Geo Political Risk

[Panda-NZ-]

If Biden more firmly takes on Russia that could have long term benefits.

If Putin and his cronies are excised from the land and the country moves closer to the EU it would change the whole game internationally.

[Davexl]

Very interesting possibility Panda-NZ. I'm sure the CIA is working on it...now anyway...


Now all we need is for someone to fire back...

China authorises coast guard to fire on foreign vessels if needed

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/ch...22-p56was.html

[Davexl]

Australia & China. New boys on the block. If at first you don't succeed...

Press reset: can the Morrison government rebuild bridges with China – or is it too late?

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...is-it-too-late

Excerpt:
Prof Jane Golley, an economist from the Australian National University and director of its Australian Centre on China in the World, says she can’t see any significant change looming for the state of the relationship.

“There’s been a lot of discussion about how we might reset the relationship in the last few years, but it’s gone beyond that. The question now is how much further things could deteriorate, or whether there is scope around the edges to improve the relationship somewhat.”

Golley says China’s dependence iron ore imports provides some constraint to its trade actions, “but in aggregate terms and for virtually all sectors, the simple fact is they matter far more to us in economic terms than we matter to them”.

[Davexl]

This could be very big for Russia (Sunday NZ Time)

Alexei Navalny: Russian authorities brace for Saturday protests

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...urday-protests

Excerpt:
Kira Yarmysh, Navalny’s press secretary, said police threatened to break down her door while detaining her before the protests.
She continued to tweet from custody, saying that attending the protests was “everyone’s duty, if we want prosperity, freedom and the well-being of our country.
And so that Alexei and all those illegally behind bars are set free.”

“January 23rd should become legendary,” she wrote from a jail cell before signing off for the night.

[Davexl]

Change in tactics by China...

Taiwan reports large incursion by Chinese air force

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKBN29S0BK

[Davexl]

Biden’s ‘Big Four’ to refine Trump’s China policy by Richard Javad Heydarian

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/bidens...-china-policy/

Excerpt:
“I disagree very much with the way that he [Trump] went about it in a number of areas, but the basic principle was the right one, and I think that’s actually helpful to our foreign policy,” he added, emphasizing that the previous administration rightly broke with self-defeating strategic taboos following decades of failed engagement policy towards Beijing.

[Davexl]

Western Values vs Chinese CCP demands - HSBC, where the rubber hits the road...

HSBC chief can’t stay silent as China’s crimes are exposed

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...25-p56wll.html

Excerpt:
"Perhaps Quinn will offer MPs a different and more convincing characterisation this week. He would do well to bear in mind these words from Tom Tugendhat, the Conservative committee chairman: “Companies listed in London should expect to be scrutinised according to the values we hold, not those of a foreign dictatorship.“

and

"Britain’s self-serving hopes that forging a partnership with Beijing would help freedom take root have evaporated. The CCP is instead building the world’s first hi-tech prison state. As geopolitics shift to account for this reality, the financial system must be reshaped. HSBC should admit it and get ready for a break-up."

[Waltzing]

2 days of flight incursions by the china air force and US strike force entry 36 hours ago into the south china sea.

[Davexl]

And on the same subject from Bloomberg - in case you missed it...

Savers Spooked

"China's growing power is scaring ordinary savers out of Hong Kong, with Bank of America estimating outflows could reach $36 billion this year as residents assess their options. A proliferation of discussions have sprung up on social networks offering advice on creating offshore accounts, moving money into other assets, or opening accounts at U.S. banks, which are perceived to be less pliable to the demands of Chinese authorities, following the introduction of the sweeping national security law imposed on the city last year. For some, the last straw came when banks including British lender HSBC froze the accounts of former lawmaker Ted Hui and family members after he went into exile in the U.K. with his family. Other signs that the pace of cash leaving the city is picking up include a rise in withdrawals from the city's pension fund and soaring interest in U.K. property by Hongkongers"

[Davexl]

2 days of flight incursions by the china air force and US strike force entry 36 hours ago into the south china sea.

China-Taiwan tensions rise days into Biden presidency

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/chin...residency.html

U.S. sends carrier into South China Sea as Chinese bombers fly near Taiwan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/24/asia-pacific/us-south-china-sea-taiwan/

Excerpt:
"Earlier, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said that eight Chinese H-6K bombers, four J-16 fighter jets and a Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft had entered the ADIZ. China, which claims Taiwan as an inherent part of its territory, has conducted almost daily flights near the island in recent months, usually involving surveillance aircraft. But the large size of Saturday’s contingent — and presence of the bombers — was unusual."


also, raising the stakes further...

New U.S. defense chief confirms Senkakus fall under security treaty

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/24/national/politics-diplomacy/us-japan-defense-senkakus/

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