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  1. #21
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rep View Post
    You have to as always check the benchmark and understand the concept of efficacy.

    As a comparison, let's take a common and now funded vaccine example - GSK's Varilrix varicella vaccine (for immunisation against chicken pox) had in a large active controlled clinical trial of children 12-22 months of age over 35 months results as follows:
    - Single dose of Varilrix - vaccine efficacy to confirmed varicella of any severity was 65.4%
    - Single dose of Varilrix - vaccine efficacy to a moderate to severe case of varicella it was reported at efficacy of 90.7% (97.5% confidence level).

    Further study in Uruguay indicated that 6 years after a universal mass vaccination (or more than 90% coverage) in 1999, the 2005 study indicated that hospitalisations amongst children was reduced by 81% and a study in Australia indicated that hospitalisation of pre-schoolers was reduced by 72.5% during a funded vaccination programme period compared to the pre-vaccine period.

    A second booster dose has indicated a 2600% increase in antibody count compared to a single dose alone. There isn't a published study on the efficacy of trials of a second dose but it would be expected that the efficacy would be better to any level of infection and that the efficacy to a moderate to severe case would be higher than a single dose. (NZ funds a single dose for pre-schoolers not two doses)

    Conclusion: Single dose 65% efficacy against any case doesn't sound like much but 90.7% efficacy against a moderate to severe case is the one worth noting - especially against the backdrop of understanding that it can reduce the level of severity and reduce the level of hospitalisations by 70-80%.

    CDC Flu Vaccination 2019-20
    In terms of the report that you noted, the 2019-20 CDC report on vaccine effectiveness, the discussion notes that the flu vaccination for 2019-20 has modelled to have prevented 4.4 million illness, 2.3 million medical visits, 58,000 hospitalisations and 3,500 deaths but it does note that more effective vaccines are needed.

    Summary
    So for any COVID-19 vaccine, ideally we get a vaccine that is highly effective at preventing any COVID-19 infection (efficacy against confirmed infection against COVID-19) but if that isn't the case if it had a high effectiveness against a moderate to severe case then it's going to potentially reduce severity and therefore hospitalisations/deaths/ongoing issues associated with a moderate to severe presentation of COVID-19. It potentially won't be globally eradicated like smallpox was in 1980 but it might get to the point where it could become much more manageable in conjunction with more effective antiviral or treatments for moderate to severe case presentations that require hospitalisation.

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/c...20-4?r=US&IR=T

    The World Health Organisation on Saturday also threw doubt on the possibility that immunity to the virus could be induced.

    In a statement about plans by some governments to introduce so-called “immunity passports,” for those previously infected with the virus the organisation said in a statement that: “there is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.”

    Other scientists have also raised the possibility that a working virus may never emerge to deal with COVID-19.

    In an interview with The Observer David Nabarro, professor of global health at Imperial College, London said the world had to realise that a vaccine may not be possible.
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  2. #22
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    Which is why an effective treatment is more likely to be ground breaking in my view

  3. #23
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    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ing/111647248/

    Yeah well i have a couple in a front paddock...any ideas?

  4. #24
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    5 vaccines finishing phase II trials in China this July ...... http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/20200...2411560eb.html

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raz View Post
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ing/111647248/

    Yeah well i have a couple in a front paddock...any ideas?
    Well you could shear them about

  6. #26
    Membaa
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Well you could shear them about
    Did someone say shear, I desperately need a wool cut.

    BAA

  7. #27
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    Here's site for a CoVid-19 Vaccine tracker that is updated weekly. Listing all "vaccine candidates currently in Phase 1-3 trials, as well as major candidates in pre-clinical stages of development and research" https://www.raps.org/news-and-articl...accine-tracker

  8. #28
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    Default Covid-19 drug trials all over the world..........

    Quote Originally Posted by RGR367 View Post
    Here's site for a CoVid-19 Vaccine tracker that is updated weekly. Listing all "vaccine candidates currently in Phase 1-3 trials, as well as major candidates in pre-clinical stages of development and research" https://www.raps.org/news-and-articl...accine-tracker
    In connection with the above, here's a site for worldwide tracking of more 1400 drug trials that are now being done. It tracks what's happening (what phase or whether recruiting for volunteers), what drug or vaccine type is being done, where it's being done, etc... https://covid-trials.org/

  9. #29
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    "Covid-19 patients in the UK are being treated with dexamethasone today after a UK trial of the drug found it could save lives. “The treatment is immediately available and already in use on the NHS,” said health minister Matt Hancock. “It is not by any means a cure but it is the best news we have had,” Hancock told parliament today. The UK’s chief medical officers say it should be used immediately, according to the BBC. A preliminary study found that the steroid, which is already widely prescribed for treating allergies and asthma, reduces the risk of dying from covid-19 by a third for patients on ventilators, and by a fifth for those receiving oxygen

    Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-uk-begins-using-dexamethasone-to-treat-patients/#ixzz6PeBitpIT"
    So likely that symptoms are related to ones immune response?
    https://www.newscientist.com/article...reat-patients/

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    "Covid-19 patients in the UK are being treated with dexamethasone today after a UK trial of the drug found it could save lives. “The treatment is immediately available and already in use on the NHS,” said health minister Matt Hancock. “It is not by any means a cure but it is the best news we have had,” Hancock told parliament today. The UK’s chief medical officers say it should be used immediately, according to the BBC. A preliminary study found that the steroid, which is already widely prescribed for treating allergies and asthma, reduces the risk of dying from covid-19 by a third for patients on ventilators, and by a fifth for those receiving oxygen

    Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-uk-begins-using-dexamethasone-to-treat-patients/#ixzz6PeBitpIT"
    So likely that symptoms are related to ones immune response?
    https://www.newscientist.com/article...reat-patients/
    Steroids have been used to treat SARS and pneumonia for decades.
    Its a little bit rich for the UK to claim credit for this.
    I know of doctors that have used dexamethasone combined with antibiotics for atypical pneumonias on themselves(and patients)

  11. #31
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    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12341141

    So what happened to her "natural immunity"?
    Can't trust that natural immunity !
    "Similar cases have also been reported around the world, with more than 14 US sailors from the USS Theodore Roosevelt testing positive for coronavirus a second time last month."
    "It appears to be a delayed immune response that is more serious in some persons and that reacts to remaining virus in various organs."
    ""There are so many unknowns and the CDC (US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention) cannot tell whether the virus was dormant all this time or if it was a new contraction."

  12. #32
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    Are there indications in Italy that this virus is becoming more efficient at spreading by being less lethal?
    "The clinical impression I have is that the virus is changing in severity," said Prof Bassetti"
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12341572



    https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...23751584000031
    The determinants of host resistance/susceptibility are usually multifactorial and include not only a variety of host factors but environmental ones as well."
    "

  13. #33
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    Oh no
    Not again.Watching brief.
    More swine herds in China to be culled?
    "Experts believe most people would lack immunity against G4 viruses, and despite seasonal flu vaccines protecting against the 2009 H1N1 virus, G4 viruses are different enough that seasonal flu vaccines would be unlikely to provide protection or prevent onward human-to-human transmission."
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2...swine-flu.html

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by RGR367 View Post
    5 vaccines finishing phase II trials in China this July ...... http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/20200...2411560eb.html
    Got to take any news from China with extreme caution... I wouldn't even believe a word the CCP says...
    A couple of nights ago it was reported that the huge locust swarms which had been in Africa have come through Asia and into China...
    It was reported by Chinese media that only 16 acres of land was effected by Locusts... !!!
    Also with the flooding China had, barely a few deaths were reported and the danger scale from flooding was set at lowest possible risk ...

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crypto Crude View Post
    Got to take any news from China with extreme caution... I wouldn't even believe a word the CCP says...
    A couple of nights ago it was reported that the huge locust swarms which had been in Africa have come through Asia and into China...
    It was reported by Chinese media that only 16 acres of land was effected by Locusts... !!!
    Also with the flooding China had, barely a few deaths were reported and the danger scale from flooding was set at lowest possible risk ...
    Here's some news you may not like, and the source is not Chinese.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...06-p5599t.html

  16. #36
    Guru Crypto Crude's Avatar
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    Greater fool...
    The name says it all really....
    ..
    Watch the International cover up to protect the Chinese commies...
    The commies that pay huge money in advertisements which fund these businesses that require media publications of their tone...

  17. #37
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    China is heavily involved in Australian and Sydney politics and media...
    Lots of business and exports to China are on the line so you have to be on your best behaviour and only speak about the Chinese how they want you to speak..

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc...ticle/10962226

  18. #38
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    Wouldn't it be nice if we keep the discussions along the thread's Topic?

  19. #39
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    "Given the significant level of “doubt” about vaccine candidates, it’s appropriate to look at how particular non-vaccine antiviral agents, which reduce coronavirus replication or are viricidal (kill the virus), are progressing through R&D in the COVID space."
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...content=link-3

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    "Given the significant level of “doubt” about vaccine candidates, it’s appropriate to look at how particular non-vaccine antiviral agents, which reduce coronavirus replication or are viricidal (kill the virus), are progressing through R&D in the COVID space."
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...content=link-3
    All these drugs will be very expensive and if approved will probably just be used for ICU patients.
    They will have no role in fighting this pandemic apart from reducing the mortality slightly in a few countries .

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