Geo Political Risk

[GTM 3442]

President Pompeo sprays to mark his territory


https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/us-d...c-and-reality/

[Davexl]

Can't stand the man (Pompeo), acts without evidence...

Trump and Pompeo's campaign of 'diplomatic vandalism'

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americ...atic-vandalism

[Davexl]

Campbell poised to ‘pivot’ US policy in Asia

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/campbe...olicy-in-asia/

Excerpt:
"Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, widely viewed as the region’s spokesman on this issue, said in late 2019: “If you ask them to choose and say, ‘I therefore must cut off my links with my biggest trading partner,’ I think you will put them in a very difficult position.”

Campbell noted in this month’s Foreign Affairs article that “although Indo-Pacific states seek US help to preserve their autonomy in the face of China’s rise, they realize it is neither practical nor profitable to exclude Beijing from Asia’s vibrant future. Nor do the region’s states want to be forced to ‘choose’ between the two superpowers.”

[Marilyn Munroe]

President Pompeo sprays to mark his territory

I almost feel sorry for Chairman Xi. A ruthless dictator who uses belligerence over Taiwan to cement his position and politicians in the world greatest democracy have an uncivil conversation about it ignoring him completely. Even worse his Manchurian Candidate is mocked as President Xiden.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[GTM 3442]

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/china-...course-at-sea/

[Davexl]

The truth we mostly knew comes out...2 highly intelligent men, but only Tillerson makes sense...

Tillerson slams Trump as Pompeo sings his praises

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/15/p...iew/index.html

Excerpt:
"Tillerson said he believes China will be the biggest problem for the incoming Biden administration.

At the 11th hour, Trump hands Biden a whole new set of foreign policy headaches

"I have a fear that we will come to military conflict with China within the decade and it will be when they make their move on Taiwan.
They've been putting all of their pieces in place for a long time now to do that, and that is [Chinese President Xi Jinping's] legacy, to reunite China," he said."

[Davexl]

Essay.

Is a US-China war a real possibility? by Francesco Sisci

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/is-a-us-china-war-a-real-possibility/

Excerpt:
"This success comes after 40 years of constant results. In four decades, China went from being one of the poorest countries in the world to one of the richest; from one of the most backwards technologically, to one of the most advanced.

This certainly didn’t happen just because Beijing did it all on its own. This was also largely due to massive help of the US, which 40 years ago granted China an unprecedented privilege: to export to the US with very low tariffs and the possibility of Western technological transfer to China.

Furthermore, until recently, the US gave China a free pass on media scrutiny, basically expecting China to evolve in the “right direction.”


"In fact, some in China and the US may think that a military clash between the two is better now than later.

From the Chinese side, people may think that clashing with the US now, before it has effectively built a military alliance, could be better because it would scare some neighbors into turning toward China in an alliance or at least into neutrality. In America, some people may think a clash is better now before China grows too big and too technologically advanced."

In both countries, people may also think differently and favor the postponement of a military clash. In China, some may want to grow even stronger economically. In the US, some may want time to build a global alliance."

[GTM 3442]

Just out of idle curiosity, just on the off chance, what would a Chinese military victory over the USA look like? What actual, practical, constraints and limits could China place on the USA?

And vice versa. . . .

[Davexl]

First Turkey and now India?

Exclusive: India's friction with U.S. rises over planned purchase of Russian S-400 defence systems

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKBN29K2DO

[Davexl]

Just out of idle curiosity, just on the off chance, what would a Chinese military victory over the USA look like? What actual, practical, constraints and limits could China place on the USA?

And vice versa. . . .

A brief stab - but for starters...

If China were to successfully invade Taiwan , the US would suddenly lose the bulk of its China manufacturing production, especially its chip manufacturing in Taiwan. It would lose 90% of rare earths (necessary for defence), as Australia's Rare Earth production methods are not operating in the US yet and in a wider war Australia's ore production together with Malaysia's manufacturing would be lost. The US would end up completely de-fanged and would survive as a low tech, subsistence economy and China would switch its previously exported products to domestic demand uses, as they are planning to do via their "re-circulation" economics strategy being implemented right now.

If the US (& Japan) retained Taiwan and controlled all sea-lanes, China which is not self-sufficient in food could be starved into submission as the US is one of China's 'bread-baskets' for the moment. Further resources strangulation would be used of oil, via the Indian ocean and raw ores from Australia unless Australia was taken out in a wider conflagration.

For now China isn't strong enough to take out Australia, but it could take out Taiwan, whose military and backup-forces are supposedly not well trained or resourced right now as has been discussed elsewhere. The calculus might be that China can do the job swiftly before the US could either find the will, (or possibly not) or ramp up logistics to take them on more fully. It's conceivable that Taiwan might not be defended successfully because of its proximity to China or failure of US logistics response in a timely manner. It might all be over quite quickly if the war is swift enough to remain as a regional war where the US decides that Taiwan could go the way of Hong Kong to save US and Japanese lives.

The calculus in the US could be that there is little to lose by more aggressively taking on China in the South China Sea as if a war were triggered, it would be better while China is less technologically advanced or developed logistically to fight a war against a major adversary. That's why right-wing ideologues like Pompeo were so dangerous as they might decide that such a strategy is "winnable" at this point in time vs later.

As we all hopefully know by now we all would hope to avoid war and peacefully co-exist somehow, but there is loss of trust on both sides and stress-points have never been higher than they are right now and with the US is complete disarray, now could be a good time for China's CCP to strike.

Both sides are 'prudently' preparing for war to defend the peace - China biding its time for now, except possibly for Taiwan, and the US getting more aggressive in the South China Sea and getting allies and friends on-board. At least Pompeo is gone (almost) but President Xi isn't and matters are worsening for now on both sides.