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  1. #1
    Ancient Mariner HKG2301's Avatar
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    Default Dead Cat bounce?

    OK, so I'm relatively new to the NZ market, investing in the NZX less than a year. It's still not clear to me how much we're driven by the US markets, but assuming there's a link (at least during Covid), should we not be calling this a Dead Cat Bounce and preparing for a re-test of the March lows? That's certainly on the cards for the US markets, especially if they've badly mis-timed their Covid 're-opening', which is likely. Will our market ignore another 20% drop in the US markets, or should we be battening down the hatches as well?

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by HKG2301 View Post
    OK, so I'm relatively new to the NZ market, investing in the NZX less than a year. It's still not clear to me how much we're driven by the US markets, but assuming there's a link (at least during Covid), should we not be calling this a Dead Cat Bounce and preparing for a re-test of the March lows? That's certainly on the cards for the US markets, especially if they've badly mis-timed their Covid 're-opening', which is likely. Will our market ignore another 20% drop in the US markets, or should we be battening down the hatches as well?
    Billion dollar question. Nobody knows.l

  3. #3
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by HKG2301 View Post
    OK, so I'm relatively new to the NZ market, investing in the NZX less than a year. It's still not clear to me how much we're driven by the US markets, but assuming there's a link (at least during Covid), should we not be calling this a Dead Cat Bounce and preparing for a re-test of the March lows? That's certainly on the cards for the US markets, especially if they've badly mis-timed their Covid 're-opening', which is likely. Will our market ignore another 20% drop in the US markets, or should we be battening down the hatches as well?
    Why would there be another 20% drop in US markets? Surely the best predictor of future US market prices is today's price? What do you know that all other market participants in the US do not know? Like ynot said, its really is the $m question. No one knows what tomorrow's prices will bring.
    Last edited by blackcap; 06-05-2020 at 07:51 AM. Reason: spelling

  4. #4
    Advanced Member Entrep's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Surely the best predictor of future US market prices is today's price?
    Equally as valid for 23 March and look where we are

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Entrep View Post
    Equally as valid for 23 March and look where we are
    It certainly is. But you cannot tell me that you know for certain or are even positively sure which direction markets are going to take tommorrow or next week.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    It certainly is. But you cannot tell me that you know for certain or are even positively sure which direction markets are going to take tommorrow or next week.
    Absolutely no idea. For the record my guess is down.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    Billion dollar question. Nobody knows.l
    Exactly and recently Warren Buffet at his annual meeting made the same claim. No one and NO ONE with certainty and reliability and consistently time after time can tell you where the share markets will be tomorrow, next month, or next 2 or 3 years. What Buffet kept saying in his slide show presentation: "Never bet against America" and he's demonstrated many examples in his meeting of times in the past how the US came from nothing, to a super power, netting Americans to live a high standard of living with the highest disposable income around the world - all in a period of 230 years. And this is while OTHER nations around the world were competing against the US - ie the EU model, is failing...

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    Quote Originally Posted by SBQ View Post
    Exactly and recently Warren Buffet at his annual meeting made the same claim. No one and NO ONE with certainty and reliability and consistently time after time can tell you where the share markets will be tomorrow, next month, or next 2 or 3 years. What Buffet kept saying in his slide show presentation: "Never bet against America" and he's demonstrated many examples in his meeting of times in the past how the US came from nothing, to a super power, netting Americans to live a high standard of living with the highest disposable income around the world - all in a period of 230 years. And this is while OTHER nations around the world were competing against the US - ie the EU model, is failing...
    Yes I heard him, but then he does have a vested interest in wanting to talk the market up. Like all great empires they eventually will go down.

  9. #9
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    I just said coincidentally (before seeing this thread ) on the Ebos thread that this is NOT a DCB

    over 50% retracement and six weeks long so far means shallow and brief are not fit descriptions of what is going on.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    Yes I heard him, but then he does have a vested interest in wanting to talk the market up. Like all great empires they eventually will go down.
    The Roman Empire went down. The Egyptian, etc. A question of 'when' will the US empire go down? Not in mine or my children's lifetime. If it's a question of WWIII where everyone blows each other up... no investment asset would matter as they would all crumble to ashes.. gold would be worthless.. everything. But for the meantime, Buffet is correct.

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