/QUOTE

    Expecting number 8 wire to sell 1,000 properties anytime soon may be a bit of a stretch.

  2. #22
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    I think Auckland will roll on pretty well. If immigrations stops for an extended period the regions will suffer. Rents will drop but only nominally but values could really fall in rural areas where they have exploded unreasonably.

    If you document house price inflation since we kept records, property has doubled on average every 7.8 years including through the 2 wars and the depression. NZ is not that expensive in real terms. It is hyped as expensive in relation to wages and that's true but our actual values aren't high compared to many similar markets. This is what makes real estate so low risk. Safe as houses!
    Stay Safe and Stay Inspired http://www.massiveaction.tv

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dean Letfus View Post
    I think Auckland will roll on pretty well. If immigrations stops for an extended period the regions will suffer. Rents will drop but only nominally but values could really fall in rural areas where they have exploded unreasonably.

    If you document house price inflation since we kept records, property has doubled on average every 7.8 years including through the 2 wars and the depression. NZ is not that expensive in real terms. It is hyped as expensive in relation to wages and that's true but our actual values aren't high compared to many similar markets. This is what makes real estate so low risk. Safe as houses!
    I wouldn't be so sure on that one. A price drop will be driven by unemployment and we are looking at a 15% + unemployment increase.

    "Former [New Zealand] Treasury Secretary Allan Bollard has pointed out
    that this shock is huge by contrast to previous economic crises. The Treasury is estimating a 30‐40
    percent reduction in output and 10‐17 percent downturn in the economy as a whole, and at a speed that is unprecedented"
    Last edited by ynot; 06-04-2020 at 07:59 PM. Reason: add quote

  4. #24
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    Is Auckland like London?
    "for those who have built up mini (or in some cases not-so-mini) property portfolios that rely on a constant stream of guests churning through Airbnb apartments in Bath, Barcelona or Berlin, the prospect of weeks or months without guests spells financial disaster."
    https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...-its-own-homes

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    I wouldn't be so sure on that one. A price drop will be driven by unemployment and we are looking at a 15% + unemployment increase.

    "Former [New Zealand] Treasury Secretary Allan Bollard has pointed out
    that this shock is huge by contrast to previous economic crises. The Treasury is estimating a 30‐40
    percent reduction in output and 10‐17 percent downturn in the economy as a whole, and at a speed that is unprecedented"
    Certainly... i'm not seeing the fear on people's faces YET. When the lockdown is over, they will wonder why their boss has not called them back to work. Then the fear will really set in... 15% unemployment is unheard of in generations.

  6. #26
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    Ho w about commercial property? Alot of people working at home now will stay there after this crisis is over. Office space will have to diminish. Ive spoken to people who have already had directives from head office about this. Maybe a bonus is folks working from home will be able to get tax deductions for their home office.

  7. #27
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    Anyone that thinks the Auckland property market is going to roll on like this Virus does not exist is kidding themselves. Nothing stays the same forever. Kiwi property will be no exception to what we are in for.

  8. #28
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dean Letfus View Post
    I think Auckland will roll on pretty well. If immigrations stops for an extended period the regions will suffer. Rents will drop but only nominally but values could really fall in rural areas where they have exploded unreasonably.

    If you document house price inflation since we kept records, property has doubled on average every 7.8 years including through the 2 wars and the depression. NZ is not that expensive in real terms. It is hyped as expensive in relation to wages and that's true but our actual values aren't high compared to many similar markets. This is what makes real estate so low risk. Safe as houses!
    Not this time ...kiwis ticked up during these low rates was cheaper than renting ..but now with many losing jobs, less hours +lower incomes you can't just walk away and look for cheap location etc ..this will be brutal
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." Carlos Slim Helu

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    Not this time ...kiwis ticked up during these low rates was cheaper than renting ..but now with many losing jobs, less hours +lower incomes you can't just walk away and look for cheap location etc ..this will be brutal
    As I said before, i'm still talking to those in my circle that are clueless of the impact this virus would have on the economy. Too may enjoying Xbox at home... not a lot of productivity going on but they treat it as a 'holiday'. Well what if at the end of the holiday their job is not there? No one plans ahead, all going on 'hope' while watching the Ms Ardern speech of the day.

    I can't say immigration would be that hot from now on. How will tourism come back to NZ if AirNZ says even after 5 years they will never get back their 'international routes' like they were few months ago?

    There was a short moment back in February where I though to take my money and buy more NZ real estate. The inconvenience of owning more was what put me off and instead, exchanged the vast majority of my cash into USD and set it to my US broker. (I discussed this in another post); the process was not straight forward but hindsight.. WELL worth it - this week I hope to invest the remainder of the cash.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dean Letfus View Post
    I think Auckland will roll on pretty well. If immigrations stops for an extended period the regions will suffer. Rents will drop but only nominally but values could really fall in rural areas where they have exploded unreasonably.

    If you document house price inflation since we kept records, property has doubled on average every 7.8 years including through the 2 wars and the depression. NZ is not that expensive in real terms. It is hyped as expensive in relation to wages and that's true but our actual values aren't high compared to many similar markets. This is what makes real estate so low risk. Safe as houses!
    Come on Dean, tell me I'm wrong. Sing me that old property can never go down tune again.

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