Geo Political Risk

[pierre]

A couple of nights ago I watched the documentary "Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight For Freedom". It showed the violent lead up to the end of the regime of their Pro-Russian president who ultimately fled to Russia where he was given asylum by Putin.

The people of Ukraine now have to cope with Putin's ultimate revenge, but I suspect they will not win their fight for freedom this time.

I found the film compelling and shocking viewing. It's available now on NETFLIX. Here's a review of the film to give you a taste of what it's about:


Review: Documentary ‘Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight For Freedom’ Is Essential Viewing

At the beginning of “Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight For Freedom,” we see the streets of Kiev, Ukraine filled with peaceful demonstrations against the Ukrainian government. The people of the Ukraine want to be a part of Europe and making that official means signing an association agreement with the European Union. But by November of 2013, preparations to sign the agreement were suspended, prompting protests. Three months later, thanks to the continued use of violent methods to disperse of the massive gatherings, the city of Kiev looked like a total war zone. Evgeny Afineevsky’s documentary forces you to feel this transformation, one harrowing step after another. ‘Winter on Fire’ is often difficult to watch, but if you can make it to the end, it’ll be hard not to feel emotionally overwhelmed. A good documentary will shed light on an event you may have otherwise not known much about, a great documentary will make you feel it too. Watching these Ukrainian citizens stand together and find ways to fight back against such brutality — it’s really inspiring stuff.

[Swala]

I watched it last night. Compelling viewing

[BlackPeter]

https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/02/2...-at-its-peril/

It is complicated

westerly

It always is complicated - and sure, every nation has lots of historic grievances to deal with and conspiracy theories to work thorough. Still hard to find a more ridiculous comparison than defending Putin's unprovoked attack on a neighbour country the Soviet Union helped to create when it was useful for them by comparing it to the peaceful recognition of parts of the (by Tito oppressed) former Yugoslavia by western nations.

Looks like the author is a soul mate of Putin. Sick. Why are you elevating this tripe?

Hardly any land bound country in the world which didn't used to have at some stage land which is now the neighbours.

The world agreed to solve these issues by peaceful negotiation within international law;

Putin ignored international law as well as international agreements Russia once signed.

He and his cronies are crooks (assassinating political enemies) , liars ("we don't intend to attack the Ukraine") and murderers (Innocent Ukrainian blood is dropping off their hands) - they don't care about peoples lives, only about more power for themselves.

With the same right which Putin claimed to attack the Ukraine, could Germany e.g. attack Italy (to get Südtirol back), Czechia (to get the Sudetenland back) and France (to get the Elsass back. The Vatican could attack Italy, Austria and Germany to reassemble the once strong Vatican state. Taiwan could attack NZ to rightfully get back what their people once occupied.

Putin is bringing the world order back to its previous state: the law of the jungle.

Only question would be now - how long are we going to duck towards this bully who without doubt will take more and more of what is not his if he sees that we are not just too coward to stand up to him but dumb enough to defend him? Do we want to wait for the new axis of evil merging and the world having to fight Russia and China at the same time?

The world has a choice - unite now and resist the Russian Hitler copycat with all means or continue the appeasing policies and pay later on a much higher price. World War 2 is a good example to show what the cost if the world is too coward to stop a bully early enough in his tracks.

[alokdhir]

Pardon me?

I took you so far for a decent poster, but you can't really mean that ... or can you?

This would be victim blaming to the worst degree. Same as saying that Czechia and e.g. Northern France was equally responsible at the time Hitler invaded them. Is this what you think? Really?

Maybe u didn't read what I meant by both sides ...also pardon me I am not looking for your admiration ....for your information ....both sides meant USA and Russia ....for whose power games poor innocent Ukrainian people are paying the price .....Why u could not make that out from. " Ugly power games of the powerful " U think I will consider Ukraine as powerful !!!

[alokdhir]

OK - thanks for clarifying that, this makes your original statement a bit easier to digest.

Still - hard to see how anybody can put equal blame on the attacking bully and murderer (Russia) as well as on the West (its bigger than the US) who clearly didn't use the opportunities given after the breakdown of the USSR to create a better and fairer world order.

It is a sad reflection on humanity that in all human systems it seems to be much easier for the bullies, thugs and and aggressors to be flushed to the top rather than decent and thoughtful leaders. During the time where the West could have facilitated to generate a better and fairer political system for the world they wasted this time indulging in their greed (making money out of the crumbling Eastern block) and by elevating themselves political monsters and inepts like at the end Trump and Johnson.

So - yes, The West clearly carries some blame for wasting the last 3 decades to create a better world order, but still - they didn't pull the trigger, Wladimir Adolf Hitler Putin did.

Me also jumped the gun...sorry about that ...but if u dont consider Iraqis , Syrians and Afghanistanis and so on as people then U will say I dont understand how west is also to be blamed at background for this .

Why u think Ukrainians had the courage to take on Russia in their minds and actions ...as western powers especially USA encouraged them ...Now did they come to their rescue ?? Understand how they at fault too !!! Only lip service and sanctions ... Same with Russia in Syria ...whole country destroyed ...they also had innocent civilians living there ...No one cared ...Sad sad sad
!!

People keep forgetting its a war between Russia and its partners with west being played this time in Ukraine ....Was in Iraq , Syria , Afghanistan and many other places before ....

In my mind all are people all need to be safe from this kind of power games and bullying ...

[Waltzing]

Those with engineering back ground in the air line business will know if or how the lastest sanctions on all air line parts and servicing.

70 percent of russian air fleet is not built in russia...

Looks like commercial russian air fleet will slowly degrade although they may be able to get the parts on the black market...

Chips being hit and more banking...

May not matter much in the short term but it looks like they are closing the doors on russia..

Looks like oil refinement technologies used by Russia are also supplied by Europe are being sanctioned and over time
Russia will have trouble refining Oil.

Europe may lose Ukraine for the next 25 years or so but Russian Rubble may end up looking a very weak currency... more third world than present..

[Panda-NZ-]

EU should offer residency and free english lessons to russian military defectors.

There are better choices on offer than war crimes.

[Panda-NZ-]

The Russian 47th motorised rifle bridage apparently surrendered to Ukraine (not confirmed).

[Bjauck]

EU should offer residency and free english lessons to russian military defectors.

There are better choices on offer than war crimes.

A good way for Putin to boost the Russian fifth column in the west...

[Panda-NZ-]

Yes, true it will be a security risk. I doubt current russian govt will be around for much longer.