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  1. #41
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    Officials Push U.S.-China Relations Toward Point of No Return

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/w...-trump-xi.html
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davexl View Post
    Australia has made its situation clear, what will NZ decide to say & do ? Both its frigates are in Canada undergoing refit...

    South China Sea: Australian warships join US, Japanese in Chinese confrontation

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12350977

    President Trump will no more go to war with China over the Spratlys or Scarborough Shoal than President Eisenhower would go to war with China over Quemoy and Matsu.

    In this case, what the US position does demonstrate is that the current US administration does not understand that diplomacy involves the carrot and the stick. An understanding which seems to elude them in other geographies as well.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by GTM 3442 View Post
    President Trump will no more go to war with China over the Spratlys or Scarborough Shoal than President Eisenhower would go to war with China over Quemoy and Matsu.

    In this case, what the US position does demonstrate is that the current US administration does not understand that diplomacy involves the carrot and the stick. An understanding which seems to elude them in other geographies as well.
    I wish I understood better how well President Trump's decisions have been isolated from better decision making further down the hierarchy also. If not over the South China Sea, what about Taiwan, the Phillipines & Japan for which I understand there are formal agreements?

    Also could part of the calculus be that if war in the future is deemed almost inevitable, better for the US to provoke something earlier that is winnable, whereas China would want to defer the challenge until they are stronger? Or do both parties understand that the level of economic coupling is so great at this point that it's lose-lose in any case?
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davexl View Post
    <snip>

    Also could part of the calculus be that if war in the future is deemed almost inevitable, better for the US to provoke something earlier that is winnable, whereas China would want to defer the challenge until they are stronger? Or do both parties understand that the level of economic coupling is so great at this point that it's lose-lose in any case?
    Wars are fought by the military, but they are started and ended by politicians.

    What would a US military victory over China entail? What would the US war aims be? How would the US know if they had achieved those aims?

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  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by GTM 3442 View Post
    Phew,the other silk road?

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by GTM 3442 View Post
    The situation isn't quite a binary as the article implies with western Facebook messager good, eastern WeChat bad. While the west needs to establish its own technology solution stack, this needs to be constructed with some degree of checks and balances, as well as security baked in from the start. The west is not immune from over-reach.

    China has also embarked on the implementation of proprietary technologies (supplying some of these to NK), essentially locking the west out. This may be an attempt at security through obscurity, but if fraught with risk.

    Interesting article. Thanks for posting the link.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by GTM 3442 View Post
    The current record of the US is not so promising...

    It has failed to put together an Enterprise scale offering of its own for 5G communications, thus choosing to tear down Huawei, chosen as acceptable for use in the Radio Access Network components by the UK and NZ until vetoed recently by the UK and by GCSB in NZ under US pressure last year. So much for fair competition!

    Intel has failed to maintain its leadership in chip fabrication and outsources to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Samsung, itself a strategic risk, as far as Taiwan goes anyway. The US Govt has completely failed to get Intel onboard strategically https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/intel-...-of-reshoring/

    It appears to be losing its edge in Quantum Computing, which will render all current security key systems obsolete for Commerce & the Military within the next 5-10 years. https://www.computerworld.com/articl...your-help.html

    And it has no large scale technology in place to produce Rare Earth elements critical in Defence applications and the modern technological world. It is totally dependant on China, which has recently threatened Lockheed Martin over supply. Australia's Lynas is the only other skilled manufacturing and mineral resource outside of China and has only recently been recognised as strategic to US needs.

    eg "Lynas shares jump 10% on US defence contract" - 27 Jul 20

    By Colin Kruger Sydney Morning Herald

    Rare earths group Lynas Corp (ASX:LYC) said it has now signed a contract with the US Department of Defence for Phase 1 funding of its proposed rare earths processing operations in Texas.

    The funding will cover the design and planning of its proposed heavy rare earths processing plant and the company said it expects the work to be finished in the current financial year.

    “We are very pleased to signed a contract with the DoD for this Phase 1 work,” said Lynas chief executive Amanda Lacaze.

    Shares in the firm were up 10.1 per cent at a more than seven-month high $2.39 by 10.45am.

    Last week, Lynas declined to comment on reports that the US DoD had resumed preliminary funding for the company's proposed rare earths processing plant in Texas following an independent review.

    The review was triggered by US politicians, led by US Republican Senator and former presidential candidate Ted Cruz, who wanted to ensure that the entire supply chain for rare earths remains in US hands.

    Lynas first proposed to build a facility in the US in May last year to separate medium and heavy rare earths elements in Texas. The US Department of Defence later announced its proposal to fund rare earths processing in the US to strengthen the supply chain for the critical ores.

    Lynas extracts these rare earth ores -17 elements crucial to the manufacture of many hi-tech products such as mobile phones, electric cars and wind turbines - from a mine near Perth and currently sends the materials to a facility in Malaysia for processing.

    Ord Minnett analyst Dylan Kelly said the news last week that the DoD was restarting funding should come as no surprise given China threatening rare earth supply to US defence contractor Lockheed Martin.

    While the practical impact of sanctions is expected to be limited, Mr Kelly said it could “potentially spark a political and defence crisis” and highlight the strategic value of Lynas which is the only significant producer of rare earths outside of China.

    I mean SERIOUSLY...!!

    The US really needs to get its sh*t together strategically speaking, and learn how to work with the private sector, and vice versa. Covid has helped uncover this.

    Speaking of which the fightback for US's Technology & Manufacturing begins: includes Webinar, "Can US Manufacturing make a Comeback?"

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/webina...ke-a-comeback/
    Last edited by Davexl; 29-07-2020 at 03:25 PM.
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  9. #49
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    Originally Posted by Davexl

    Also could part of the calculus be that if war in the future is deemed almost inevitable, better for the US to provoke something earlier that is winnable, whereas China would want to defer the challenge until they are stronger? Or do both parties understand that the level of economic coupling is so great at this point that it's lose-lose in any case?


    Quote Originally Posted by GTM 3442 View Post
    Wars are fought by the military, but they are started and ended by politicians.

    What would a US military victory over China entail? What would the US war aims be? How would the US know if they had achieved those aims?
    Neutralising China's paramilitary forces from occupying littoral states EEZ's, Affirming the standing of UNCLOS international law, China's CCP pulling its head in.
    Last edited by Davexl; 28-07-2020 at 03:46 PM.
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davexl View Post
    Originally Posted by Davexl

    Also could part of the calculus be that if war in the future is deemed almost inevitable, better for the US to provoke something earlier that is winnable, whereas China would want to defer the challenge until they are stronger? Or do both parties understand that the level of economic coupling is so great at this point that it's lose-lose in any case?




    Neutralising China's paramilitary forces from occupying littoral states EEZ's, Affirming the standing of UNCLOS international law, China's CCP pulling its head in.
    Has the Trump Administration any credibility left, especially its foreign secretary: https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...hould-scare-us

    Also, Pompeo is on the record about lying, cheating and stealing while in the CIA;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RmEsPE7iq0

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