Geo Political Risk

[jonu]

Interesting posts dibble and Jaa.

China has historically played a very long game. The last 20 years has seen China incrementally adopt Western Capitalism to suit its own purposes, but at some point (perhaps already reached) it will be difficult to control the cultural changes that flow from it.

[macduffy]

An interesting thread but shouldn't it be in the Off Market Discussions forum, rather than the NZX forum which is for instruments listed on the NZX.

[Panda-NZ-]

I'm hearing things though the grapevine that the australian economy is going to be in difficulty soon. They started a trade war with china a few months ago and the second covid lockdown in Victoria is an added challenge for them.

Our main risk is to do with trade and hopefully we can do more of the digital services exports in the US/Europe. food is something everyone needs and our competition is mainly in south america this time of year which is doing poorly. Premium prices for our food exports maybe?

[kiwidollabill]

I'm hearing things though the grapevine that the australian economy is going to be in difficulty soon. They started a trade war with china a few months ago and the second covid lockdown in victoria is an added challenge for them.

Our main risk is to do with trade and hopefully we can do more of the digital services exports in the US/Europe. food is something everyone needs and our competition is mainly in south america this time of year which is doing poorly. Premium prices for our food exports maybe?

Sure are... some pretty strong retoric coming out against the Ozzies.

China were going to impose additional 'inspections' on every ship of iron ore, likely a move to covertly play the trade war game. They pulled back when COVID starting to hit Brazil, at the momment they need ozzy for the ore (but expect that to change). At the moment they dont have an alternative trade partner to coking coal (neither India nor the US would be interested in selling to them). Find some big reserves in Africa and they're in real trouble...

[Jaa]

I'm hearing things though the grapevine that the australian economy is going to be in difficulty soon. They started a trade war with china a few months ago and the second covid lockdown in Victoria is an added challenge for them.

Australia didn't start a trade war, they called for an international investigation into the origins of COVID-19. Something that could save 100,000s of lives. This is standard practice anywhere else in the world but such an investigation would show up at the very least the incompetency of CCP rule.

China responded with its now typical "glass heart" petulance with a cyber-attack and the kind of non-tariff trade barriers they specialise in. e.g. increased inspections, delayed permits, delayed/cancelled orders, pressure on Australian citizens in China etc. They have done this with NZ too in the past with our milk exports, turning boats around in mid ocean and other nonsense. Time for the world to require free trade reciprocity with China.

Such petulance and tone-deafness was also on display in their harassment of and forced quarantine of African citizens in Guangdong and criticism of the French public health response to COVID-19 and is losing China any support and friends it once had.

I have even heard calls for a "Made in the Free World" campaign.

[Davexl]

Something that arrived in my inbox that people might be interested in:

The CSIS Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative are pleased to present the Tenth Annual South China Sea Conference: Keynote and Session One on Tuesday, July 14, 2020. This monthly webinar series will provide opportunities for in-depth discussion and analysis of developments in the South China Sea over the past year and potential paths forward. This session will feature a keynote address by Assistant Secretary of State David R. Stilwell, followed by a panel discussion on the state of play in the South China Sea in 2020.


https://mailchi.mp/csis.org/webinar-...2?e=11d5ef38a9

Also something potentially major from the US on the South China Sea situation to take notice of this week:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ons-escalating

or if you can't access it try this: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.XwuoVeexVPY

Cheers people...

[GTM 3442]

Fortifying the South China Sea allows China to cut oil supplies to South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan at will. It also denies the US effective use of the Philippines as a military base for aerial operations against China.

Effectively, China is militarily securing it's eastern borders thus facilitating its westward orientation.

[Davexl]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/south-china-sea-us-says-beijings-claims-to-disputed-area-completely-unlawful

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-maritime/u-s-rejects-chinas-claims-in-south-china-sea-adding-to-tensions-idUSKCN24E2OU

South China Sea-US says Beijings claims to disputed area Completely-Unlawful

Now that the US has formally taken sides with ASEANs recent statements on the South China Sea, watch the tensions ratchet up even further

Also this day: https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/philip...uth-china-sea/ the Philippines reiterates its 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling at The Hague against its (China's) expansive claims to the South China Sea

And Japan confirms the same issue: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKCN24F040

while the US confirms it is "in business" still despite Coronavirus and not intimidated by Chinas threats against its carriers:
https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/us-nav...killer-threat/

[Onion]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/south-china-sea-us-says-beijings-claims-to-disputed-area-completely-unlawful

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-maritime/u-s-rejects-chinas-claims-in-south-china-sea-adding-to-tensions-idUSKCN24E2OU

South China Sea-US says Beijings claims to disputed area Completely-Unlawful

Now that the US has formally taken sides with ASEANs recent statements on the South China Sea, watch the tensions ratchet up even further

I’m not a fan of sabre rattling, but I think the world has been sitting on its hands while China has been thrusting its influence in to many parts of the globe. If China wants to be a world player then it should be held to account.

An interesting podcast that discusses America’s “too trusting” stance is available here: https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-china/

[Jaa]

I have always seen the CCP's ridiculous and entirely fictional nine dash line as something similar to Imperial Japan's Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere in the 1930s. There's an oily reason why it dips so close to the Bruneian and Malaysian coasts.