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  1. #1
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    Default Geo Political Risk

    There is a significant risk to the economy, apart from COVID which could occur in October or November. China may take a calculated risk and finally resolve its long standing claim on Taiwan and annex it . Should this occur, they may believe that, with the current inept leadership of Donald Trump that no meaningful response from the USA would be forthcoming. If this occurs trade with China, would come to a standstill. New Zealand exports would be severely impacted, the NZ dollar would plummet. The risk of this happening is, I believe, much higher than we may think

  2. #2
    Senior Member Marilyn Munroe's Avatar
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    All that needs to be done is send President Xi a biography of General Galtieri a former fellow despot who used foreign quarrels to busy giddy minds.

    He needs to read the Wikipedia page on the "Highway of Death" battle of the Gulf War to understand what happens to dictators who gravitate from being beastly to his fellow citizens to being beastly to other countries and makes the Americans cross.

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    It may happen, I wont rule it out completely (that China annexes Taiwan soon) but I personally don't think its at that stage just yet. China has a lot of geopolitical tensions these days and I think they will stagger their way through them successively.
    It is probable that tensions will rise in the lead up to the US elections, but I would think that China will wait to see if Trump is re-elected , or who else they have to deal with before taking any seriously confrontational military action.

    But I also think that if they push him Trump might retaliate whereas your view was that he wouldn't do so, so we clearly have different ways of seeing things.
    Last edited by peat; 07-07-2020 at 12:04 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

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    I also believe that an even bigger risk may come from a miscalculation to do with China's actions on the South China Sea. There is talk that China may shortly declare an Air Defence Identification Zone, a further step to them after setting up 2 Administrative Zones recently, cementing their illegal claim under previous UNCLOS determinations, to the South China Sea via their nine-dash border line. These actions have frightened Australia this month into upping their 10 year defence budgets by 40% ! - and they have announced they are buying long range Air, Sea and Ground launched missiles off the US Navy initially to extend their offensive capability. NZ could be drawn into a war against China at almost any time with the tensions between China and the US rapidly escalating. Of course NZ is basically defenceless with no Air Strike Wing and only 2 frigates, poorly armed and basically cannon fodder in a naval contest. Of course we would be in a US or Australian led squadron but that is small comfort.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12344494

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/us-china-inch-closer-towards-a-conflict-at-sea/

    https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/au...nce%20paradigm
    Last edited by Davexl; 07-07-2020 at 06:22 PM.
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  5. #5
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    Relax- NZ will not be wanted in any squadron - our Navy would be a liability. Previously we had just been asked to do patrolling in unrelated areas to allow US/UK etc to send better equipped ships to action
    Quote Originally Posted by Davexl View Post
    I also believe that an even bigger risk may come from a miscalculation to do with China's actions on the South China Sea. There is talk that China may shortly declare an Air Defence Identification Zone, a further step to them after setting up 2 Administrative Zones recently, cementing their illegal claim under previous UNCLOS determinations, to the South China Sea via their nine-dash border line. These actions have frightened Australia this month into upping their 10 year defence budgets by 40% ! - and they have announced they are buying long range Air, Sea and Ground launched missiles off the US Navy initially to extend their offensive capability. NZ could be drawn into a war against China at almost any time with the tensions between China and the US rapidly escalating. Of course NZ is basically defenceless with no Air Strike Wing and only 2 frigates, poorly armed and basically cannon fodder in a naval contest. Of course we would be in a US or Australian led squadron but that is small comfort.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12344494

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    Extremely unlikely that China would try to force the Taiwan issue by armed force anytime soon. The communist party values internal peace and harmony above all else and for good reason. A humiliating loss would as Marilyn alludes to bring the downfall of the regime. As could a major economic recession. China like much of the world has got used to endless growth.

    The time for appeasement of the CCP is however over. The CCP under Xi is a very different beast to the party under previous leaders, authoritarian, rule-breaking, aggressive and anti-foreigner. The 10 year transition of power since removed by now dictator Xi used to work relatively well in diffusing and regularly transferring power. Now all look to Xi with all the problems that entails, COVID-19 just one devastating example.

    Another bad mistake Xi has made is breaking the Hong Kong agreement and imposing their internal security apparatus upon it. No one will trust them now and the HKers will not go quietly into the night. Unlike Tibetans that were victims of an earlier CCP takeover, HKers are highly educated and integrated into the global community and China itself.

    Previous CCP leaders would simply have waited the remaining 26 years for the HK agreement to lapse. Strategic patience used to be a great Chinese asset. Xi's impatience sadly will bring more mistakes. A much wiser Chinese leader said it best:

    China is not a superpower, nor will she ever seek to be one... If one day China should change her color and turn into a superpower, if she too should play the tyrant in the world, and everywhere subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation, the people of the world should identify her as social-imperialist, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it.

    - Deng Xiaoping

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    Deng Xiaoping also introduced the limited term to ensure the focus was on the party and country rather than the leader. Or words to that effect. And look what's Xi has done.
    Its unlikely they have invested all that money in South China Sea to not reap a reward. That said they are (probably) too smart to provoke war. They may just pick their time to deepen their interests there....perhaps now while US and UK are weak and Aus still relies on China to buy its rather limited range of exports. Taiwan is indeed an interesting beast though, they have serious weaponry (unlike HK).

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    Quote Originally Posted by dibble View Post
    Deng Xiaoping also introduced the limited term to ensure the focus was on the party and country rather than the leader. Or words to that effect. And look what's Xi has done.
    Its unlikely they have invested all that money in South China Sea to not reap a reward. That said they are (probably) too smart to provoke war. They may just pick their time to deepen their interests there....perhaps now while US and UK are weak and Aus still relies on China to buy its rather limited range of exports. Taiwan is indeed an interesting beast though, they have serious weaponry (unlike HK).
    While playing these games, China is also heavily involved in building enduring relationships with other nation-states via trade and the supply of aid. They are also investing heavily in military campaigns in the cyber realm, however they may be spreading themselves too thin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zaphod View Post
    While playing these games, China is also heavily involved in building enduring relationships with other nation-states via trade and the supply of aid.
    True. They are also quietly "buying" votes on various international forums/fora (UN etc), usually linked to trade and aid, and doing a pretty good job of getting their way without too much bother.

    Agree with Macduffy though, not really the right place for the thread. Is it possible to move a thread??

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    Quote Originally Posted by dibble View Post
    True. They are also quietly "buying" votes on various international forums/fora (UN etc), usually linked to trade and aid, and doing a pretty good job of getting their way without too much bother.

    Agree with Macduffy though, not really the right place for the thread. Is it possible to move a thread??
    It may not be the right forum, however a sudden conflict involving China and Taiwan would definitely impact the NZX do you not think??

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