Geo Political Risk

[Comyn]

I believe Nuclear weapons will stop any thoughts of war between the nations. Their would be no winners if such a horrific thing happened.

[GTM 3442]

Very much looking foward to the following installments!

P2

https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/anat...naval-domains/

P3

https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/anat...untermeasures/

There is no P4

[GTM 3442]

I'm a ambitious ruthless dictator with power of life and death over people. I'm going to invade Taiwan(Poland). I have the mighty Peoples Liberation Army(Wehrmacht) at my command and the democracies are an appeasing disunited mess. What could possibly go wrong?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

What could go wrong?

Well, your examples show that a war on two fronts would be a classic example of "wrongness".

But who would be the second front?

[Davexl]

The final throws of Trump's attempt at Huawei's weakening...equivalent to a partial blockade of Chinese chipset manufacturing
And we know what typically happens with a blockade of any critical commodity - getting serious...

Trump administration slams China's Huawei, halts shipments from Intel and others, sources say

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/18/trum...urces-say.html

Speaking again of potential blockades of critical materials, China's immediate response to the above...

China eyes bolstering control of rare earths as national strategy

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...a-rare-earths/
Excerpt:
"The United States and other major economies, including European countries and Japan, depend on rare earth imports from China, the world’s dominant supplier of the materials.In 2010, China restricted exports of rare earths to Japan, when the two nations were at odds over a territorial dispute in the East China Sea."

"In December 2020, meanwhile, China enforced a new law aimed at prohibiting exports of the nation’s cutting-edge technologies and products that could be diverted to military use."

[GTM 3442]

Speaking again of potential blockades of critical materials, China's immediate response to the above...

China eyes bolstering control of rare earths as national strategy

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...a-rare-earths/
Excerpt:
"The United States and other major economies, including European countries and Japan, depend on rare earth imports from China, the world’s dominant supplier of the materials.In 2010, China restricted exports of rare earths to Japan, when the two nations were at odds over a territorial dispute in the East China Sea."

"In December 2020, meanwhile, China enforced a new law aimed at prohibiting exports of the nation’s cutting-edge technologies and products that could be diverted to military use."

Yes, it's been interesting watching the world focus on President Trump's import controls and measures, with almost no conception of the role which export controls might play.

In a REAL trade war, not the empty rhetoric that the world has seen in the recent past.

[Marilyn Munroe]

But who would be the second front?

If it came to shooting war over Taiwan the Americans would not want their flank on the Korean Peninsula exposed to hostile forces.

They would be forced to crush the puff ball ruthless dictator to neutralise this threat. The other ruthless dictator would have to reinforce the puff ball version of himself over concerns American tank divisions would cross the Yallu river.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. Haven't the Indians some issues with China which could be resolved in their favour if China was distracted by a shooting war on the other side of the country.

[GTM 3442]

I'm not sure that the Himalayas would constitute a viable "second front". Might India's reliance on Russian equipment be an important factor?

And given the effect of the amount of ordnance that North Korea absorbed in the 1950s, I'm not sure that any US armored divisions would be capable of crossing the Yalu.

[dreamcatcher]

Covid-19 coronavirus: Wuhan virus lab scientist thought to be 'patient zero' still missing

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cov...6ZQG2WLHDDTNA/

[Davexl]

Phew! Kurt Campbell has a big job ahead...

Biden’s team heralds new American era in Asia

Seasoned envoys and policymakers set to steer nuanced new course of Asian alliance-building
treating China as strategic competitor rather than foe

by Richard Javad Heydarian

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/bidens...n-era-in-asia/

Excerpt:
"He (Kurt Campbell) has also criticized the outgoing Trump for “strain[ing] virtually every element of the region’s operating system” and ceding ground “for China to rewrite rules central to the order’s content and legitimacy” due to his unilateralist policies, from trade wars to aggressive “New Cold War” rhetoric.

Instead, Campbell has emphasized the need for “serious US re-engagement” with the region, which includes multilateralist diplomacy and trade initiatives as well as an element of calibrated cooperation with China to avoid unnecessary conflict."

[Davexl]

Will NZ take a similar attitude to Europe (vs Australia) during China / US conflict?

Blinken’s diplomatic cart will have a bumpy ride

America's relations with the rest of the world, and especially Europe, will take a lot of work to fix

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/blinke...-a-bumpy-ride/

Excerpt:

• Europeans rejoice at Biden’s victory in the presidential election, but do not think he can help America “make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader”;
• A “massive change” has come over European attitudes toward the US: “Majorities in key [EU] member states now think the US political system is broken, and that Europe cannot just rely on the US to defend it”;
• European countries “look to Berlin rather than Washington as the most important partner”;
• Europeans believe that China will be more powerful than the US within a decade “and would want their country to stay neutral” in a conflict between the US and China;
• The European Union should develop its own defense capacities; and,
• While there is “a great chance for a revival of Atlanticism,” the Biden administration “cannot take European alignment against China for granted.”