Dead Cat bounce?

[peat]

for this scenario there a few ways that I might respond to my own prognostications

(i) given that its all one market I would consider reducing exposure within my portfolio. Take some profits etc. for instance I am now completely out of PAZ and AFT and yes yes I know they've gone up further (because I left some for others coz I'm a nice guy lol)
(ii) short the SP500 using CFD's - as noted previously I use CMC.
(iii) go short some currency pair that is normally correlated to Risk on/Risk off eg Eur/Jpy or Aud/Usd

my disclaimer is for everybody just in case , these threads have a few lurkers I believe.

[HKG2301]

So everyone in agreement here, it's going to be a V recovery ?

Not me.

I can't accept a V-recovery or 'this time it's different' philosophy. Just don't see it, considering the wide-ranging economic effects of the global lock-down.

Yes, the US Fed and central banks have been pumping eye-watering amounts of liquidity, but how long can that 'corporate socialism' last? Forever? The death of capitalism as we know it.

Reality will eventually have to kick in: bankruptcies, job-losses, deflation then massive inflation. Every source that I trust refers to a 5 or 6 year recovery period from this depression. Minimum. And that assumes a viable Covid vaccine, which is not a given. There still isn't a vaccine available for SARS 1.

Personally, I bought heaps in the NZX at the March lows which I've been offloading the past 2 weeks. Quite a lot today, actually.

I'll then sit back and wait for the next tumble, which I see as inevitable. Probably led/triggered by the US markets, which are teetering now, IMO.

[I'm also short the SPX through long puts, and long gold, silver & PM miners. ]

[HKG2301]

NZX50 looks like a V to me. Possibly the economic effects of the lockdown are yet to fully flow through, economy is still missing international tourism but with an Aussie bubble that is 50% of the tourist market back. I suspect it won't be another 10 years for the next opportunity of a lifetime though but I have been wrong before.

Not sure about that 50% figure, Aaron.

Aussies previously made up 40% of international visitors, 24% of 'visitor spend'. Interestingly, Kiwis made up 15% of visitors to Australia, 6% of 'visitor spend'.

Of course, an exclusive Tasman bubble could pump both of those figures.

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/artic...rt%20industry.

[peat]

[I'm also short the SPX through long puts, and long gold, silver & PM miners. ]

FTR the same type of bearish patterns are forming in the PM's. Silver especially fits the same pattern, Gold is a bit more extended but could well trigger the same effect

[HKG2301]

FTR the same type of bearish patterns are forming in the PM's. Silver especially fits the same pattern, Gold is a bit more extended but could well trigger the same effect

Thanks, Peat.

They are long-term investments for me. A no-brainer, given the inevitable inflationary effect of all this printing.

Can't argue there's a heap of manipulation in the PM markets, but the long-term trend is up, I reckon!

[Aaron]

Not sure about that 50% figure, Aaron.

Aussies previously made up 40% of international visitors, 24% of 'visitor spend'. Interestingly, Kiwis made up 15% of visitors to Australia, 6% of 'visitor spend'.

Of course, an exclusive Tasman bubble could pump both of those figures.

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/artic...rt%20industry.

Sorry fake news, I knew it was a decent chunk though.

If you don't mind me asking what did you buy in March and what criteria do you use when making a purchase?

Just being nosy.

[HKG2301]

If you don't mind me asking what did you buy in March and what criteria do you use when making a purchase?

Back half of March, I bought IPL, PCT, KPG, IFT, ARG, SPG, APL, ARV, MET - you can probably spot the trend there - as well as CEN, FRE, ABA, BGP and (sadly) NZR.

Two main reasons: they were either on my shopping list, and/or stood out as grossly oversold.

I now think they are getting overbought again (post-covid exuberance?), so have eased out of many of those holdings. I still have core positions that I'll hang onto, but I'm otherwise content to wait and see how this drama unfolds.

If what we've witnessed in recent global events (especially in Washington) had been portrayed in The West Wing TV series (say), we'd have called it WAY over-dramatised and OTT. But that's the real world we're living in now, it seems...

[Joshuatree]

The world is unlocking and its chocks away atm, euphoria growing.Whos looking at the daily deaths anymore, who's skirting around other people still, who's stuck in a traffic jam.Gotta cash in on this mania ehh .FOMO is back with a vengance. Warning ,warning, warning.

[ynot]

The world is unlocking and its chocks away atm, euphoria growing.Whos looking at the daily deaths anymore, who's skirting around other people still, who's stuck in a traffic jam.Gotta cash in on this mania ehh .FOMO is back with a vengance. Warning ,warning, warning.

Yea right.

[kiora]

""When market volatility increases, liquidity decreases as market makers reduce the inventory they are allowed to carry within their portfolio," the investor explained."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-vie...160248892.html