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Thread: Bank stocks

  1. #141
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    should be a good day monday , glad we reversed the short again the other day gone ballistic up since then
    one step ahead of the herd

  2. #142
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    banks getting hammered , looks like lows going to re tested again
    one step ahead of the herd

  3. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    banks getting hammered , looks like lows going to re tested again
    Reason being the reintroduction of lockdown/grim GDP figures in Aus?

  4. #144
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JSwan View Post
    Reason being the reintroduction of lockdown/grim GDP figures in Aus?
    yep , stock prices have to factor in more bad debts being likely. I see the regulator in aus allowing banks to pay out 50% divs now so be interesting in light of the new lock downs if they do this
    one step ahead of the herd

  5. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by JSwan View Post
    Reason being the reintroduction of lockdown/grim GDP figures in Aus?
    Could be... Two cases in SA today and still cases in NSW.


    Housing market could still see major recession to come as coronavirus ravages economy

  6. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    yep , stock prices have to factor in more bad debts being likely. I see the regulator in aus allowing banks to pay out 50% divs now so be interesting in light of the new lock downs if they do this
    Just putting up the web reference to confirm what Bull has said;

    Here is what was said on 7th April 2020.

    https://www.apra.gov.au/news-and-pub...s-and-insurers

    "In a letter to ADIs (Authorised Deposit Taking Institutions) general insurers, life companies and private health insurers, APRA outlined its expectations that these institutions limit discretionary capital distributions in the months ahead, including deferrals or prudent reductions in dividends."


    Here is what was said on 29th July 2020.

    https://www.apra.gov.au/news-and-pub...s-and-insurers

    "In additional guidance for the banking sector, APRA (Australian Prudential Regulation Authority) has indicated that for the remainder of the calendar year bank boards should:

    1/ Seek to retain at least half of their earnings when making decisions on capital distributions (and utilise dividend reinvestment plans and other initiatives to offset the diminution in capital from capital distributions where possible);
    2/ Conduct regular stress testing to inform decision-making and demonstrate ongoing lending capacity; and
    3/ Make use of capital buffers to absorb the impacts of stress, and continue to lend to support households and businesses."

    In New Zealand, from 2nd April 2020, the paying of dividends by banks was specifically banned " during the period of economic uncertainty caused by COVID-19. But it doesn't look like paying dividends by banks was ever something that was specifically banned in Australia. The way I read that July release is that if an interim dividend decision has been deferred, then a final dividend of up to half the annual earnings could still be made, capital strength requirements permitting.

    To further expand on how flexible capital buffers can be. (From HY2020 p40 Interim Financial Report for Westpac)

    "On 19 March 2020 APRA announced that during the period of disruption caused by COVID-19 APRA would not be concerned if banks were not meeting its 10.5% “unquestionably strong benchmark” for CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1 Capital). Banks may use their current capital buffers provided they remain above the current regulatory requirement (currently at least 8.0% for domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs)). APRA has also indicated that they do not envisage reinstating the “unquestionably strong” benchmarks for at least 12 months"

    The potential 'threat' to reinstate capital buffers in just twelve months indicates that banks can't be 'too flexible' for long. 'Flexibility' is likely to require a concomitant 'cash issue' to square up the books.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 04-08-2020 at 06:59 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  7. #147
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    bit of a fake rally yesterday , support at GFC lows which were also the covid lows at this stage
    one step ahead of the herd

  8. #148
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    If there was a move to MMT from the NZ or AUSSI RB we could see lower over night but the Aussi reserve bank has not restarted QE 2 yet.... that im aware of. MMT would likely be viewed as an automatic default of government bonds anyway and trigger a review of credit ratings on sovereigns.

  9. #149
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    A bit of a roller coaster in the bank shares over the past few days -- looks like pick a good entry point & time to press the button to go.. then wait .. useful in accumulating & averaging down again

    we may be a while off seeing return to 'normal times' .. but when we do, buying into the bank certainly seems to be showing a Dividend Yield multiple of the return for tossing coin at the bank for a tiny bit of usury, which IRD then help themselves to fairly sizable portion of as reward for the exercise..

    North of 8% + Full if not partial Imputation credits dont look too foul at all, against the pittance the suckers depositing readies are having to stomach (before the IRD heist comes out)

    Now note - I did say 'normal times'

    Normal times may also see something else too - a ratcheting up the SP's - not only HGH but also the two big NZX listed Aussies
    Last edited by nztx; 07-08-2020 at 01:07 AM.

  10. #150
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    I see that a certain broker had a bit to say about NAB etc and a sort of mention about if BNZ returned to NZX

    A dream, hope whatever .. if it does happen could provide additional variety, should NAB get bored
    of their captive Kiwi Money Box and were to consider spinning it back into listed territory.

    The once Corporate Raider on the earlier Board wont likely be anywhere around, as he was in BNZ's distant past
    & dubious NZX times in times of an earlier Labour Party 'Spin the Disaster' session in hands of Douglas (if memory
    serves correct also holder of an added accolade to include a failed Pig Farm company in distant past)


    The earlier session does have something similar to current times - with avalanches of funny money being pulled out fresh air
    & created .. and in places lost (as well) along with umpteen 10's or 100's of thousands of Kiwi jobs sacrificed in process.


    At the end of the current term, many could be forgiven if they were once again sitting down wondering what has
    been achieved out of the exercise, after the fairy dust has since mysteriously long evaporated and the country sees
    itself wading through gumboot deep long term debt, at whim of prevailing currents of foreign jacked up (or depressed)
    Interest rates for a very very long time thereafter ahead.. (unless a future Govt does something very very stupid to
    try rein it in faster than is beneficial)
    Last edited by nztx; 07-08-2020 at 01:38 AM.

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