Dead Cat bounce?

[ynot]

[QUOTE=SBQ;813269]

I'm not buying it. Let me show you 2 links:
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...ons2-hires.png

and recently Buffet's response: 'Never Bet Against America'
https://www.investopedia.com/5-takea...eeting-4843875

I don't know about you or most of the people on this forum but Buffet's words should mean a lot more than any other NZ based financial advisor or critic.

I have great respect for Buffet but for the first time for me his words regarding not betting against the US were driven from self preservation and or delusion that US can never fail. Personally I think for many reasons their best years are behind them.

[SBQ]

Nothing against Buffett but he has just bet against America. He has had 2nd thoughts and sold out of Airlines. Thats about as big a warning as he can give us.And im not going near ETFs at this point unless they are negatively related to the mkt.

You mean airlines are "THE" proxy of American businesses? haha..
What % of businesses Berkshire owns that are American? The position in airlines was tiny and pretty much insignificant to the whole operations of Berkshire.

Any other comments against the graph I posted? I hear people think this time it's going to be different. As different as those I heard in 2008 that said the US was going to fall.

In the previous post, negative interest rates will erode the NZD currency as how it's been shown in Europe. Almost all our banks in NZ are Australian, maybe the NZ Reserve Bank has an interest to charge these banks $ in negative rate interest territory (as retail banks are required to PAY the central bank for parking their funds there...)

[SBQ]

[QUOTE=ynot;813275]

I have great respect for Buffet but for the first time his words regarding not betting against the US were driven from self preservation and or dillusion that US can never fail. Personally I think for many reasons their best years are behind them.

You may seem to view it this way sitting on this side of the world. As an investor, the +s are far more in the US than in NZ. Lower taxes, lower regulations, highest disposable income per capita in the world. Why would I stand for investing anything in NZ? The flow of innovation continues on in America (why did Elon Musk move to America? why do countries like China have to copy and steal things from America? In uni if a professor catches a student copying and cheating, they're kicked out. But in the real world, China is let off the hook for selling copies out the back door to other countries... what i'm getting at is America's secret sauce is still there. No one has to believe me but that Dow Jones graph is very convincing to me where America is heading.

[Joshuatree]

I think its highly likely 2nd 3rd 4th etc Covid waves are going to create havoc in USA and take them down a horrible hole, economy and all.Lets face it many of the states will have bought it on themselves because they wanted to get a haircut.Haircut they will get alright. Buffett has given us the big clue and naturally he is patriotic.Apple pie.

[blackcap]

I think its highly likely 2nd 3rd 4th etc Covid waves are going to create havoc in USA and take them down a horrible hole, economy and all.Lets face it many of the states will have bought it on themselves because they wanted to get a haircut.Haircut they will get alright. Buffett has given us the big clue and naturally he is patriotic.Apple pie.

Can you spell out how this is going to take them down a horrible hole? Why would the rest of the world (Europe in particular) not also be taken down this horrible hole? Remembering Europe has more deaths per capita and worse outcomes than the US?

From a market perspective only (empathy aside) old people dying in droves is a good thing. It eliminates those that do not contribute and are net dependent on the state. So possibly the US markets, if they remain open, and old people die off will benefit relatively greater than other markets that try to preserve their elderly?

I don't know the final outcome either, its possible that the second and third waves etc will be bad, but then NZ is not immune either.

[Joshuatree]

Im hoping like hell that NZ and Aus are nearly there but the numbers of people completely ignoring social distancing and bubbles is pretty scary. Im hearing this anecdotally and its not just young people but folks of all ages. We are on a knife edge atp. Yes not just the USA.

[ynot]

Can you spell out how this is going to take them down a horrible hole? Why would the rest of the world (Europe in particular) not also be taken down this horrible hole? Remembering Europe has more deaths per capita and worse outcomes than the US?

From a market perspective only (empathy aside) old people dying in droves is a good thing. It eliminates those that do not contribute and are net dependent on the state. So possibly the US markets, if they remain open, and old people die off will benefit relatively greater than other markets that try to preserve their elderly?

I don't know the final outcome either, its possible that the second and third waves etc will be bad, but then NZ is not immune either.

Unemployment for starters and who said other nations were not heading south.

[HKG2301]

From a market perspective only (empathy aside) old people dying in droves is a good thing. It eliminates those that do not contribute and are net dependent on the state. So possibly the US markets, if they remain open, and old people die off will benefit relatively greater than other markets that try to preserve their elderly?

Harsh.

Also, not sure why you think the over 70's are "net dependant on the state". Retirees in the first world, and the US in particular, are the ones with most of the private wealth! It's more the millennials that are penny-less, still living with their parents.

Regardless, if the markets are all enjoying a Covid-driven race to the bottom, gotta assume it will be led by the US if they try to 're-open' without a vaccine. They don't have universal healthcare, 30 million are already unemployed (with many more to come) and they have guns, lots of guns. It's like fanning a bush-fire.

Don't mean to be political, just trying to read the markets and plan ahead...

[blackcap]

Harsh.

Also, not sure why you think the over 70's are "net dependant on the state". Retirees in the first world, and the US in particular, are the ones with most of the private wealth! It's more the millennials that are penny-less, still living with their parents.

Regardless, if the markets are all enjoying a Covid-driven race to the bottom, gotta assume it will be led by the US if they try to 're-open' without a vaccine. They don't have universal healthcare, 30 million are already unemployed (with many more to come) and they have guns, lots of guns. It's like fanning a bush-fire.

Don't mean to be political, just trying to read the markets and plan ahead...

Not harsh at all, I did preface it with a "from a market perspective only". Over 70's are not net contributors. (They are all receiving some sort of benefit etc) Yes retirees have the wealth, but it is lazy wealth. Better they pop their clogs and the young entrepreneurs inherit it to invest and do stuff. Again before you call me harsh, again just from a market perspective only. I am not advocating we kill people or let our elderly die, just trying to understand like you the impact on markets and not trying to be political either.

[peat]

here is the one for the shorter term. Note that in this case the dotted line were drawn earlier so it is already tracking kind of on target

Attachment 11503

It is good to put it out there and be judged haha

I see this as tracking okay at this point because we have already reached the first target and the second target. Price is more important than time !

Attachment 11506