sharetrader
Page 4 of 4 FirstFirst 1234
Results 31 to 38 of 38
  1. #31
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Location
    wellington mostly
    Posts
    125

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I see the fact that the NZX50 is back to its level on 31 December 2019 as a warning that the market is currently not pricing risk and the underlying state of the economy appropriately.l.
    fundamentally agree, favourite examples are watching CVT, AIR, and KMD. Still think CO2 is massively undervalued, although it seems to be correcting.
    suggest that there are trading - rather than investment - gains to be made though...

  2. #32
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Location
    wellington mostly
    Posts
    125

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    I have nibbled at some aus stocks and bought some MET and recently CVT
    what are your views on my post on hive and inventory valuation in the CVT thread?

  3. #33
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    713

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tommy_d View Post
    fundamentally agree, favourite examples are watching CVT, AIR, and KMD. Still think CO2 is massively undervalued, although it seems to be correcting.
    suggest that there are trading - rather than investment - gains to be made though...
    CO2 likely moving due to recent developments finally - recommend subscribing to the Carbon Match newsletter for good summaries of news. Last update June 4th:

    NZU Update

    So far it has been an exciting week for sellers. Carbon Match had reasonable volume move through yesterday up to the $27.50 mark before the action stopped - buyers and sellers are still feeling their way a little and the bid-ask spread had widened to about $1 cf our more usual 10-15 cents.

    While that is to be expected in the wake of about 500 pages of new reading material, we now need both buyers and sellers alike to take a view, share that view on screen and contribute to the price discovery that is so important as we move towards what is a whole new basis for this market.

    Many buyers, having handed in units only last week under the $25 FPO setting, now need to buy, with the $35 fixed price option both a motivator and a simple backstop.

    While the asking prices at these new much higher levels might initially seem confronting to buyers, obviously the $35 is a mark that has lifted the horizon and refocused the minds of natural sellers.

    Yes there is no guarantee that the price will necessarily get there ahead of next year but there is also no question that these announcements, once formally legislated, will serve up a new normal for carbon over the coming months, at least until auctions begin.

    With the first of these is set to be 17 March 2021 - i.e. before the end May compliance deadline, we expect that as we move through the next 9 months, attention will focus increasingly on those and their progress - some 19 million tonnes is planned to be auctioned across the four auctions scheduled for 2021.

    19 million is going to be a very significant weight in a compliance market that is only approximately 40 million tonnes, (or less due to the impacts of Covid-19) and even more if you adjust for the 8 million expected to be given / received from the EITE folks - leaving demand net of that of not more than perhaps 32 million, and again, on a Covid-unadjusted basis.

    Still, the auctions are a while off, and there's understandably a new optimism on the sell side and if you don't ask you won't get.

    So to reiterate - can we please encourage buyers and sellers to take a view, get on screen and contribute to price discovery so we can go from there.

    Carbon Match - 1pm-5pm every weekday.

  4. #34
    Legend peat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Whanganui, New Zealand.
    Posts
    6,435

    Default

    I whipped up a chart
    so yeh Back in the black and nearly back to high point pre corona
    Profits incl divs.JPG
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  5. #35
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Location
    wellington mostly
    Posts
    125

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by clip View Post
    recommend subscribing to the Carbon Match newsletter for good summaries of news. Last update June 4th
    could also just watch the boards on the underlying instrument on commtrade or carbonmatch markets rather than wait for an email eh...

  6. #36
    Legend
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Everywhere
    Posts
    6,924

    Default

    Yes significant swing from the very bottom -1100K to 172K positive at week end

    Net Recovery now fully offsets fees, write-offs, gross returns and net realised losses into positive territory for first times in weeks across the 3 months

    Possibly more real recovery due in some areas in future, with rebalancing into Retail & Banking starting to bounce, & having realised some of the smaller riskier fish applying into more solid runners for next section of the ride up out the other side of the Covid-19 gully..
    Last edited by nztx; 06-06-2020 at 12:46 AM.

  7. #37
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    713

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tommy_d View Post
    could also just watch the boards on the underlying instrument on commtrade or carbonmatch markets rather than wait for an email eh...
    The email gives a lot more info than just the price of carbon credits

  8. #38
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Location
    In the trough
    Posts
    766

    Default

    Been a crazy ride alright and really not what I was expecting. Was fortunate enough not to have anything in the market leading up to March and have been steadily climbing back in since, with the amount of invested capital injected in having doubled through April/May, so depending on how you look at it, somewhere between a 30-45% gain.

    Despite that, I still feel a little disappointed I didn't hold onto positions that I traded out of which have subsequently raced higher, and that my Kiwisaver is still in a cash fund...what to do? As above, I wasn't expecting this kind of recovery, but if it looks like a V and smells like a V, then it's probably a big fat V.

    I've got an internal battle going on right now, with my head still saying things are going to drift lower and it's going to be a tough couple of years or so. But how much longer before this rapid recovery runs out of puff? And what percentage of gains are we likely to still see in that time? And when it does stop, what's going to happen?

    Despite the crazy rise, I don't think we'll see another crash, as too many people have just seen one and now have expectations about what's out the other side (another huge and swift recovery) and consequently massive applications of FOMO related cash...so that scenario seems unlikely.

    So I'm thinking the more likely scenario post this current run is for the markets to still drift lower, or maybe just be flat for a lengthy period (x years) to allow for reality to catch up.

    Given the above, I'm tending towards throwing the Kiwisaver at it to catch what's left of this run (it could be 20+% for all I know) and if we drift lower over the next couple of years, then am I likely to lose that 20%? Probably not, given the amount of gov/fed helicopter money and traditional depositor money looking for yield. If I have real concerns, then I guess I can put the KS back into a cash fund later. I need to remind myself of course that this KS is long term and I shouldn't get too caught up in the short term outlook...that short term thinking has already cost me dearly over the last couple of years. Onwards and upwards.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •