Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

China says it has no intention of ‘becoming another United States’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/chin...ed-states.html

"Several American officials have warned that China wants to replace the U.S. as the world’s dominant power. Such sentiment in the U.S. culminated in a series of recent speeches by top officials — including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security advisor Robert O’Brien — which called out China for its attempt in upending the global order."

Are these people credible in their demonising of China - Perhaps, based on China's actions, but also on US actions eg Huawei
- Both are at Fault...

"Washington has tried to pressure its allies to ban Huawei from their countries’ 5G networks.Wang called such moves by the U.S. a “textbook example of bullying” and a violation of “international rules of fair trade.” In contrast, he stressed that China is a “firm defender” of the international system"

Sounds about right to me anyway...

[Davexl]

Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe warned his U.S. counterpart (Mark Esper) in a (90 minute) phone call Thursday to avoid firing up bilateral tensions

"China warns U.S. against 'dangerous moves' on Taiwan"


https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/07/asia-pacific/china-warns-u-s-taiwan/

[Davexl]

Well OK then, Trump has been convinced this is a matter of National Security or

How to alienate the Chinese diaspora in the US and stop students talking to their families back home...

"Trump Targets WeChat and TikTok, in Sharp Escalation With China"

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/technology/trump-wechat-tiktok-china.html

[Davexl]

China risks paying 'high cost' for South China Sea intimidation, Japan defense chief says

"Anyone who is trying to change the status quo by force needs to be forced to pay a high cost," Kono said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/07/a...hnk/index.html

[GTM 3442]

Leaving the point-scoring politicians to fend for themselves for a while. . . let's look at the geo-politics in the national interest space.

China needs to import energy, and China needs to export manufactured goods.

Now while China imports hydrocarbons from a wide variety of sources there is a large hydrocarbon exporter next door – Russia. To what extent can China replace its existing hydrocarbon suppliers with Russian hydrocarbons? It would be useful, because hydrocarbons coming through pipelines and railways from the northwest are less vulnerable than hydrocarbons coming from the southeast by sea.

And with the added extra bonus of a set of free steak knives - and wait there’s more - effective control of the South China Sea gives China effective control over the energy imports of three “competitor” economies – Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.

As for exports, well if Chinese manufactured exports to the east are constrained (as China and the US compete and decouple their way to a new Cold War) where can China send it’s manufactured goods to compensate for the lost US market?

Let’s try westward, across the Belt and Road initiative to Europe, and by land to (say) Gwadar thence onward over the sea south-westward to Africa - the largest growth market in the world.

So economically the South China Sea is by and large irrelevant. All it does is provide security by pushing the US military eastward to the big, fat, immovable, sitting duck of the unsinkable (and unmissable) aircraft carrier of Guam – which is pleasingly distant from the Chinese mainland.

win - win - win - win

[Panda-NZ-]

Australia taking things a bit more seriously with corona which is good. Should have shut the borders to America in March and Wuhan in Jan..

[Davexl]

"US fails to build regional coalition against China" (Score: Fail - Please US, try harder...)

by Richard Javad Heydarian - Highly credible commentator IMO

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/us-fai...against-china/


Also a reminder:

"We are balancing our interests on a knife edge, as is Australia. " Also commentary by Singapore on the US attitude towards China...

Australia tells U.S. it has no intention of hurting relationship with China

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...-relationship/

(Remember to delete "cookies" for Japan Times website to access)

[Panda-NZ-]

Regional coalition was the Trans Pacific Partnership I thought.

Though trump still hasn't worked out a deal with them three years in. or even in an easy country like canada.

[Davexl]

Regional coalition was the Trans Pacific Partnership signed by pres Obama.

Though trump still hasn't worked out a deal with them three years in. or even an easy country like canada.

Yes - that is what a Rational Administration would have achieved by now, along with every other achievement that Trump's regime has since undone.

The current Aggressive Chinese regime and the Stupid US "regime" fails to understand the economic and strategic balancing act that has to be maintained currently among regional countries, and the US particularly still views issues thru a bilateral lens vs multilateral, and fails to see the potential economic collateral damage,

- short of either China or the US side doing something stupid and starting a war...

[Ahgong]

[QUOTE=Davexl;834724]Yes - that is what a Rational Administration would have achieved by now, along with every other achievement that Trump's regime has since undone.

The current Aggressive Chinese regime and the Stupid US "regime" fails to understand the economic and strategic balancing act that has to be maintained currently among regional countries, and the US particularly still views issues thru a bilateral lens vs multilateral, and fails to see the potential economic collateral damage,

- short of either China or the US side doing something stupid and starting a war...[/QUOTE ]

A more balanced view below:

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion...nced-diplomacy