Geo Political Risk

[Panda-NZ-]

Well, don't overestimate the Russians either. It was not Russia winning against Germany ... It was a coalition of Americans, British, French and --- yes millions of Russian soldiers. I think they (all allied forces together) needed something like eleven time the numbers of soldiers the Germans had and it still took them four years to defeat them.

Hardly a reason to shake in the boots against the Russians alone ... but sure - any coward and weakling can be strong if he bullies the Rest of the world with the threat to use their nuclear weapons.

Only Napoleon could stand against a coalition of five strong countries. Russia is facing over 30, with only mediocre people in charge.

[Davexl]

Just in time for the summer driving season -plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose (Oil prices?)

1h ago 02:23
President Joe Biden’s administration is considering releasing 1 million barrels of oil a day for several months from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to reduce gasoline prices, two senior US officials have said.

Biden is expected to give remarks on Thursday on his administration’s actions, the White House said, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sanctions on Moscow have driven up the price of oil.

The White House said Biden will deliver remarks at 1:30pm ET (5:30pm GMT) on “his administration’s actions to reduce the impact of Putin’s price hike on energy prices and lower gas prices at the pump for American families.” It did not give additional details.

The Biden administration is considering another release of oil from the SPR to help stabilise global energy markets that, if carried out, could be bigger than the sale of 30 million barrels earlier this month, a US source said on Friday.

International Energy Agency member states agreed to release over 60 million barrels of oil reserves earlier in March, with 30 million barrels coming from the US SPR.

The Biden administration is considering temporarily removing restrictions on summer sales of higher-ethanol gasoline blends as a way to lower fuel costs for US consumers, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Adding more ethanol to gasoline blends could potentially reduce prices at US gas pumps because ethanol, which is made from corn, is currently cheaper than straight gasoline.

[Davexl]

48m ago 22:09
Ukraine neutrality would need to go to referendum in process that could take at least a year

It could take at least a year for Ukraine to hold a referendum on its neutrality - a key Russian demand to end the war - according to the head of Ukraine’s delegation at peace talks with Russia.

David Arakhamia told the Financial Times that the parties were close to agreement on the security guarantees and Ukraine’s EU bid, but urged caution about the prospects for a breakthrough.
“All the issues” have been “on the table since the beginning” of negotiations but “lots of points — like in every single item there are unresolved points”, Arakhamia said.

Any prospective deal would have to be agreed with the guarantors and ratified by their parliaments, Zelenskiy reiterated on Sunday.

Ukraine would then put the deal to a national referendum where any decision would ultimately be made by the people of Ukraine. This would not occur until perhaps several months’ time before a possible change to constitution — a process that could require at least a year.

The only resolved [issue] is the type of international guarantees Ukraine is looking for, but . . . we still have to get the approval from the guarantors otherwise the deal will never fly,” Arakhamia said.

In a TV interview, Arakhamia said declaring neutrality would require three million signatures to be registered.
“This is a big procedure that cannot take place outside of peaceful territory,” he said.


1h ago 22:01
Martin Farrer

Germany could ration power if a standoff over a Russian demand to pay for fuel with roubles disrupts or halts supplies.

Germany’s economy minister, Robert Habeck, on Wednesday implemented the “early warning phase” of an existing gas emergency plan, where a crisis team from the economics ministry, the regulator and the private sector will monitor imports and storage.

Habeck told reporters Germany’s gas supplies were guaranteed for now but urged consumers and companies to reduce consumption, saying that “every kilowatt hour counts”.


A bus passes by the Adlershof gas-fired power station in Berlin on Wednesday. Photograph: Michael Sohn/AP

If supplies fall short, Germany’s network regulator can ration gas, with industry first in line for cuts and preferential treatment for private households, hospitals and other critical institutions.

Paying in Russia’s currency would undercut the effectiveness of western sanctions on the Kremlin for its invasion of Ukraine and Germany, which depends on Russia for much of its natural gas, is under pressure not to accede to the demand.

Moscow is expected to make public its plans for rouble payments on Thursday, Reuters says, although it said it would not immediately demand that buyers pay for gas exports in the currency.

As analysts waited for more clarity on the situation and whether Russia would cut off supplies, figures showed that March was the most expensive month for power prices in European history, analysts at Rystad Energy said on Thursday, breaking the record set in December for the big five European markets (Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain).

Italy will end up with highest average prices, above €300 for the month of March.
UK, France and Spain are not far behind, all close to €300, and then a sizable gap down to Germany around €250 and the Nordics around €140.

[Davexl]

Will it hold this time or will the Ukrainian army be attacked on the corridor ?

34m ago 04:55
Russia announces ceasefire in Mariupol

The Russian defence ministry announced a local ceasefire on Thursday to allow civilians to be evacuated from Ukraine’s besieged port city of Mariupol, according to Agence France-Presse.

A humanitarian corridor from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia, via the Russian-controlled port of Berdiansk, would be opened from 10am (7am GMT), the ministry said on Wednesday.
“For this humanitarian operation to succeed, we propose to carry it out with the direct participation of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Committee of the Red Cross,” the ministry statement said.

The Russian ministry asked Kyiv to guarantee the “unconditional respect” for the ceasefire through written notification to the Russian side, the UNHCR and ICRC before 6am (3am GMT) Thursday.

Moscow also asked the Ukrainian army to commit to ensure the security of the bus convoys along the designated corridor.
The ministry also said it had agreed to a proposal from Kyiv to open in the last 24 hours four new humanitarian corridors from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia.

[Davexl]

1h ago 23:18
Rouble recovers to pre-war levels

The Russian rouble has recovered to its pre-war value despite western sanctions on the country’s exports and financial systems.
The currency was trading at 75.5 to one US dollar on Thursday morning, compared with almost 140 to the dollar at the beginning of March when it crashed with the onest of sanctions. That is actually better than it was on 22 February, two days before the invasion, when it was at 80 per dollar.


A 200 rouble note. Photograph: Dado Ruvić/Reuters

Russia has bolstered the currency by raising interest rates to 20% – therefore encouraging investment in the rouble – and imposing capital controls which mean that people cannot swap roubles for other currencies.

The Kremlin’s threat to make European gas importers like Germany pay for their supplies in roubles – thus boosting the currency’s value – has also helped. More help has come from China and India, which have increased the amount of Russian oil they are buying thanks to generous discounts from Moscow.

[BlackPeter]

So for years we've thought that we were living in a tri-polar world: the USA, China, and Russia.

Now we see Russia reduced pretty much to a laughing-stock. if the reports of equipment failure are to be believed, this is the end of Russia's status as a world power, or even a player - high-tech defence credibility chucked out the window and falling fast toward the pavement.

So the question becomes who steps up? And is there even room for a third player in an increasingly bi-polar world?

Any ideas anyone?

Not too hard to see ...

Obviously - there is the US (still player number 1) ... but their relative economical power will shrink. Internal divisions and a debt load they won't be able to repay will take its toll and result at best in a deflation of the US$ (at worst in a debt crisis) and likely in a loss of the US acting as the provider of the major reserve currency. Nuclear power, though.

China is number 2, their economy is still quite rapidly rising and they will take over the leading GDP positon in the next handful of years. Obviously - they do have nuclear weapons as well.

If the European Union finds a way to speak with one voice - they easily could turn into Number 2 or even number 1. Question is just - will they? Putin did a great job to split the UK off the EU. Ah yes, and obviously - Europe is a nuclear power as well (through France).

India well might go for a seat in this club as well and scoring positon 4 (or even 3)? Lots of people, growing economy and soldiers are cheap. Ah yes, and they do have nuclear weapons as well.

Russia? Sorry, but they lost their leading villain position a long time ago. I suppose they will soon have a coup or a revolution with a subsequent internal blood bath when the next crook tries to secure (likely) his position and an economy half the size of Italy would even in good times not really matter on the world stage ... even if they hold to their nuclear weapons (and if they still work - who knows?). Obviously - still dangerous to have an uninformed idiot who surrounds himself with yes men with access to the nuclear button ... but hey, this is not much worse than the US under Trump, isn't it?

OK - so I am going for Europe (EU) and India as contenders for the club.

[Waltzing]

"China is number 2, their economy is still quite rapidly rising "

china has a HUGE property problem looming and it share market is tiny in comparison surely.

With a new error (era take your pick) in direction of MAO about to start in the villages and little red books all set to go again they might not have the spark to ignite growth.

Yes EU and INDIA maybe right!

[Panda-NZ-]

Obviously - there is the US (still player number 1) ... but their relative economical power will shrink. Internal divisions and a debt load they won't be able to repay will take its toll and result at best in a deflation of the US$ (at worst in a debt crisis) and likely in a loss of the US acting as the provider of the major reserve currency. Nuclear power, though.

It's stunning they still have institutions and legislation which were created in the post-war era and not changed at all since then.

Bickering and "town halls from hell" stop their modernisation. NZ, australia, europe and UK are still able to get things done.

[Panda-NZ-]

When times get tough send in some slaves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdRN7RBWDII


Russia does have a history of making pointless sacrafice though.

[GTM 3442]

Pretty plain.

However it's beyond Ukraine's reach to cut the head off the snake.

So the question becomes. . . who has long enough arms?


https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...itions-ukraine