Geo Political Risk

[GTM 3442]

Meanwhile, Russia and China start to re-define their relationship. . .


https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/rosn...uture-in-asia/

[Davexl]

Finally, a more principled, more nuanced approach to managing the Huawei / China relationship
that doesn't damage US' security interests (esp Taiwan) and its allies diplomatic interests (with China)

'Washington’s China policy has lost its Wei'

US needs new strategy of ‘principled interdependence’ to address Huawei and China’s high-tech risks

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/washin...-lost-its-wei/

"In addition, having Huawei and other Chinese firms integrated into US-led ecosystems is not just smart business, it also makes the US safer. China is less likely to make radical advancements or place backdoors in its silicon when its products are rooted in our (US) foundational technologies. And because of close commercial ties, the US has greater visibility into the progress China does make."

"Having a stake in each other’s success helps cement closer US ties with South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and ASEAN, and all of them with each other. A similar logic of shared interests because of economic interdependence has tempered China’s diplomatic and security behavior over the long run.
Chinese actions in the South China Sea and elsewhere are deeply troubling, but fewer economic ties would lower the costs of such actions to China."

[Davexl]

China, U.S. tensions raise Taiwan conflict fears

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...onflict-fears/

“By simultaneously conducting drills in the three seas, it means China is testing its ability to fight enemies
coming from three directions at the same time — for example from Taiwan, from Japan and from the U.S. from the south,” he said.
“Historically, frequent drills are a clear predictor of war.”

"A hypothetical scenario spelled out in a recent essay by James Winnefeld, a former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
and Michael Morrell, former acting director of the Central Intelligence Agency, has made the rounds in Taiwan security circles.

In their suggested sequence of events, set out in the Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, a disputed U.S. election
gives China the opportunity to move on Taiwan while Washington and the rest of the world are distracted."

[greater fool]

Missing the schism now under way? It's easy to react to the latest Fakebook post and miss the transformational. There is an opportunity that Japan may move away from the hegemony of the Great Satan.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/28/national/politics-diplomacy/shinzo-abe-resign/


https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/26/national/donald-trump-second-term-japan-us/

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/abes-d...n-great-again/

Legacies of WWII and occupation.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...i-anniversary/

[Davexl]

Legacies of WWII and occupation.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...i-anniversary/

An excellent summary history lesson on Japan's legacy. Thank You. I personally don't believe that Japan has ever fully atoned for its war-time atrocities against China & Korea, or the US & its allies either - compared with Germany. There is still work to do, for the living that remain, and for the next generation who remember what happened...

[Davexl]

A subtle policy shift, while claiming it's not - something to build on?

"U.S. announces Taiwan initiative, declassifies documents, citing China pressure"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN25R2WJ

[greater fool]

A hawk in the Pentagon reckons the Bear is coming to get the sacred Eagle.
Think he is trying to influence defence policy commitments leading up to an election?

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/russia...s-near-alaska/

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/red-al...ng-no-punches/

[Davexl]

More coercive actions against Aust business / trade activity. Aust's worsening situation...

China ramps up coercive diplomacy as Australian winemakers hit twice

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...31-p55qv2.html

"A new report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has called for a broad coalition of countries to be formed to
call out the CCP's increased use of coercive diplomacy and to factor in the heightened risk of doing business with China.

The report documents 152 instances of Chinese Communist Party acts of coercive diplomacy
between 2010 and 2020, with a sharp escalation beginning two years ago.

Of the 19 cases of trade restrictions over the past 10 years, more than half occurred since 2018."

[Davexl]

With eye on China, U.S. aims to 'formalize' four-nation 'Quad' security grouping

Move comes as Japan, Australia, India and U.S. harden line on Beijing

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...china-us-quad/

“I think there’s plenty of reason to bring other countries into this discussion as well,” he said,
noting recent talks on how to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic that included senior officials
from the four countries and South Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand.

[Davexl]

Defying China’s wrath, Czech senator delivers Taiwan speech

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/01/defy...an-speech.html

"Defying anger from China, the president of the Czech Republic’s Senate addressed Taiwan’s national legislature
on Tuesday, offering a strong rebuke to authoritarian politics and Beijing’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy."