Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

US plans big expansion of navy fleet to challenge growing Chinese sea power

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/17/us-plans-big-expansion-of-navy-fleet-to-challenge-growing-chinese-sea-power

[greater fool]

US plans big expansion of navy fleet to challenge growing Chinese sea power

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/17/us-plans-big-expansion-of-navy-fleet-to-challenge-growing-chinese-sea-power

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/mili...olve-modernise

"the risks of naval confrontation between the two countries are increasing, because the ‘freedom of navigation’ appeal by the US is in essence to maintain its own hegemonic status and, in this sense, Washington is destined to clamp down on every Chinese move that will help the Chinese naval capability build up,”


https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/polit...it-record-high

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific...a-sea-1.627890

https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/sout...ion-operation/

https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/us-c...s-in-spratlys/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKCN24H0D5

South China Sea - fear of the loss of hegemony.
Freedom of Navigation excercises were used in the Persian Gulf.
The USS Stark and USS Vincennes were able to "expose" National Security challenges.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Vincennes_(CG-49)
"dispatched to the Persian Gulf in 1988 in support of Operation Earnest Will during the Iran–Iraq War. Operating in this capacity the
cruiser shot down Iran Air Flight 655 over the Persian Gulf, killing 290 passengers and sparking an international incident between
Iran and the United States."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Stark_incident
"The USS Stark incident occurred during the Iran–Iraq War on 17 May 1987, when an Iraqi jet aircraft fired two Exocet missiles at
the American frigate USS Stark. A total of thirty-seven United States Navy personnel were killed or later died as a result of the attack,
and twenty-one were injured........................................... ..
Washington used the incident to pressure Iran, which it later blamed for the whole situation. President Reagan said "We've never
considered them [Iraq's military] hostile at all", and "the villain in the piece is Iran".[7][8][9]"

Freedom of Navigation exercises in South China Sea now risk a 'Gulf of Tonkin' incident.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Gul...onkin-incident

https://www.smh.com.au/national/echo...13-p55v4s.html

At the end of WWII America was at it's peak in warfaring. They tried to move on a weak China, weakened by its
civil war, by attacking through Korea. America got a bloody nose for their efforts.

https://koreanwarlegacy.org/chapters...he-yalu-river/

[greater fool]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/mili...olve-modernise

"the risks of naval confrontation between the two countries are increasing, because the ‘freedom of navigation’ appeal by the US is in essence to maintain its own hegemonic status and, in this sense, Washington is destined to clamp down on every Chinese move that will help the Chinese naval capability build up,”


https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/polit...it-record-high

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific...a-sea-1.627890

https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/sout...ion-operation/

https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/us-c...s-in-spratlys/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKCN24H0D5

South China Sea - fear of the loss of hegemony.
Freedom of Navigation excercises were used in the Persian Gulf.
The USS Stark and USS Vincennes were able to "expose" National Security challenges.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Vincennes_(CG-49)
"dispatched to the Persian Gulf in 1988 in support of Operation Earnest Will during the Iran–Iraq War. Operating in this capacity the
cruiser shot down Iran Air Flight 655 over the Persian Gulf, killing 290 passengers and sparking an international incident between
Iran and the United States."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Stark_incident
"The USS Stark incident occurred during the Iran–Iraq War on 17 May 1987, when an Iraqi jet aircraft fired two Exocet missiles at
the American frigate USS Stark. A total of thirty-seven United States Navy personnel were killed or later died as a result of the attack,
and twenty-one were injured........................................... ..
Washington used the incident to pressure Iran, which it later blamed for the whole situation. President Reagan said "We've never
considered them [Iraq's military] hostile at all", and "the villain in the piece is Iran".[7][8][9]"

Freedom of Navigation exercises in South China Sea now risk a 'Gulf of Tonkin' incident.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Gul...onkin-incident

https://www.smh.com.au/national/echo...13-p55v4s.html

At the end of WWII America was at it's peak in warfaring. They tried to move on a weak China, weakened by its
civil war, by attacking through Korea. America got a bloody nose for their efforts.

https://koreanwarlegacy.org/chapters...he-yalu-river/

The USA play book is rather thin. Another replay of the Persian Gulf 'Operation Earnest Will"
coming up?

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/pompeo...-persian-gulf/

[Davexl]

Taiwan calls for global coalition against China's aggression as US official flies in

Taipei speaks of ‘real possibility’ of war as US undersecretary for economic affairs pays visit that Beijing regards as provocative




https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...icial-flies-in

[Davexl]

Taiwan pledges deeper U.S. ties as Chinese jets harry island


https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...-envoys-visit/

[Davexl]

Outgoing US ambassador to China blames Beijing for coronavirus as he heads home to help Trump

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/18/a...hnk/index.html

And while Branstad said the US "has taken the lead" on holding Beijing to account, he pointed
to growing discontent elsewhere in the world, which he put down to China's increasingly aggressive
diplomacy, as well as the country's failure to contain the initial coronavirus outbreak.

"It's really I think the communist system of China, and their unwillingness to admit wrongdoing.
That caused this whole thing to happen. And that's the tragedy of it," Branstad said.


"Interest for people around the world in working with and supporting China has gone down
dramatically, not just in the United States."

[GTM 3442]

Thinking About China. . . another link to add to the pile.

https://www.principles.com/the-chang...rder/#chapter5

[GTM 3442]

A view from Germany. . . put it in the corner with the others

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-the-thr...res/a-54944934

[greater fool]

A view from Germany. . . put it in the corner with the others

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-the-thr...res/a-54944934

There are plenty of opinions around. Here's another one, with some background reasoning for the opinion;

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion...-warmonger-far
"The report calculates that the US “‘war on terror’” since the September 11 attacks has cost not only millions of lives and injuries, but also forcibly displaced
at least 37 million people in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, the Philippines, Libya and Syria: “The US military has waged war continuously for
almost two decades,” it said.

“US forces have fought in wars or participated in other combat operations in at least 24 countries. The destruction inflicted by warfare in these countries has been incalculable for civilians and combatants, for US military personnel and their family members, and for entire societies.” ........................

"Whatever Pompeo and his colleagues say about China’s warmongering ambitions, it is again the US that leads the world by far in defence spending.
Of the global total of US$1.92 trillion last year, the US accounted for 38 per cent"...........................

“We have met the enemy, and he is us”.
Today, it is no joke.If hot war is indeed an existential threat, then there is likely to be only one source – and it is not China."

[Davexl]

A view from Germany. . . put it in the corner with the others

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-the-thr...res/a-54944934

For me personally, the following rang true:

For Wu (the Foreign Minister), it is in the democratic world's own interests to support Taiwan against China's aggression — before it is too late. "They are trying to export the authoritarian international order while democracies are following the rule-based international order," he said. "If China succeeds in taking Taiwan over — I think the rest of the world, especially for democracies, is going to feel the heat. China is expanding outward. Taiwan happens to be on the front line."