Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

China-U.S. ties plunge further over Hong Kong sanctions

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/08/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/us-sanctions-hong-kong-carrie-lam/

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the security law violated promises made by China ahead of Hong Kong’s 1997
handover that the city could keep key freedoms and autonomy for 50 years.


“Today’s actions send a clear message that the Hong Kong authorities’ actions are unacceptable,” Pompeo said in a statement.

[Davexl]

(Aust) PM warns of threats facing our region, revives criticism of negative globalism

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...04-p55ij9.html

Excerpts:

His speech comes after former prime minister Kevin Rudd on Tuesday warned growing tensions between the United States and China could lead to "not just a new Cold War, but a hot one as well".

In a piece for Foreign Affairs magazine, Mr Rudd said the "once unthinkable outcome – actual armed conflict between the United States and China – now appears possible for the first time since the end of the Korean War".

If America and China Go to War, It Won’t Be an Accident

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-07/war-between-china-and-america-won-t-happen-by-accident

I found this somewhat reassuring until I considered the following:

What if the calculus by a Trump like US regime is that ...if war is inevitable, then it is better to fight it earlier rather than later while it's still winnable...
Whereas China's calculation, if IT see's war as inevitable is ...it's better to delay a war as long as possible, until we are much stronger militarily...

That would be my concern, as South East Asia and Australasia would be collateral damage...and NZ is totally & utterly unprepared to defend its area of interest...

[Leftfield]

China's floods and related food supply issues highlight China's reliance on other countries.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/08/e...hnk/index.html

[Davexl]

U.S. visit to Taiwan begins, adding to escalating China tensions

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...-taiwan-china/

excerpt:
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry hit back at China’s criticism of the visit on Thursday, calling Beijing a “global troublemaker.”


“What the Chinese government can do is stop making irresponsible remarks on the international stage and
stop interfering with Taiwan’s foreign exchanges,” ministry spokeswoman Joanne Ou said at a briefing Thursday.

“What the Chinese government can do is ‘return politics to the people, listen to the voices of the people, and
understand the needs of the people’ because the 1.4 billion people of China and Hong Kong deserve freedom.”

[macduffy]

That would be my concern, as South East Asia and Australasia would be collateral damage...and NZ is totally & utterly unprepared to defend its area of interest...

Suggestions?

[Davexl]

Suggestions?

Rebuild our Airforce strike wing, perhaps with the Gripen Fighter. After discussion in the Facebook group 'Friends of the RAN / RNZAF A-4 Skyhawk' group. there seems to be a consensus forming that the Swedish Gripen aircraft would be a good replacement fit for NZ if it rearmed. Better for warfighting in the S/W Pacific domain, using short runways and fast turnaround to rearm and re engine if necessary and fully net-workable.

Ron Mark, our Defence minister is doing his best to at least upgrade our obsolete equipment, but having no AirStrike wing and only 2 frigates in our "Navy" doesn't cut it in my view anyway, or in the view of some people within NZ's own Defence Community. Ron briefly commented to me that as NZ First, the junior MMP coalition partner, has only 7% of the vote, it doesn't have the leverage to demand a serious level of Defence expenditure within the caucus.

Traditionally in my memory, NZ maintained 4 frigates as well as the Air Strike Wing. It was a total travesty for Helen Clark, our Prime Minister of the time to dispand our Skyhawks and cancel the F16 deal with the US. Almost treasonous in my personal view. There are repercussions even to this day.

This is what should be exercising New Zealanders' minds right now IMO:

There could be an existential threat to NZ within the next 5 - 10 years - I hope that's wrong...

New-Zealands Dangerous Strategic Apathy in an Uncertain Age

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...uncertain-age/

If you love your country, please read this article - these issues cannot be ignored any longer...

There is still time for New Zealand's Defence establishment to respond - they are fully aware of this situation but are doing next to nothing to upgrade our actual combat capability.

Australia has upped their 10-year Defence expenditure by 40% - When is New Zealand going to respond ? - It takes political pressure from ALL of us...

[Davexl]

China leader Xi Jinping slammed for his 'wolf warrior' tactics

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12355007

Excerpt:

"Xi has always had his critics among China's liberal scholars who blame him for provoking the US with his assertive diplomatic and military policies," he writes.
They prefer the "hide your strength, bide your time" policy enacted by Chairman Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s.

"But by citing the doctrine of a revered political leader like Deng, the liberals gave themselves political cover to criticise Xi, without mentioning him by name."

[greater fool]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/polit...ian-businesses

[Davexl]

With thanks to Iceman! Updates the effects on US supply-chain constraints on Taiwan fab manufacturers for Huawei

Huawei says it’s running out of chips for its smartphones because of US sanctions

https://www.theverge.com/2020/8/9/21...acy-smartphone

[Davexl]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/polit...ian-businesses

Excellent article - I wonder sadly, how much longer the SCMP can maintain credible independence from the CCP.

Also, I very much doubt that right wing social media in the US has any effect whatsoever on the Aust psyche, together with the claims of the CCP that Hong Kong was subject to "foreign manipulation" stirring up the Democracy protests. Patently ridiculous!