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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaa View Post
    As crazy as Trump has been he has somehow pulled his fellow nationalist Modi off India's non-aligned fence and got them used to the idea of collective co-operation and containment. That and another strategic blunder by Xi Jinping in building that road along/into India's territory and allowing an attack on their troops. The four (US, Japan, India and Aus) aren't as clever a strategy as TPP was but it's a solid foundation for future expansion and co-operation.

    Other East Asian nations (South Korea, Taiwan and Japan) managed very successful transitions from authoritarian, even dictatorial regimes to thriving market based social democracies. Was worth trying with China but I feel their sense of manifest destiny and historical grievance is stronger. Hopefully will just take a bit longer.
    Until quite recently I thought that supporting Huawei was an excellent idea, not just technically but geopolitically - it was a 'global' technology that would help to cement the bonds between China & the West to allow time for China to possibly liberalise further. I even wrote items in the South China Morning Post & in the Financial Times supporting Huawei and the mostly European countries that chose them on both technical and security manageability grounds as asserted earlier by both New Zealand and Britain not long ago.

    It also seemed that the US definately bullied 5-Eyes countries to get onside with their view which in my opinion was both anti-sovereign for the countries making the choice, and anti-competitive in the free-market trade sense too. The security claims by the US were bogus also according to the UK earlier, "UK says Huawei is manageable risk to 5G" in the Financial Times (Paywalled) and from Alex Younger MI6 in the UK, Total ban on China’s Huawei may be a mistake and it’s ‘more complicated than in or out’,
    https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/2186414/total-ban-chinas-huawei-may-be-mistake-and-its-more-complicated-or

    Huawei in the UK was finally put paid to by a combination of right wing pressure from a Conservatives clique, and the dismantling of Huawei's supply chain (by cutting out TSMC chip supply) by the US rendering Huawei adoption by the UK untenable. Germany & Canada will likely now follow the UK with their decision making.

    But after China's earlier lies on their South China Seas commitments, the New York Times papers published on Xinjiang abuses, and then the complete deceit over Hong Kong I for one decided that under President Xi there was no chance for a reconciliation between East & West, the gaps remain too wide and the trust was gone. China not even allowing Taiwan into the WHO in the middle of a global pandemic didn't help either.

    The decoupling will take time however, plenty long enough for the idiot Trump regime (you can't really call it an Administration) and President Xi to be challenged & replaced by more rational & less nationalistic forces for a safer world.
    Last edited by Davexl; 31-07-2020 at 12:49 PM.
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  2. #62
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    Good post Davexi....... like you many have woken up to Xi's aggressiveness. Perhaps he has done us all a favour long term.

  3. #63
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    Thanks Left Field.

    More on the ramifications of UK offers to repatriate Hong Kongers with BNO passports, also affecting the French led, Chinese involvement, in Hinckley Point C nuclear reactor, and the potential cancellations of billions in UK investment due to shutting out Huawei 5G.

    Hong Kong: China says it will not recognise UK overseas passports


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...seas-passports
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  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davexl View Post
    And via the Financial Times:

    US to pull nearly 12,000 troops out of Germany

    "The Trump administration is pulling nearly 12,000 troops out of Germany in a controversial move set to add to tensions within Nato.
    The decision comes after President Donald Trump last month vowed to cap US troops stationed in Germany at 25,000 unless Berlin spent more on defence for the transatlantic security alliance. "

    Seems like another reckless decision by the Trump led "regime" that doesn't make any strategic sense whatsoever, whatever you think of Germany's spending.

    Mind you - look at NZ's dismal Defence contribution - here's the wake-up call...
    https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...uncertain-age/


    Democrats and Republicans take aim at Pompeo over US troop withdrawal from Germany

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...enate-grilling

    Looks like both Democrats & Rebublicans don't trust the validity of Pompeo's decision over troop withdrawal.

    Pompeo seems to me to be an extremely hawkish "loose cannon" in the Trump regime, first over his unsubstantiated claims over Huawei 5G security,
    and now this irrational move...(Must have spent too long in the CIA, and ended up a bit paranoid perhaps - understandable but dangerous)
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  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davexl View Post
    The decoupling will take time however, plenty long enough for the idiot Trump regime (you can't really call it an Administration) and President Xi to be challenged & replaced by more rational & less nationalistic forces for a safer world.
    How will a challenge to President Xi play out? I thought he was establishing quite a solid footing.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onion View Post
    How will a challenge to President Xi play out? I thought he was establishing quite a solid footing.
    He appears to be safe for now, attempting to snuff out the Democratic freedoms of Hong Kong, one of the key sources of cross-border Democratic ideas.

    However in the longer term, he has already failed, starting with Tienanmen, a whole generation of liberal Chinese waiting for an opportunity,

    and the economic failures and mass unemployment brought on by Covid 19, he has to take responsibility for all of it, under his personality cult -

    and for people like Liu Xiaobo who kept the flame burning...writing & circulating the Democratic manifesto "Charter 08".

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...nt-liu-xiaobo/
    Last edited by Davexl; 08-08-2020 at 12:50 PM.
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  7. #67
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    This article represents the kind of stupidity and paranoia coming out of the Trump "regime",
    such is the US' desperation to demonise Huawei at all costs.

    So much for Fair Global Competition!

    Imagine how the US would respond if Intel Corporation's global chip fabrication was totally threatened?

    Totally unsubstantiated security risks based on ignorance over how your common Router works.
    Until recently, almost all Routers has easy default access usernames and passwords, to allow the user to manage the router, and to allow the ISP eg Spark & Vodafone to remotely manage the Router on your behalf. And they attempt to call this "Backdoor Access".
    This "backdoor access" was deliberate, all Router manufacturers have done this,
    almost all of them are manufactured in China in any event, not just Huawei!

    No security concerns whatsoever, it would be commercial suicide to do so - totally unsubstantiated...

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/trum...ttle-plan.html
    Last edited by Davexl; 31-07-2020 at 04:14 PM.
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  8. #68
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    An update on the situation in Hong Kong:

    Hong Kong election disqualifications and arrests deepen 'terror' fears

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...ualifications/
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  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davexl View Post
    This article represents the kind of stupidity and paranoia coming out of the Trump "regime",
    such is the US' desperation to demonise Huawei at all costs.

    So much for Fair Global Competition!

    Imagine how the US would respond if Intel Corporation's global chip fabrication was totally threatened?

    Totally unsubstantiated security risks based on ignorance over how your common Router works.
    Until recently, almost all Routers has easy default access usernames and passwords, to allow the user to manage the router, and to allow the ISP eg Spark & Vodafone to remotely manage the Router on your behalf. And they attempt to call this "Backdoor Access".
    This "backdoor access" was deliberate, all Router manufacturers have done this,
    almost all of them are manufactured in China in any event, not just Huawei!

    No security concerns whatsoever, it would be commercial suicide to do so - totally unsubstantiated...

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/trum...ttle-plan.html
    Th CNBC article is so lightweight that a butterfly's f*rt would blow it away. I doubt that whoever wrote the CNBC article had read the Finite State report.

    I am almost certain that the "senior administration official" has not read the Finite State report.

    The issue is not the default user service and administration accounts. However it would have been better if the comparisons had been with devices from other, higher-profile brands.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by GTM 3442 View Post
    Th CNBC article is so lightweight that a butterfly's f*rt would blow it away. I doubt that whoever wrote the CNBC article had read the Finite State report.

    I am almost certain that the "senior administration official" has not read the Finite State report.

    The issue is not the default user service and administration accounts. However it would have been better if the comparisons had been with devices from other, higher-profile brands.
    Yes, the REAL issue is NOT about default user service and administration accounts, but that is the pathetic level of debate the US had dropped to.

    The real issue is about the security risks of deploying Huawei in the "Core" of the 5G network, vs the "Radio Access Network" and being able to secure it correctly against malfeasance by a foreign state. With 5G, most of the intelligence is in the Core, but an increasing level of intelligence is distributed to the RAN.

    In NZ, the GCSB overruled Spark's early decision to deploy Huawei only to the RAN, to the more intelligence limited part of the network. Spark recently went with Samsung.

    In the UK, they initially limited Huawei 5G to 30% of the network in the RAN only, and stated they could "manage" the security risk. Then under pressure by Pompeo and their own Conservatives, they relented to removing Huawei from their earlier 3G / 4G Huawei networks over a period of years as the 5G option became untenable.

    By far, the UK had the most experience with using Huawei networks, almost 20 years, with a similar timeframe in NZ. The UK security establishment believed it was possible to "manage" the security situation (see above post), the GCSB which didn't have the internal resources to assess the situation, "said" it wasn't possible. I presume ASIO in Australia, (the Australian Signals directorate) convinced them.


    The reality is that Ericsson (& Nokia also??) manufacture in China, alongside Huawei, the manufacturing risks are identical, and so are the deployment risks. Operating systems code could be locked down and secured by using check-summing techniques to verify the code. The only significant risks relate to update code, being deployed without prior security vetting, or a new piece of firmware inserted redirecting a data flow elsewhere from the RAN.

    The reality now, is that Huawei 5G deployment has been rendered highly risky, not for security reasons but for supply-chain risk, thanks to the US. (See Post 61)

    GTM - I would be interested in hearing about the Finite State report, if it can be linked to or summarised for the Geopolitical thread. Otherwise we are probably both straying off-topic and getting too technical for this debate...
    Last edited by Davexl; 08-08-2020 at 12:54 PM.
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  11. #71
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    Something more about Trump & Pompeo...

    A cold war does not answer China’s challenge
    Guarding the west’s interests and values should not mean an ideological confrontation with Beijing

    Financial Times
    By Philip Stephens

    We are always trying to make sense of the present by reaching into the past. Not so long ago, fashionable commentary on the rivalry between the US and China summoned up a sage of ancient Greece. The Athenian historian Thucydides predicted inevitable conflict between an established hegemon and rising power. Now, the favoured parallel for the Sino-American confrontation is the west’s fight against Soviet communism. Neat as it may seem, that analogy is more confusing than illuminating.

    The cold war drum is being beaten most loudly by Donald Trump’s US administration. It is easy to see why. Mr Trump thinks his belligerent stance towards Beijing is worth votes in November’s presidential election. Not so long ago he was boasting about striking a trade deal with Chinese president Xi Jinping, Now, as it condemns Beijing on every front, the Trump White House wants to rally US allies to the cause. How better to do so than to draw a comparison with the west’s resolve to defeat Soviet communism. The analogy is as careless of history as it is heedless of present geopolitics.

    The US administration’s matchless ignorance was on display a week ago in a speech by Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, intended to set the terms for a united western stand against Beijing. Speaking ominously of “Communist China and the Free World’s Future”, Mr Pompeo prefaced next year’s 50th anniversary of then, president Richard Nixon’s famous “opening” to China.

    Perhaps imagining himself as the George Kennan of our times, Mr Pompeo declared that “securing our freedoms from the Chinese Communist party is the mission of our time”. Kennan, of course, was the US diplomat who set the framework for America’s cold war policy of Soviet “containment”. It was obvious from Mr Pompeo’s speech that he had read neither Kennan’s famous “long telegram” from Moscow nor glanced at the once-secret policy papers setting out the purpose of Nixon’s outreach to Beijing in 1971.
    Mr Pompeo’s premise was that Nixon’s goal had been to bring Mao’s China into the western democratic fold. On that basis, he said, it was time for everyone to admit that the policy of “opening” had failed.

    The record of the negotiations between Nixon’s envoy Henry Kissinger and the then Chinese premier Zhou Enlai tell a different story. Kissinger was an arch realist, scornful of allowing values to get in the way of hard-headed diplomacy. He did nothing to press the cause of freedom. His purpose, plain and simple, was to isolate Moscow.

    The parallel drawn between the ambitions of Mr Xi’s China and that of the former Soviet Union is equally misleading. The cold war was a struggle between competing systems. Today’s Sino-American rivalry is a contest between states.

    The Chinese regime has grand ambitions. It wants to push the US out of the western Pacific and establish its own hegemony in east Asia. It is a fair assessment that the long-term goal is to replace the US as the world’s most powerful nation. But, to borrow from Kennan’s characterisation of Soviet aims, Beijing is not seeking the defeat of capitalism across the world.

    Moscow presented the world with an alternative way of ordering society. It had fellow travellers, allies and agents in established parties across the world. This was a contest that only one side could survive. Beijing thinks in terms of “spheres of influence”. Mr Xi is not anticipating what Mr Pompeo calls the “global hegemony of Chinese communism”.

    This is not to deny the obvious clash of ideologies. On that score, however, Mr Pompeo’s rallying cry for freedom is scarcely helped by Mr Trump’s frequent public applause for unpleasant autocratic regimes, including that of Mr Xi. By the account of his former national security adviser John Bolton, the president offered personal backing to Mr Xi for the brutal crackdown against Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang province.

    The Communist party’s repression at home is indeed matched by an increasingly aggressive foreign policy: deploying military might in the South China Sea, economic sanctions against governments that dare to criticise it, and an ugly mix of coercion and threats in emerging nations. But its posture is that of the 19th-century great power rather than the 20th-century Soviet Union. It knows, too, that its claims have to be managed in the context of economic interdependence with the west. The Soviets thought they could crush capitalism. China depends on it.

    Certainly, America and its allies should speak out about human rights abuses and draw solid boundaries against aggressive behaviour by the Chinese — and be prepared to defend its values and interests in setting the framework for its relationship.

    Mr Trump and Mr Pompeo, however, are seemingly ignorant of the most important piece of advice in Kennan’s
    dispatch from Moscow. As vital as it was that the west resisted any Soviet advance, the answer was not provocation or war but to ensure “the health and vigour of our own society”.

    Kennan’s last sentence might have been written specifically for Mr Trump: “The greatest danger that can befall us in coping with this problem of Soviet communism, is that we shall allow ourselves to become like those with whom we are coping.”

    Source: Financial Times


    Last edited by Davexl; 02-08-2020 at 11:15 AM. Reason: Reading clarity
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  12. #72
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    The Finite State can be accessed here:

    https://finitestate.io/finite-state-...in-assessment/

    Five minutes or so rolling round the internet will throw up a whole bunch more, of varying degrees of sophistication and credibility.

    Although why you'd want to pfaff about with spyware etc when you have the option of a simple, virtually undetectable "kill switch" eludes me.
    Last edited by GTM 3442; 01-08-2020 at 03:50 PM.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by GTM 3442 View Post
    The Finite State can be accessed here:

    https://finitestate.io/finite-state-...in-assessment/

    Five minutes or so rolling round the internet will throw up a whole bunch more, of varying degrees of sophistication and credibility.

    Although why you'd want to pfaff about with spyware etc when you have the option of a simple, virtually undetectable "kill switch" eludes me.
    Guess the 'kill switch' is the nuclear option, the idea is to listen in, as for all vendors equipment. Wonder how Samsung would do with a similar assessment?

    Problem is, with Huawei out of the way now, the world becomes a whole lot more dangerous in a bifurcated world. China & the US are now less dependent on each other which makes the possibility of war higher, if not inevitable at some point IMO anyway.

    We'll see...
    Last edited by Davexl; 08-08-2020 at 12:56 PM.
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  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davexl View Post
    This article represents the kind of stupidity and paranoia coming out of the Trump "regime",
    such is the US' desperation to demonise Huawei at all costs.

    So much for Fair Global Competition!

    Imagine how the US would respond if Intel Corporation's global chip fabrication was totally threatened?

    Totally unsubstantiated security risks based on ignorance over how your common Router works.
    Until recently, almost all Routers has easy default access usernames and passwords, to allow the user to manage the router, and to allow the ISP eg Spark & Vodafone to remotely manage the Router on your behalf. And they attempt to call this "Backdoor Access".
    This "backdoor access" was deliberate, all Router manufacturers have done this,
    almost all of them are manufactured in China in any event, not just Huawei!

    No security concerns whatsoever, it would be commercial suicide to do so - totally unsubstantiated...

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/trum...ttle-plan.html
    There is some equivocation surrounding the definition of the term “back door” within the context of IT security professionals, however in this case I am not sure that what the administration have outlined in the article is the actual issue causing them to pressure nations away from using enterprise-grade Huawei equipment.

    Having said this, utilisation of default authentication credentials is a common method to gain access to routers by individuals, hacking groups and nation states (NK & Russia being a prominent examples). While most routers and other network devices do allow passwords to be changed as part of the configuration process, some have been discovered to still accept the default password subsequent to change. Others have additional non-documented administrative accounts enabled. Others still utilise internal webservers containing known vulnerabilities many of which are unpatchable. In this context, it could be argued that this is a “back door” method of gaining access to the device.

    Once compromised, a number of attacks can take place, such as enrolling the router or (typically) IoT device in a botnet to launch a targeted attack designed to bring down essential systems, to help spread malware (particularly crypto-ransomware in NK’s case), or to probe internal systems for confidential, classified, or proprietary information.

    So while these are real risks, there must be other issues at play with relation to Huawei.

  15. #75
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    Thanks Zaphod, the Finite State report on Huawei, describes in some detail what these technical issues might be, and yet the UKs Huawei Cyber Security Centre earlier on deemed such issues as 'manageable'. See post 70 above also...

    below,

    The geopolitically significant Chip Fabrication Wars, with TSMC playing piggy in the middle between China & the US

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/31/t...ntl/index.html
    Last edited by Davexl; 01-08-2020 at 08:37 PM.
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  16. #76
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    Meantime -

    While US-China joust in a 5G tech war, neither superpower can compete with Europe or Japan in industrial robot production

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/us-chi...al-robot-race/
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    Default NZs position

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-tipping-point


    "The 230,000-strong New Zealand Chinese population is diverse, not all are from mainland China, and those who are, voted with their feet. New Zealand politicians need to show this population that they are interested in representing all of them, not just a wealthy minority connected to the CCP."

  18. #78
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    Simply put - This is what is exercising minds in Australia right now:

    South China Sea: Inside China’s plans to claim ocean dominance

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/south-china-sea-inside-chinas-plans-to-claim-ocean-dominance/news-story/e5e0c0b8ce3ba0c03cc1262ea0bdbd3f

    In more detail from the SMH - 3 Aug 2020:

    Why is the South China Sea such a hotspot?

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/why-is-the-south-china-sea-such-a-hotspot-20200727-p55fxh.html


    AND,

    This is what should be exercising New Zealanders' minds right now:

    There could be an existential threat to NZ within the next 5 - 10 years - I hope that's wrong...

    New-Zealands Dangerous Strategic Apathy in an Uncertain Age


    https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...uncertain-age/

    If you love your country, please read this article
    - these issues cannot be ignored any longer...

    There is still time for New Zealand's Defence establishment to respond - they are fully aware of this situation but are doing next to nothing to upgrade our actual combat capability.

    Australia has upped their 10-year Defence expenditure by 40% - When is New Zealand going to respond ? - It takes political pressure from ALL of us...
    Last edited by Davexl; 08-08-2020 at 12:59 PM.
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  19. #79
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    Just who really speaks on behalf of the Philippines? - President Duterte (for China)
    or its Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr and Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana (for the US)

    I wish they would make up their minds!

    "Duterte bans exercises with US in South China Sea"

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/duterte-bans-exercises-with-us-in-south-china-sea/
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  20. #80
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    Update on public knowledge of China's capabilities...

    China can launch nuclear counterattacks within minutes, ex-PLA officer says


    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/03/asia-pacific/china-nuclear-weapons/
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Earnest Rutherford

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