Geo Political Risk

[Panda-NZ-]

You demand and I supply.

Russia simply needs to be taken out of the equation and it might be relatively easy with all the discontent and protests there.

It's better than having to deal with the nonsense from them for another 50 years.

[Davexl]

You demand and I supply.

The point is not that the Ukraine isn't a country, but that it is not a united country. It never really has been, but the coup opened the divisions that were already there and there has been civil war since. The US never took the trouble to think how the coup would break the country into two - Russian aligned and western aligned - and has provided Putin with the justification, in his eyes, to move into the Russian aligned East, on the pretext of protecting civilian life.
The tragedy of this situation is that it was completely avoidable. It just required compromise. Europe might have been prepared to do that, but not with the US calling the shots. It would have been so easy - and strategically sensible - to say that there will be a moratorium, say 10 years, on further NATO expansion. The Ukraine would probably not have been able to meet NATO requirements on governance (the Ukraine is and always was, corrupt) in that period anyway.
My final thoughts - some will be happy about that! - is that those who keep repeating the US mantra that a sovereign nation has the right to enter into any military alliance, regardless of the security implications on it's neigbours and region, might one day come to regret that principle being established over the Ukraine. Going forward, it is China, not Russia, that is the threat, particularly in our neck of the woods. China see's the Asia-Pacific region as being it's sphere of influence, and there will come a time when it approaches some heavily in debt island - perhaps close to AUS/NZ - and offers to write off some or all of that debt in exchange for establishing a military port/base. It will be ironic - and entirely predictable - that the US will respond by using the same language that Russia has used over the Ukraine ie. military expansionism is provocative/destabilising and upsets the security balance of the region. Such protests will fall on deaf ears as China will play the "sovereignty" card just as we have. Be careful of what you wish for...

Could it be that the US already knows this, and expects that Russia will stop at the annexing of the 2 territories & Crimea and freeze the situation at that as the effective compromise that both of them may be satisfied with?

[Davexl]

Russia simply needs to be taken out of the equation and it might be relatively easy with all the discontent and protests there.

It's better than having to deal with the nonsense from them for another 50 years.

Was it General Patton in WWII, that thought about continuing eastward to take the Russians out at that time, but decided against it?

[Davexl]

Dramatic updates from Rupert Murdock news.com.au on Granny Herald (subs reqd - I assume everyone has one by now?)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/tan...BI5NCHUAN2Q6A/

[Davexl]

Ukraines' President has just called up his Reserves, urging Ukrainians' to fight for their country... (NYT)

[Davexl]

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[Davexl]

NYT

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Tuesday that he had canceled a planned meeting with his Russian counterpart, but that the United States would continue to pursue diplomacy if Russia takes steps to de-escalate its aggression against Ukraine.

Mr. Blinken had been scheduled to depart Wednesday morning to meet with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov. Speaking to reporters at the State Department alongside Ukraine’s visiting foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, Mr. Blinken said he had sent Mr. Lavrov a letter calling off the meeting.

[Davexl]

Analysis: Putin moves on Donbass but signals deeper designs on Ukraine

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ne-2022-02-22/

[Davexl]

Further details of recent Laser harassment of Aussi P8

https://news.usni.org/2022/02/21/aus...eid=cc0f71bf89

[Davexl]

NYT

Feb. 22, 2022, 7:36 p.m. ET16 minutes ago
16 minutes ago Christoph Koettl

New satellite images show military deployments continuing along the Ukrainian border.



Image


A satellite image taken on Tuesday shows recently arrived military vehicles and tents at an airfield in Belarus.Credit...Maxar Technologies

One week after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia announced a partial withdrawal of troops from the border with Ukraine, newly released satellite images show a different reality. In addition to redeployments in the Belgorod-Valuyki area in western Russia, where there has been a lot of military activity over recent days, new military activities continue to emerge in Belarus.

A satellite image collected by Maxar Technologies on Tuesday morning shows a new deployment, most likely Russian, at an airfield in the village of Velikii Bokov in Belarus. The site is 25 miles from the Ukrainian border, and about 110 miles north of Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.

A Times analysis of prior satellite imagery from that location found that it had been active only since mid-Feburary; a video posted on Feb. 14 showed military fuel tanks heading toward the airfield. Tuesday’s imagery shows that more than 100 vehicles and dozens of tents have arrived.

Some of the locations in Belarus and western Russia are possibly intended as support sites for combat units in case of a Russian attack on Ukraine. In Belgorod, a new field hospital has been set up over the last week at a military garrison 25 miles from the border.