Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

43m ago21.41

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres will visit Turkey on Monday before travelling to Moscow and Kyiv, the UN said.
Guterres will meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has hosted peace negotiations, before visiting Moscow on Tuesday to visit Russian President Vladmir Putin.
On Thursday, Guterres will travel to Kyiv.


1h ago02.26

Volodymyr Zelenskiy used his evening address to describe Russia as a terrorist state and liken its actions in Mariupol to those of the Nazis.
Speaking on Saturday night in a video message posted on Facebook, Zelenskiy said those responsible for atrocities would be held to account. He referred to missile strike in Odesa on Saturday which killed 18 people, including a three-month old baby girl.
“How did she threaten Russia? It seems that killing children is just a new national idea of the Russian Federation,” Zelenskiy said. The missiles were launched by Russian strategic aircraft from the Caspian Sea region, he added. Ukraine managed to shoot down two missiles, but five more missiles hit the city.
“We will identify all those responsible for this strike.... Everyone who gives these orders, everyone who fulfils these orders. No matter how long it takes us, all these bastards will be responsible for every death they caused,” he said.

He added that new information continued to emerge regarding crimes by Russian forces against Mariupol residents. “New graves of people killed by the occupiers are being found. We are talking about tens of thousands of dead Mariupol residents. Negotiations of the occupiers on how they conceal the traces of their crimes are recorded,” he said.

Zelenskiy said Russia was continuing the activites of “filtration camps”, where Russian forces are sending Ukrainian citizens, before forcibly relocating them to Russia.
“The honest name for them is in fact different, concentration camps. Like those built by the Nazies in the past. Ukrainians from these camps, the survivors, are sent further into the occupied territories and to Russia,” he said. “They also deport children hoping that they will forget where there home is and where they are from.”

Zelenskiy said Russia’s actions were enough to show the world that the Russian army was a terrorist organisaiton.
He had spoken to UK prime minister Boris Johnson on Saturday, he said, thanking him for support, and was now preparing to meet US representatives.


1h ago02.11

Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 60 of the Russian invasion

Read more


2h ago01.21

The Ukrainian president has praised Britain’s efforts in training his military amid accusations the UK blocked requests to strengthen Kyiv’s defences after Russia’s first strike eight years ago, reports PA Media.

Here is further detail from PA Media’s report:

Volodymyr Zelensky told a press conference in Kyiv that the UK, along with the US, was supplying the “biggest military aid” in its struggle against Moscow’s invading forces.

This comes as a former defence secretary accused previous Downing Street operations of being reluctant to support Kyiv in the aftermath of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s annexing of Crimea in 2014.

Michael Fallon told The Sunday Times that, when serving under former Conservative prime minister David Cameron, he was told to turn down requests for assistance in upgrading Ukraine’s defences despite the Ministry of Defence wanting “to do more”.
“We were stymied and we were blocked in Cabinet from sending the Ukrainians the arms they needed,” Mr Fallon told the newspaper.

“Some in the Cabinet felt extremely strongly that we should do nothing to further provoke Russia.

“I felt that was absurd. The Russians didn’t need any provoking. They were already there, sending people across the border.”
In the run-up to and during the current incursion, London has emerged as one of Ukraine’s closest allies in terms of supplying Nato-class weapons.

[Waltzing]

MIDWAY on TV 3 tonight. Who doesnt know the names of the US bomber pilots who saved the pacific as we know it and why we are all here in paradise today.

[Bjauck]

MIDWAY on TV 3 tonight. Who doesnt know the names of the US bomber pilots who saved the pacific as we know it and why we are all here in paradise today.

Lest we forget!

[Panda-NZ-]

Well done France.

Let's hope Australia kicks Morrison to the curb after surrendering the soloman islands and the port of darwin to the Chinese.

[Davexl]

1h ago00.11

If you’re just joining us now, here’s a quick rundown of the latest developments:

• US defense secretary Lloyd Austin and secretary of state Antony Blinken are currently in talks with Volodymyr Zelensky, an advisor has told local Ukrainian news outlets. Zelensky is expected to use the meeting to appeal for more US military aid.
• Russia is planning a “staged referendum in the southern city of Kherson aimed at justifying its occupation”, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said in its latest intelligence report. “The city is key to Russia’s objective of establishing a land bridge to Crimea and dominating southern Ukraine,” the ministry said.
• Igor Zhovkva, a top diplomatic adviser to Zelenskiy, has criticised UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres’ upcoming meeting with Vladimir Putin and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, saying that Guterres does “not really” have the authority to speak on behalf of Ukraine.
• Zelenskiy has tweeted his congratulations to Emmanuel Macron for winning the French presidential election. He called Macron “a true friend of Ukraine”.
• Dozens of civilians who died during the Russian occupation of the Ukrainian city of Bucha were killed by tiny metal arrows from shells of a type fired by Russian artillery, forensic doctors have said. Fléchettes are an anti-personnel weapon widely used during the first world war.
• Latest UNHCR data reveals almost 5.2 million Ukrainians have fled the country. More than 1,151,000 Ukrainians have left during April so far, compared with 3.4 million in the month of March alone. Beyond that, the UN’s International Organisation for Migration (IOM) estimates more than 7.7 million people have been displaced within Ukraine.
• The OSCE, the world’s largest security body, has said it is “extremely concerned” after several of its Ukrainian members were believed to have been arrested in pro-Russian separatist territories in the country’s east.
• In his Easter Sunday message, Zelenskiy said the religious festival “gives us great hope and unwavering faith that light will overcome darkness, good will overcome evil, life will overcome death, and therefore Ukraine will surely win”.
• Pope Francis has used the Orthodox Easter weekend to once again appeal for a truce in Ukraine “to ease the suffering of exhausted people”.
• Ukraine says hundreds of its forces and civilians are trapped inside the Azovstal steel plant in the city of Mariupol, which Russia has been trying to take for two months. Although Moscow had earlier declared victory in Mariupol and said its forces did not need to take the factory, the Ukrainian authorities say Russian forces have resumed air strikes and are trying to storm the plant.
• Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdoğan and Zelenskiy have discussed Mariupol during a telephone call. Turkey is ready to give all possible assistance during negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the Turkish presidency said on Sunday.
• The UN has called for an “immediate stop” to fighting in Mariupol so that civilians trapped in the city can be evacuated today.

[Davexl]

Here in NZ, as we commemorate ANZAC day and remember those who served and are actively serving our country. Let us try not to be too cynical about the state of readiness of our Defence forces and their capacity to fight, versus that of Australia's forces.

We - the public of New Zealand and successive governments over the last 40 years have allowed ourselves to run our Defence forces severely down, where they are almost irrelevant except for peacekeeping and civilian / humanitarian aid in the Pacific and we have only ourselves to blame.

Perhaps there is still time to put things right, and repair the relationship with our only formal allie Australia, and rejoin with the US to take on a future China in the Pacific, but the clock is ticking, especially since the China / Solomons agreement, reminding us of how quickly our geo-strategic situation can change.

"New Zealand’s dangerous strategic apathy in an uncertain age" | The Strategist

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...uncertain-age/

[BDL]

Here in NZ, as we commemorate ANZAC day and remember those who served and are actively serving our country. Let us try not to be too cynical about the state of readiness of our Defence forces and their capacity to fight, versus that of Australia's forces.

We - the public of New Zealand and successive governments over the last 40 years have allowed ourselves to run our Defence forces severely down, where they are almost irrelevant except for peacekeeping and civilian / humanitarian aid in the Pacific and we have only ourselves to blame.

Perhaps there is still time to put things right, and repair the relationship with our only formal allie Australia, and rejoin with the US to take on a future China in the Pacific, but the clock is ticking, especially since the China / Solomons agreement, reminding us of how quickly our geo-strategic situation can change.

"New Zealand’s dangerous strategic apathy in an uncertain age" | The Strategist

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...uncertain-age/

Excellent article.

Come on NZ, stop fighting Maori against all other New Zealanders. Look at where the real threat is coming from.

(And I suspect some of this discourse in NZ is partly, deliberately, stirred on by our real enemies)

Time for great leadership. Know anyone capable?? Ardern doesn't look like it to me. She actually looks part of the problem.

[GTM 3442]

The insiders view from outside

https://thebell.io/en/economic-constraints/

[Davexl]

Here in NZ, as we commemorate ANZAC day and remember those who served and are actively serving our country. Let us try not to be too cynical about the state of readiness of our Defence forces and their capacity to fight, versus that of Australia's forces.

We - the public of New Zealand and successive governments over the last 40 years have allowed ourselves to run our Defence forces severely down, where they are almost irrelevant except for peacekeeping and civilian / humanitarian aid in the Pacific and we have only ourselves to blame.

Perhaps there is still time to put things right, and repair the relationship with our only formal allie Australia, and rejoin with the US to take on a future China in the Pacific, but the clock is ticking, especially since the China / Solomons agreement, reminding us of how quickly our geo-strategic situation can change.

"New Zealand’s dangerous strategic apathy in an uncertain age" | The Strategist

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...uncertain-age/

Australia gets it - New Zealand governments?

4h ago03.01


Mostafa Rachwani

Australia’s defence minister, Peter Dutton, has said that the only way to “preserve peace is to prepare for war” and compared events in Ukraine to the 1930s, in an appearance on the Today breakfast show.

As the country marks Anzac day, the national day of commemoration in Australia and New Zealand, Dutton also warned of the increased risk that China is posing in the Pacific, and lambasted anyone who wants to “curl up in a ball, pretending nothing is happening”:
The only way you can preserve peace is to prepare for war and be strong as a country, not to cower, not to be on, you know, bended knee and be weak. That’s the reality.

Curling up in a ball, pretending nothing is happening, saying nothing, that is not … in our long-term interests and we should be very honest about that.

We have to be realistic that people like Hitler and others aren’t just a figment of our imagination or that they’re consigned to history.
We have in President Putin at the moment somebody who is willing to kill women and children. That’s happening in the year 2022.

It’s a replay, in part, of what happened in the 1930s.

[Davexl]

2h ago04.54

Here’s a bit more detail on the Blinken-Austin visit to Kyiv from AP, which reports that the top US envoys promised more $300m in foreign military financing and have approved a $165 million sale of ammunition.
The news agency wrote:

They also said Biden would soon announce his nominee to be ambassador to Ukraine and that American diplomats who left Ukraine before the war would start returning to the country this coming week. The US embassy in Kyiv will remain closed for the moment.

Zelenskyy had announced Saturday that he would meet with the US officials in Kyiv on Sunday, but the Biden administration refused to confirm that and declined to discuss details of a possible visit even though planning had been underway for more than a week.
Journalists who traveled with Austin and Blinken to Poland were barred from reporting on the trip until it was over, were not allowed to accompany them on their overland journey into Ukraine, and were prohibited from specifying where in southeast Poland they waited for the Cabinet members to return. Officials at the State Department and the Pentagon cited security concerns.

Austin and Blinken announced a total of $713 million in foreign military financing for Ukraine and 15 allied and partner countries; some $322 million is earmarked for Kyiv. The remainder will be split among NATO members and other nations that have provided Ukraine with critical military supplies since the war with Russia began, officials said.

Such financing is different from previous US military assistance for Ukraine. It is not a donation of drawn-down US Defense Department stockpiles, but rather cash that countries can use to purchase supplies that they might need.
The new money, along with the sale of $165 million in non-U.S. made ammunition that is compatible with Soviet-era weapons the Ukrainians use, brings the total amount of American military assistance to Ukraine to $3.7 billion since the invasion, officials said.

Zelenskiy had urged the Americans not to come empty-handed. US officials said they believed the new assistance would satisfy at least some of the Ukrainians’ urgent pleas for more help. New artillery, including howitzers, continues to be delivered at a rapid pace to Ukraine’s military, which is being trained on its use in neighboring countries, the officials said.

On the diplomatic front, Blinken told Zelenskyy that Biden will announce his nomination of veteran diplomat Bridget Brink to be the next U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.
A career foreign service officer, Brink has served since 2019 as ambassador to Slovakia. She previously held assignments in Serbia, Cyprus, Georgia and Uzbekistan as well as with the White House National Security Council. The post requirements confirmation by the US Senate.

Blinken also told Ukraine’s foreign minister that the small staff from the now-shuttered US embassy in Kyiv, which has relocated to Poland from temporary offices in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, would begin making day trips to Lviv in the coming days.