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  1. #1
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    Default Chinese / NZ trade relationship

    It's looking possible China will emerge C/V faster than other major nations. With NZ's strong established Chinese trade links this could work in our favour. Dairy, meat, logging, Kiwifruit, etc.

    Exports rose $302 million (31 percent) to $1.3 billion in January 2020 compared with January 2019.

    The rise was led by an increase in dairy, meat and logging, Statistics New Zealand says.
    Last edited by ynot; 16-04-2020 at 08:36 PM. Reason: Add quote

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    It's looking possible China will emerge C/V faster than other major nations. With NZ's strong established Chinese trade links this could work in our favour. Dairy, meat, logging, Kiwifruit, etc.

    Exports rose $302 million (31 percent) to $1.3 billion in January 2020 compared with January 2019.

    The rise was led by an increase in dairy, meat and logging, Statistics New Zealand says.
    And who best placed to capitalise on this than QEX who as I understand has good established contacts and a China based bond store. Comments ?
    thanks,
    -dodgy (holder)

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by dodgy View Post
    And who best placed to capitalise on this than QEX who as I understand has good established contacts and a China based bond store. Comments ?
    thanks,
    -dodgy (holder)
    Yes I did see this is expected with a great dependency on China being the longer term risk....

  4. #4
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    China is being sued for trillions of dollars over coronavirus and International trading relations could forever be changed...
    In some form, The World will effectively turn on China ... so these sorts of investments, trading with China need to be extremely cautious... would be right off my radar especially for now...
    cc
    Nakamoto means of Central origin ...

  5. #5
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    ^ This...

    The US foreign policy is going to turn more negative on China, a retoric of 'blaming them' for COVID. This may become a major part of the presidential election. The US will encourage for others to turn away from China, we may have to pick sides.... China will also rachet up their authoritarian stance on their own people and control over the economy.

    Through lack of exports, their GDP growth will slow, but likely they will try and prop it up with more infrastructure building. Chinas ability to compete on basic manufacturing (textiles is a canary in the coal mine for me) has been declining for some time and because of this companies will look to diversify their supply chains - will see growth in other areas of SE Asia, Pakistan/India and emerging economies. There are some general trends been going on for some time, COVID will bring it all forward.

    Time frame 5-10yrs before the boil comes off? Who knows....

  6. #6
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    Although my legal practice was in a different area, I agree with this author that the lawsuits against China are laughable: https://www.justsecurity.org/69460/d...r-coronavirus/

    On the other hand, it's not hard to see certain political "leaders" ramping up the China bashing as a means of distracting from their own failures and/or pandering to populism.

    Regardless, whether we like it or not, China is too big a part of the world economy for countries to give it the cold shoulder when they desperately need to reboot their own economies.

    As there's a separate thread for QEX, I'll post my comments on that company there.

  7. #7
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    China is our largest market & 30% of our exports.
    This over-dependence on one market was once seen as a weakness, but with China coming out of this faster than the US or EU, these established trade links are now seen as a big advantage for NZ economy.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Skies View Post
    China is our largest market & 30% of our exports.
    This over-dependence on one market was once seen as a weakness, but with China coming out of this faster than the US or EU, these established trade links are now seen as a big advantage for NZ economy.
    I do not really think China is coming out of "it" faster than the US or EU. Do you honestly believe their figures? And our exports to an extent (primary produce) are not affected by being "in" or "out" of this. Tourism which was also reliant on China is going to suffer regardless. This Wuhan Coronavirus Pandemic is causing a lot of global crap and the CCP could have done something about it but did not.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    It's looking possible China will emerge C/V faster than other major nations. With NZ's strong established Chinese trade links this could work in our favour. Dairy, meat, logging, Kiwifruit, etc.

    Exports rose $302 million (31 percent) to $1.3 billion in January 2020 compared with January 2019.

    The rise was led by an increase in dairy, meat and logging, Statistics New Zealand says.
    This is the wrong slot for this discussion, it is not a share should be under general discussion, please remove.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    I do not really think China is coming out of "it" faster than the US or EU. Do you honestly believe their figures? And our exports to an extent (primary produce) are not affected by being "in" or "out" of this. Tourism which was also reliant on China is going to suffer regardless. This Wuhan Coronavirus Pandemic is causing a lot of global crap and the CCP could have done something about it but did not.
    So will Chinese demand for our exports reduce dramatically or not ?

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