Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

North Korea unveils new submarine-launched missile at parade

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...les-japan-kim/

Excerpt:
"But military experts say North Korea’s decrepit submarine force would easily be detected and destroyed, while sanctions make developing any survivable sub a virtually unattainable goal. One possible objective behind the rush to build the new missiles, however, could be to lay the groundwork for another escalation: the revelation of a solid-fueled ICBM.


“I’m struggling to understand the logic of this rapid SLBM development and evolution with no real survivable submarine and the only thing that makes sense to me is that these developments are setting the stage for a solid fuel ICBM,” Vipin Narang, a North Korea expert and professor of international relations at MIT, wrote on Twitter. “To me that has to be the end game here.”

[Davexl]

Next move up to Biden...

China delivers threat over Five Eyes Hong Kong joint statement (except for NZ)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/chi...JEIPNYU6VN22U/

Excerpt:
"The visit (to Taiwan) is part of outgoing Secretary of State Pompeo's declaration that "all contact guidelines regarding relations with Taiwan ... to be null and void".

Taiwan has welcomed this final act of the troubled Trump presidency, but the Global Times has declared: "The dire consequences will be beyond anyone's predictions."
"If Washington arbitrarily removes these restrictions it had previously complied with, China-US relations will be totally redefined, and the two countries will move into hostility.

The international basis and foundation for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan question will collapse."

[GTM 3442]

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIP...ary-doctrines/

[Davexl]

First Turkey and now India?

Exclusive: India's friction with U.S. rises over planned purchase of Russian S-400 defence systems

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKBN29K2DO

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIP...ary-doctrines/

Found this bit particularly interesting re the S400...excellent paper by the way, fills in the strategic background nicely...

"Related to counterforce is the missile defense piece of damage limitation strategies: the ability to intercept residuals that a counterforce strike misses. Here, India has tried to develop native layered missile defenses, including the Prithvi Air Defense system and Advanced Air Defense system. However, Pakistan’s emphasis on cruise missiles and India’s recognition of the limitations of its native defenses led New Delhi to pursue terminal and area defense systems from abroad. Thwarted by technology transfer issues with the Israeli Arrow system (based on the US Patriot system) and with no alternatives, India sought Russia’s capable S-400 system, which possesses a performance envelope that is quite good for India. It is capable of intercepting short- and medium-range ballistic missile targets—exactly the ranges of Pakistani strategic nuclear weapons—and has a limited capability to intercept cruise missiles, in addition to its air defense capabilities. The S-400 was such a high priority for India that it was willing to risk US-levied CAATSA sanctions to continue with the purchase of four batteries from Russia. The S-400 adds a critical missile defense capability that makes a preemptive counterforce option more credible, since it provides a limited ability to intercept residuals, reducing the pressure on intelligence to find and destroy all of Pakistan’s strategic nuclear forces. This is a case where Russia may directly influence Indian thinking."

[Davexl]

What we've all been thinking these last 4 long years...(Not just the Europeans)

Trump has trashed America's most important alliance. The rift with Europe could take decades to repair

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/16/europe/trump-has-trashed-the-transatlantic-alliance-intl/index.html

Excerpt:
"A view many European officials share is that no matter how friendly Biden is, Trump happened once -- and could happen again. The President lost the election, but clearly there is still a lot of support for his politics. In 2024, Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Mike Pompeo, or any other of his allies could conceivably pick up the torch and win an election."

and

"The repudiation of shared ideas and cultural ties Cluver describes are one prong of the fork that has punctured the alliance. According to Barker, officials in European capitals were agog at the types of people Trump employed to work as envoys overseas.

"This idea, that Europe has lost its trust in America, comes up time and again when speaking to European diplomats and EU officials. Cluver believes the combination of unpredictability from the White House and "US bureaucracy being dismantled from the inside to make it less effective worldwide" under Trump means we have crossed the Rubicon."

"American influence in European defense, security, and other global priorities has diminished. This has led to lots of countries having to think more seriously about their future with a less assertive US," she added."

[GTM 3442]

Nice China/US/China scenario.

"The Diplomat" ran a series on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, this is the first part.

https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/anat...he-air-domain/

[Marilyn Munroe]

I'm a ambitious ruthless dictator with power of life and death over people. I'm going to invade Taiwan(Poland). I have the mighty Peoples Liberation Army(Wehrmacht) at my command and the democracies are an appeasing disunited mess. What could possibly go wrong?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Davexl]

Nice China/US/China scenario.

"The Diplomat" ran a series on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, this is the first part.

https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/anat...he-air-domain/

Very much looking foward to the following installments!

[Davexl]

The geo-strategic importance of TSMC and Taiwan more generally to our standard of living...

A brewing U.S.-China tech cold war rattles the semiconductor industry

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/18/a-br...-industry.html

[Davexl]

The final throws of Trump's attempt at Huawei's weakening...equivalent to a partial blockade of Chinese chipset manufacturing
And we know what typically happens with a blockade of any critical commodity - getting serious...

Trump administration slams China's Huawei, halts shipments from Intel and others, sources say

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/18/trum...urces-say.html