Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

1h ago22.02

Russia is shifting its elite military units away from the besieged city of Mariupol to eastern Ukraine where they “pounded away at cities across the region”, according to the Associated Press.
Cities and villages across Donbas – an industrial region in the eastern part of Ukraine – were bombarded as the Kremlin sent over more than 100,000 new troops from Syria and Libya into Ukraine.
From the AP:

Mariupol has taken on outsize importance in the war. Capturing it would deprive the Ukrainians of a vital port and complete a land corridor between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, which Putin seized from Ukraine in 2014.

It would also enable Putin to throw more of his forces into the potentially climactic battle for the Donbas and its coal mines, factories and other industries, or what the Kremlin has now declared to be its main objective.
[Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defense council] reported that some 12 to 14 of Russia’s elite military units have, in fact, left Mariupol and begun moving to the east to take part in the fighting there.


“It will now be difficult for our forces, because our guys in Mariupol were taking [those units] on themselves. It is their courage and feat,” he said.

Danilov also said Kyiv was able to deliver weapons via helicopter at great risk under cover of night to the Mariupol steelworks, which have been bombarded for weeks.

1h ago21.46

"There is a possibility" a humanitarian corridor out of Mariupol could open on Saturday, says Ukraine deputy prime minister

Ukraine deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that “there is a possibility” a humanitarian corridor could be opened up out of the port of Mariupol on Saturday, Reuters is reporting. Vereshchuk relayed the message in a video address to people waiting be evacuated from the besieged city.

“Watch the official announcements tomorrow morning. If all goes well, I will confirm,” she said.

[Davexl]

2h ago21.01

Europe can get by without Russian gas for six months, but beyond that, the economic impact would be severe, a senior International Monetary Fund (IMF) official has told Agence France-Presse, the agency writes.

Alfred Kammer, head of the IMF’s European department, urged countries in the region to take a series of steps to ease the blow, including reducing consumption to build up inventory.
The region relies on Russia for the vast majority of its energy needs, especially natural gas, and IMF economists looked at the economic cost of losing Moscow’s supply.


Alfred Kammer poses outside of IMF headquarters during the IMF World Bank spring meetings on Friday. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty ImagesSpeaking on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings, Kammer told AFP:

Over the first six months, Europe can deal with such a shutoff [by] having alternative supplies [and] using existing storage.

However, if that gas shut off were to last into the winter, and over a longer period, then that would have significant effects.

Western countries have considered putting an embargo on Russian energy in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine, while Moscow could also shut off exports to hit back at the damaging sanctions already imposed on the government.

The International Monetary Fund projects that a total loss of Russian gas and oil supplies could cost the European Union 3% of GDP, depending on the severity of the winter.
He called for steps to prepare for the possibility.

“There is no single option, which has a large impact, but lots of smaller measures will have a larger impact,” he said, including by finding alternative suppliers, which some countries already have begun to do.

Consumers also have an important role to play and governments can raise awareness among their population through “public campaigns to reduce energy consumption”.
“The consumer can act now,” he said, and reducing consumption meant more fuel could be stored in case supplies are interrupted.

Although the war in Ukraine has slowed growth sharply, Kammer said it “will not derail the recovery” and he does not expect a Europe-wide recession.

The major eurozone economies, with the exception of Spain, will be “weak in 2022” and will see a quarter or two of near-zero growth or even a technical recession with two negative quarters.
But the IMF expects these economies to recover in the second half of this year.

The Russian attack on its neighbor has caused a flood of about five million refugees, creating a challenge for European countries which face strains on their budgets as they deal with the influx.
Poland, which which has taken in the most Ukrainians, is particularly affected.
What happens to those people, mostly women and children, after the war remains a question.

“Some of these refugees will stay in Europe, I’m sure about that,” said Kammer, who noted that could be “a boon” for countries faced with ageing populations and a lack of workers.
“But it could be a bad for Ukraine if too many of the refugees are going to stay.”


From the Financial Times:

Bundesbank warns of €180bn hit to Germany from Russian gas embargo

An immediate EU ban on Russian gas imports would cost Germany €180bn in lost output this year, the country’s powerful central bank has warned. The Bundesbank said in its latest monthly bulletin that a Russian gas embargo would dent gross domestic product by 5 per cent in 2022, triggering a surge in energy prices and one of the deepest recessions of recent decades.

[Davexl]

3h ago20.17

Security guarantees will make Ukraine "impregnable" to future attack – British PM

Western allies are preparing to offer Ukraine a series of “security guarantees” which should make the country “impregnable” to a future Russian invasion, Boris Johnson has said, as the Press Association reports. Here’s more of what the British prime minister has been talking about during his visit to India.
Johnson said it was essential to step up immediate military support to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, as he warned there was a “realistic possibility” that the conflict could drag on for a “long period”.



Alex Ellis, British high commissioner to India, takes a selfie with Boris Johnson as his boards his plane for the UK at Delhi airport at the end of his two day trip to India, on Friday. Photograph: WPA/Getty Images

He said Britain was looking to send tanks to “backfill” in Poland so Soviet-era T-72s – with which Ukrainian crews are familiar – can be released to the government in Kyiv.

But, speaking in the Indian capital, Delhi, while on a visit, Johnson said a long-term vision for Ukraine’s place in the future “security architecture” of Europe also needed to be developed.

While he said it would not be the same as the Nato Article 5 guarantee – in which an attack on one member state of the US-led military alliance is considered to be an attack on all members – he hoped it would offer “deterrence by denial”.

Johnson said:

What the Ukrainians want – and I think are now going to get – is a collection of guarantees from like-minded countries about what we can do to back them up with weaponry, with training and with intelligence-sharing.

It will, I hope, enable the Ukrainians to offer deterrence by denial and make sure their territory is so fortified as to be impregnable to further attack from Russia. That is what we need to do.

Johnson earlier took what could be seen as a pessimistic or a realistic stance when he said that, having made a “catastrophic blunder”, Russian president Vladimir Putin could get bogged down in a “grinding” offensive that lasts at least the rest of this year but ends in military defeat for Ukraine.


3h ago19.54

The US military expects more than 20 countries to attend Ukraine-focused defence talks it will host in Germany next week that will focus in part on Kyiv’s long-term defense needs, the Pentagon said on Friday, Reuters reports.

However, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby appeared to play down expectations of announcements about long-term assistance at the 26 April talks.
“We’re not going into this with a pre-cooked set of endings here,” he said.

He added that about 40 countries were invited to attend the talks, which were not being organized under the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) alliance umbrella, and include non-Nato nation states.

[Davexl]

4h ago19.00
Summary

It is 9pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand now:

• Fears are growing for hundreds of civilians holed up in the Azovstal steel factory in Mariupol, with the last remaining, outgunned contingent of Ukrainian fighters. Russia’s defence ministry said it was ready to allow civilians to leave the steelworks if Ukrainian forces surrendered. But according to Petro Andryushchenko, an adviser to Mariupol’s mayor, Russian forces are continuing to drop bombs on the plant.

• A senior EU official said Russia will likely increase its military attacks in eastern Ukraine and along the country’s coast. The “next couple of weeks” could be potentially decisive for the war, the official said.

• Russian military official, Rustam Minnekayev, said Russia plans to take full control of Donbas and southern Ukraine as part of the second phase of its military operation. Russia intends to forge a land corridor between Crimea and Donbas, he said, adding that control of Ukraine’s south will give Russia another gateway to Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria.

• Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, confirmed reports that “several long conversations” had been held with Ukraine today but he gave no details. Separately, Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, who has previously accused Ukraine of dragging out the peace process, said diplomatic efforts to end the war remained stalled.

• The UN secretary general, António Guterres, will visit Moscow on Tuesday to meet with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, where he “hopes to talk about what can be done to bring peace to Ukraine urgently”, his spokesperson said. Guterres will also have a working meeting and lunch with the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.

• The president of the European Council, Charles Michel, held a call with Vladimir Putin this morning. An EU official said Michel urged the Russian leader to engage directly with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy.The Kremlin said Putin accused the Ukrainian side of being “inconsistent” in negotiations. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said he was planning to hold phone calls with Zelenskiy and Putin in the coming days.

• Russia has been hiding evidence of its “barbaric” war crimes in Mariupol by burying the bodies of civilians killed by shelling in a new mass grave that could hold as many as 9,000 dead, local officials said. It comes after a US satellite imagery company released photos that appeared to match the site.

• The UN human rights office said it has seen growing evidence of war crimes in Ukraine, describing the war as a “horror story of violations against civilians”. The UN human rights commissioner, Michelle Bachelet, said “almost every resident” of the town of Bucha had a story about the death of a relative, a neighbour or even a stranger.

• The head of the UN atomic watchdog, Rafael Grossi, said he will visit Ukraine’s Chernobyl nuclear plant next week. Grossi will head an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mission “to deliver vital equipment and conduct radiological and other assessments at the site”, which was held by Russian forces for five weeks, the agency said in a statement.

• Boris Johnson has said he will close loopholes to ensure UK exports to India cannot end up being used in Russian weapons. Speaking in Delhi at the end of a two-day visit, the UK prime minister conceded the war in Ukraine could go on until the end of next year, and Russia could win. Johnson also announced that Britain is to reopen its Kyiv embassy.

[Panda-NZ-]

Alexei is as brave as ukrainian president zelensky:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81AAlzoKNPU

Now two russian oligarchs and their families recently found dead.

https://www.businessinsider.com/2-ru...reports-2022-4

[BlackPeter]

I look to her upbringing on a dairy farm in Morrinsville, hinting at conservative, christian values, though agnostic, proud of her relatives' defence service among other things, but she ended up on the left, people person, social justice etc. Not a communist at all

I think she is fast realising just how dangerous China's achievement in corrupting the Solomon Islands government really is, and the logical outcome of that would be an increase in Defence spending. Meantime she is walking a very thin line on our trade-exposed dependency with China and may have been 'got to' by China to create this precedent and send the person back. Either that or our courts are hopelessly woke and naive and too stupid to factor the geopolitical risk this precedent creates.

Kris Faafoi is the fail-safe to the court system and will hopefully make the right decision. Time will tell...

I assume you wrote this tongue in cheek?

Kris Faafoi seemed to be everywhere (justice, immigration, MIQ, natural catastrophies) were our current government screwed up and he is adding to everything a big scoop of xenophobie and disregard of even basic human and citicens rights. You are sure you hope he will do the right thing? Good luck with that.

Maybe there is a reason for the saying "hope is not a good strategy" - not just in the investment world.

[Davexl]

Russia's intentions laid bare...

32m ago01.18

Moldova has expressed “deep concern” and summoned the Russian ambassador following comments by a Russian military commander who said Moscow’s new aim was to seize control of southern Ukraine, which would also give it access to Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova.

These statements are unfounded and contradict the position of the Russian Federation supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, within its internationally recognized borders,” Moldova’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

In a meeting with Russian ambassador Oleg Vasnetov, the ministry “reiterated that the Republic of Moldova, in line with its Constitution, is a neutral state and this principle must be respected by all international actors, including the Russian Federation,” it continued.

[Davexl]

I assume you wrote this tongue in cheek?

Kris Faafoi seemed to be everywhere (justice, immigration, MIQ, natural catastrophies) were our current government screwed up and he is adding to everything a big scoop of xenophobie and disregard of even basic human and citicens rights. You are sure you hope he will do the right thing? Good luck with that.

Maybe there is a reason for the saying "hope is not a good strategy" - not just in the investment world.

Hope is maybe all we have BP, unless there is an appeal to a higher court. Pity the Privy Council is out of bounds now...

[Davexl]

1h ago00.32

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said he is “grateful” to Britain after prime minister Boris Johnson announced the reopening of the UK embassy in Kyiv.

I am grateful to our British friends for the important symbolic decision announced today to return the embassy to Kyiv. The United Kingdom became the twenty-first country to return a diplomatic mission to our capital. And this shows that we are not the only ones who believe in the victory of life over death,” he said in his latest video address to the nation.

Referring to comments by a senior Russian commander on Friday that the country’s new goal was to gain control of southern Ukraine, giving it access to Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, he continued:

This only confirms what I have said many times: the Russian invasion of Ukraine was intended only as a beginning, then they want to capture other countries.

In Moldova, he noted, Russia has claimed that the rights of Russian speakers have been violated.

Although, to be honest, the territory in which Russia should take care of the rights of Russian-speakers is Russia itself. Where there is no freedom of speech, no freedom of choice. Where there is simply no right to dissent. Where poverty thrives and where human life is worthless. To the extent that they come to us, go to war to steal at least something that resembles a normal life.

You know they used to talk about their biggest dream: to see Paris and die. And their behavior is now just shocking. Because their dream now is to steal the toilet and die.

[Panda-NZ-]

Although, to be honest, the territory in which Russia should take care of the rights of Russian-speakers is Russia itself. Where there is no freedom of speech, no freedom of choice. Where there is simply no right to dissent. Where poverty thrives and where human life is worthless. To the extent that they come to us, go to war to steal at least something that resembles a normal life.

Indeed. Russian speakers need help within Russia I would think.