Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

There’s More Than Wine in Australia-China Trade Tension

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...-trade-tension

Exerpt:
"It is far from clear that the incoming Biden administration will feel differently about the threats that a successfully aspiring
and expanding China poses for U.S. interests. As such, the cost of running the dual-option model will continue to rise for countries that pursue it,
including Canada and Singapore." (and New Zealand) - italics are mine.

[Davexl]

Treasury Wine 'extremely disappointed' by China move, pivoting to other markets

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...30-p56j1c.html

[greater fool]

There’s More Than Wine in Australia-China Trade Tension

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...-trade-tension

Exerpt:
"It is far from clear that the incoming Biden administration will feel differently about the threats that a successfully aspiring
and expanding China poses for U.S. interests. As such, the cost of running the dual-option model will continue to rise for countries that pursue it,
including Canada and Singapore." (and New Zealand) - italics are mine.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...12-p56dx3.html


"Between China and Australia, which country is breaching the principles of market economy and the bilateral free-trade agreement? And which country is reneging on its commitments,
undermining cooperation and taking discriminatory measures? The facts are all too clear."

Australia is one of the most prolific users of anti-dumping measures in the world. Australia's own Productivity Commission says so. In 2016, it said "there are no convincing justifications
for these measures, and they reduce the wellbeing of the Australian community". It repeated the same argument again in 2019 to press home the point on why anti-dumping measures
should be avoided.

Dumping involves foreign companies selling goods in Australia below the price in their home market, crowding out and reducing the competitiveness of the local product.
The Productivity Commission argues anti-dumping measures stymie innovation and economic growth because they protect inefficient products that can be bought at a lower price from elsewhere.
The products that are dumped are then subject to countervailing duties, or tariffs, to make the local product more competitive.

In the case of China, Australia has taken particular issue with Chinese paper, aluminum and steel being dumped into the local market and undermining the competitiveness of Australian players.
These three are worth paying particular attention to because of their importance to the local economy.”


https://www.canberratimes.com.au/sto...rade/?cs=14233
"Now a non-resident fellow with the United States Studies Centre, Uren's been exploring our economic and strategic relationship with China intensely for decades. To those like Morrison
who urge our manufactures to swerve, duck and go elsewhere to sell their goods Uren makes one single, critical point, with massive clarity. The dependence is all one-way.

There is, he insists, absolutely "no realistic alternative market to China for a third of [our] exports and no viable source but China for almost a fifth of imports". As a market, however,
we are almost completely irrelevant to Beijing and represent less than 2 per cent of worldwide sales. This asymmetry is complete in virtually everything other than a handful of commodities,
of which iron ore and LNG exports are dominant - and this is why Morrison's gut-led approach to the relationship with our most important trading partner isn't acceptable.

He plays our most vital international relationship as if he's an equal player on the sports field, needling and taunting an opponent for tactical advantage, seeking to provoke them into
a foul move and then thinking everything can just be dismissed to start again next match. Diplomacy isn't like that. It's not possible to pretend there's no lingering ill will from picking needless fights.

Take Morrison's ill-judged call for an investigation into the origin of COVID-19."

[Davexl]

Just like Trump's tariffs, China's trade attack will backfire

https://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...30-p56j41.html

Excerpt:
"Like Trump’s tariffs and assaults on the multi-lateral organisations that America had played a pivotal
role in creating, which alarmed America’s traditional allies, China’s attempt to intimidate Australia is
likely to be counter-productive and force other western nations to consider what China’s new belligerence might mean for them."

[Davexl]

The consequences for China of its aggressiveness:

A plea for help as China loses jobs to Vietnam

https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/a-plea...bs-to-vietnam/

Excerpts:

"While both Tianjin and Huizhou have diversified their manufacturing sectors away from foreign-invested
firms such as Samsung, the exodus of Samsung and the like and the ripple effect on local supply chains
have put a dent in the two cities’ economic outputand exports as the coronavirus slashes external demand.
The cities’ statistics say Tianjin’s GDP contracted by 3.9% in the first half of the year, and total exports were down 3.3%.

The impact is more intimately felt in Huizhou, whose economy is way smaller. Its exports plummeted
by 28% in the first six months, dragging GDP growth to a negative 4.3%."

"These developments have fueled rumors about whether Apple will soon start making iPhones outside China.
Apple news website Apple Insider claimed in August that the US tech behemoth had assessed the manufacturing
capabilities of Luxshare’s Vietnam base, after the latter injected US$454 million into its three subsidiaries in the country."

"A memo from Zhejiang’s provincial department of commerce to the Chinese Commerce Ministry viewed by
Asia Times noted that exports were still vital in keeping the local economy ticking and that, for the sake of
employment and fiscal income, Beijing must formulate new measures and dole out subsidies
amid “a hollowing out of foreign direct investment and export-oriented manufacturing.”

[Davexl]

So will the real China please standup? The sweetness & light one or the evil CCP

China fires back at Morrison, doubles down on war crimes accusation

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/tw...30-p56j80.html

[Davexl]

Time for China's moderates to step up and replace Xi

(Refer "The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hard-line faction" (Post #334)

Excerpts:
17) I personally am happy for Xi to remain president of China for his hard-line approach will continue to alienate China from the rest of the world. This will lead to more self-reliance policies and measures within the economies of the west and regions outside China.

18) On the other hand, if the west wants to have a more moderate leadership within CCP/PLA/China and Helen a less aggressive CCP/PLA, there is one simple way to approach this.

19) Stop giving President Xi access to international forums. BRIC counties, if possible, should stop conveying. India and Brazil should be persuaded for such. ASEAN nations should stop their invitations of China and hence Xi to its meetings. ASEAN nations could be persuaded by US. Australia and EU for doing this. APAC also should cease to operate to stop Xi from getting platform in conveying his messages.

20) All western democracies as well as Korea, Japan and SE Asia nations should not invite Xi or refuse Xi visiting their countries, full stop.

21) Further, sending back all Chinese diplomats that have air unwarranted hostile remarks against western countries back to China and blacklist them from being accepted for other posts (diplomatic, trade or commercial enterprises) in the west.

22) By isolating/excluding Xi from international forums, Xi could not use international stages to shore up his own position in the struggles within CCP.

23) BTW, by not taking phone calls from Aussie ministers is similar to my suggestions of excluding Xi from international forums, but against Australia instead.

24) Also ban all Chinese social sites in the west across the board. Ban Global Times (CCP's mouth piece in the west) from operating within the west altogether.

25) CCTV's international arms have YouTube channels. As long as China has banned YouTube, its own government and state owned enterprises should not be allowed to have channels on YouTube either. (I would miss some of the good programmes, but some are nothing but with CCP/PLA propaganda, lol)

26) To fight Xi, we could do nothing in the west and let the 2 main moderate factions do their own works to bring down Xi and his hard-line faction. Or we can also be hard-line against Xi himself too.


"Twitter post garbage the clearest sign yet of desperation in Beijing"

https://www.smh.com.au/national/twit...29-p56iye.html

[Davexl]

How Australia can respond to China's aggression

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...01-p56jgv.html

Excerpt:
"China’s use of trade sanctions in response to non-trade issues is generating international disquiet
because it underscores its new-found willingness to exercise, nakedly and crudely, its economic and geopolitical muscle."

[Davexl]

Jacinda Ardern comes to Australia's aid in Twitter dispute with China

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/ja...01-p56jgj.html

Excerpt:
France's Foreign Ministry has also reacted to the dispute.

"We do not consider the tweet in question to be worthy of the methods one would expect from the diplomacy
of a country like China," a spokesperson said. "The published image is particularly shocking and the commentary
is biased and insulting to all countries whose armed forces have been engaged in Afghanistan for nearly two decades."

[Ahgong]

Opinion of Michael Pembroke:

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion...-against-china