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  1. #151
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    I didnt mean it to be unkind , so apologies if it was taken that way...

    Belarus and Ukraine are not huge sources of geo-political risk for NZ'ers especially. Lets face it , the West doesnt really care about them. No Western nation will go to war with Russia over these nations. We saw that with Georgia which still has parts of it occupied illegally by Russia .
    And Trump is emasculating any international forces bravado, so they are less likely to stand up to even blatant aggression .
    As America steps aside in world peacekeeping duties these microagressions chew away at neighbouring countries rights. It is geopolitically important for Russia to keep this barrier to the West and they will stick at retaining it much more than the West will want to inconvenience itself at the risk of waking the bear.

    Attachment 11863
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    I didnt mean it to be unkind , so apologies if it was taken that way...
    No need to apologise at all Peat. Just trying to get the party going. I've made my points re Western values, Huawei bullying and NZ Defence readiness in these dangerous times and appreciate others stepping up to the plate with their own analysis & insights. Just hope there are others out there willing to contribute to what I find is a fascinating area...
    Last edited by Davexl; 20-08-2020 at 12:58 PM.
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  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davexl View Post
    No need to apologise at all Peat. Just trying to get the party going. I've made my points re Western values, Huawei bullying and NZ Defence readiness in these dangerous times and appreciate others stepping up to the plate with their own analysis & insights. Just hope there are others out there willing to contribute to what I find is a fascinating area...
    Cheers
    I agree it is fascinating and have read a lot of Stratfor and a couple of George Friedmans books.
    Weirdly enough with all this technology and modern world the views I read still mainly seem to focus on what I call traditional areas , such as mountains as dividing ranges, and plains as vulnerable etc and perhaps more justifiably the search for resource ownership

    I wonder whether it wont be long before topology is a lot less relevant with flying drones and maybe at some point cheaper energy.
    Certainly I would have expected more cyber warfare by now and for this to have a bigger part to play in offense/defense than it would appear to have currently. Of course it may be there and I just dont know about it.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  4. #154
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    'A Chinese attack on Taiwan is not imminent' - Well that's nice to know...


    https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/a-chinese-attack-on-taiwan-is-not-imminent/
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  5. #155
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    Pompeo warns Russia, China against ignoring move to reimpose U.N. sanctions on Iran

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-un-sanctions/pompeo-warns-russia-china-against-ignoring-move-to-reimpose-u-n-sanctions-on-iran-idUSKCN25F2S4


    'Pompeo said it was unfortunate that the European members of the council abstained on the U.S. attempt to extend the arms embargo and that the move “makes the European people less safe.” “They just are wedded to this crazy nuclear deal, they’re trying to hang on to it,” he said. '

    Yeah right - the Europeans 'are wedded to this crazy nuclear deal'. Of course they are - it's the sanest thing to do, it's the crazy Trump regime that has it all wrong!
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  6. #156
    Ignorant. Just ignorant.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davexl View Post
    Rebuild our Airforce strike wing, perhaps with the Gripen Fighter. After discussion in the Facebook group 'Friends of the RAN / RNZAF A-4 Skyhawk' group. there seems to be a consensus forming that the Swedish Gripen aircraft would be a good replacement fit for NZ if it rearmed. Better for warfighting in the S/W Pacific domain, using short runways and fast turnaround to rearm and re engine if necessary and fully net-workable.

    Ron Mark, our Defence minister is doing his best to at least upgrade our obsolete equipment, but having no AirStrike wing and only 2 frigates in our "Navy" doesn't cut it in my view anyway, or in the view of some people within NZ's own Defence Community. Ron briefly commented to me that as NZ First, the junior MMP coalition partner, has only 7% of the vote, it doesn't have the leverage to demand a serious level of Defence expenditure within the caucus.

    Traditionally in my memory, NZ maintained 4 frigates as well as the Air Strike Wing. It was a total travesty for Helen Clark, our Prime Minister of the time to dispand our Skyhawks and cancel the F16 deal with the US. Almost treasonous in my personal view. There are repercussions even to this day.

    This is what should be exercising New Zealanders' minds right now IMO:

    There could be an existential threat to NZ within the next 5 - 10 years - I hope that's wrong...

    New-Zealands Dangerous Strategic Apathy in an Uncertain Age


    https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...uncertain-age/

    If you love your country, please read this article
    - these issues cannot be ignored any longer...

    There is still time for New Zealand's Defence establishment to respond - they are fully aware of this situation but are doing next to nothing to upgrade our actual combat capability.

    Australia has upped their 10-year Defence expenditure by 40% - When is New Zealand going to respond ? - It takes political pressure from ALL of us...
    Strike wing? The Gripen?

    New Zealand is a nation which relies on imports and exports, carried over the sea on ships. So what New Zealand needs isn a way to protect the ships which carry its imports and exports.

    How to do that?

    In the air, range maritime reconnaissance capability and capacity. Something which can stay in the air for a long time, something which can see for a long way, and something which can drop the odd piece of ordnance as and if required.

    At sea, well the saga of the cruiser "Royalist" should provide a salutary lesson. Small but heavily armed, and lots of it. After all, what's the lead time for an AN frigate in years?

    And for projecting power into the Pacific? Soft power or hard power? I think the jury might still be out on that one, but time will tell if it will turn out to be a hung jury followed by the traditional inertia.

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by GTM 3442 View Post
    Strike wing? The Gripen?

    New Zealand is a nation which relies on imports and exports, carried over the sea on ships. So what New Zealand needs isn a way to protect the ships which carry its imports and exports.

    How to do that?

    In the air, range maritime reconnaissance capability and capacity. Something which can stay in the air for a long time, something which can see for a long way, and something which can drop the odd piece of ordnance as and if required.

    At sea, well the saga of the cruiser "Royalist" should provide a salutary lesson. Small but heavily armed, and lots of it. After all, what's the lead time for an AN frigate in years?

    And for projecting power into the Pacific? Soft power or hard power? I think the jury might still be out on that one, but time will tell if it will turn out to be a hung jury followed by the traditional inertia.
    Interesting points,

    I guess the forthcoming P8 upgrades takes care of the first part of the equation, although if we had a bigger budget we would get a couple more, considering the rapidly increasing surveillance need over NZ's enormous maritime domain including the nation states of the SW Pacific.

    Soft power vs hard power. I personally think we absolutely must do both as Australia is doing, considering the leadtimes right now. Soft power is irrelevant if push comes to shove, especially if we are to do our bit in the SW Pacific. Once China establishes a base there it's a serious problem.

    There is a risk that unless Aust & NZ step up more, eg with Covid assistance should it hit the islands, China could move in with 'hard money' and establish a beachhead. The Pacific step-up should help but...
    Last edited by Davexl; 21-08-2020 at 01:54 PM.
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  8. #158
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    How Huawei landed at the centre of global tech tussle

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/3...al-tech-tussle

    Quite a good recap on the mega technology battle continuing between the US & China
    (Background history up to most recent August supply-chain developments)
    Last edited by Davexl; 21-08-2020 at 02:01 PM.
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  9. #159
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    Fast developing situation:

    Alexei Navalny to be flown to Germany for suspected poisoning treatment

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ning-treatment
    Last edited by Davexl; 22-08-2020 at 08:08 AM. Reason: Update
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  10. #160
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    More attempts at bullying by Pompeo, first on Huawei and now Iran, despite the fact it was in full compliance with the JCPOA until the US stupidly terminated an agreement where negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 began in 2006. All that incredibly hard work undone by a stupid Trump regime, led by an even more ignorant Trump...

    Iran sanctions: nearly all UN security council unites against 'unpleasant' US


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...un-mike-pompeo
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

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