Geo Political Risk

[Bobdn]

Do people take investment action based on perceived geo political risk?

Are people holding cash waiting for the All Clear?

I don't, as tempting as it is on occasion.

Would be interesting to hear how people concerned with "current affairs" (as we used to call it in the old days) are adjusting their portfolios accordingly. I assume this means adjusting the cash portion but there might be other actions.

I'd never do this I should stress. It would just lose me money. But maybe such action has made some one money consistently.

[Davexl]

Do people take investment action based on perceived geo political risk?

Are people holding cash waiting for the All Clear?

I don't, as tempting as it is on occasion.

Well if you read some of David Skillings reports on New Zealand companies needing to factor in Geopolitical Risks and diversifying their sales, that is already starting to happen, Rodney Jones has given Kiwis a heads up on how dangerous the situation is in North East Asia with China for NZ companies and investors, Aussi is starting to build long-range missiles from next year, right now freight rates are going up again affecting freight sensitive stocks.

Some people do factor in these things, some people blithely continue playing the odds, increasingly tilting against them - up to you...

[Bobdn]

Picking individual shares sounds really hard. I have no idea how I'd incorporate activity in North East Asia, missle tests, freight rates etc

That approach is not for me. I'm going to continue with my low cost indexes and ETFs, spread across the world, and hold until the bitter end.

[Davexl]

Your approach sounds very relaxing & stress free (& especially diversified).

I on the other hand have been investing in Counter drone technologies in Aust (DRO EOS) highly profitable over the last year or so, Naval shipbuilding expansion (Austal), plus the likes of Xero and IFT (US centric) and of course (NZ centric) perennials like Utilities, subject to NZ demand only.
Forgoing the likes of Fonterra & A2 Milk (too China dependant for me anyway. Of course there are others and the odd ETF, plus future consideration of an options strategy for downside portfolio protection against a black-swan event, like Nato / Russia war, wider Middle-East conflict or China-USA war over Taiwan or South China Sea. But hey, that's just me...

[Davexl]

From Bloomberg:

Marcos Says a Death May Trigger US Pact as China Tensions Rise

• Philippines says no plan to give US access to more bases
• Marcos eyes exploring oil and gas in non-conflict areas

"The Philippines will invoke its defense treaty with the US if a Filipino soldier dies from a foreign attack, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said, in remarks that come amid growing tensions with China.

“I think Secretary Austin explained it very well, if any Filipino serviceman is killed by an attack from any foreign power, then that is time to invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty,” Marcos told foreign correspondents in Manila on Monday, referring to his conversation with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin last week at the Pentagon."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...=BBD041524_MKT

Let's hope the resupply missions to Ayungin shoal (in the Spratlys) go well then, and the severe injuries from China's water cannons / ramming maneuvers don't kill any serviceman in the SCS.

One would like to think that the President would be bluffing (the death of one person say) though he IS the President, and he discussed this with the US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, so food for thought...

(There were 14 resupply missions to the shoal concerned, so once a month give or take)