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  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    So everyone in agreement here, it's going to be a V recovery ?
    NZX50 looks like a V to me. Possibly the economic effects of the lockdown are yet to fully flow through, economy is still missing international tourism but with an Aussie bubble that is 50% of the tourist market back. I suspect it won't be another 10 years for the next opportunity of a lifetime though but I have been wrong before.

  2. #82
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    Default Anyone taking notice?

    About a month ago I posted a chart of SP500 which said it would go down (to 2600) then up to approx 3100. At the time it was about 2880

    I post the chart of 3rd May again here for ref

    Attachment 11646

    3100 seemed a long way away then with everyone bearish (hence the title of this thread) but here we are now 3115 as I type
    Interestingly we never had a decent down leg (impact of more QE ?) during the predicted pattern but it is still valid.

    So at this point NOW we wait for a confirmation that the trend has changed downwards before going short big time with main target 2200 but take some profits if it hits 2760

    I will discuss the confirmation when/if it occurs so we can all be sure of what I am saying
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    About a month ago I posted a chart of SP500 which said it would go down (to 2600) then up to approx 3100. At the time it was about 2880

    I post the chart of 3rd May again here for ref

    Attachment 11646

    3100 seemed a long way away then with everyone bearish (hence the title of this thread) but here we are now 3115 as I type
    Interestingly we never had a decent down leg (impact of more QE ?) during the predicted pattern but it is still valid.

    So at this point NOW we wait for a confirmation that the trend has changed downwards before going short big time with main target 2200 but take some profits if it hits 2760

    I will discuss the confirmation when/if it occurs so we can all be sure of what I am saying
    Sorry Pete, I did see your original post. Appreciate your interpretation.

  4. #84
    IMO
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    Thanks Peat, please keep sharing your expertise there. BBOZ bear trading fund is with in a few cents of what i paid for it (since sold)back in Feb!

  5. #85
    Advanced Member Entrep's Avatar
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  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Thanks Peat, please keep sharing your expertise there. BBOZ bear trading fund is with in a few cents of what i paid for it (since sold)back in Feb!
    When should we buy BBOZ? or BEAR?(for the more conservative)

  7. #87
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    A dangerous naive question.Im not a licensed qualified financial advisor for one.
    Not reckoing anything for these risky plays. But for me, i want exposure to the down side in a hedging type way.I have Gold for Global. BBOZ and BEAR are others for ones Australian exposure. Peats T/A is a very helpful tool.

  8. #88
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    I had a dabble with BBOZ. It does not always behave as you would expect. Be warned. I was happy to get out with 10% loss.

  9. #89
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    probably overstepping the mark with my clarity here. PLEASE NOTE MY SIGNATURE DISCLAIMER

    We all know that one should not follow a random stranger on the internet and all investment decisions rest entirely with the pusher of the button.

    Patterns are probabalistic which like nuclear ballistic means they can blow up in your face really fast. Posiition sizing to limit risk , sleepless nights when it all goes wrong , frustration when they go right, (just after hitting your stop) are the joys of speculators and none of us want that.

    I once wrote a poem on this

    We are experiencing a big lull in volatility at the moment and this could come back at any time with a vengeance. Which means prices could go either way very quickly.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    A dangerous naive question.Im not a licensed qualified financial advisor for one.
    Not reckoing anything for these risky plays. But for me, i want exposure to the down side in a hedging type way.I have Gold for Global. BBOZ and BEAR are others for ones Australian exposure. Peats T/A is a very helpful tool.
    Hopefully Peat's disclaimer is not for my benefit. I am only asking for opinions I won't be taking anyone to court as I am a believer in people taking responsibility for their actions but I am always interested in other people's opinions. Usually I am looking for some confirmation bias as it is a bad habit of mine. I hope no one ever listens to me. Based on the amount of research I bother to do I could be classified as a gambler/speculator rather than an investor, although ideally I want a large portfolio of regular dividend paying companies my laziness is a problem.
    In that vein Peat how do you short the S&P500?

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