Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

More fine speeches by Liz Truss - seems to be doing a lot of that lately...

If Russia follows through on it's cutting gas to unfriendly countries not paying in Rubles, Germany and a number of others are going to be out of luck, achieving the West's aim by default, and that could trigger a major global downturn - yet another crisis we don't need...Yes it will hurt Russia but as for Europe ? (Hint LNG import terminals can't be built fast enough - or export terminals in Australia...)

12m ago18.44

West must overhaul approach to international security: UK foreign secretary

The crisis in Ukraine must be the “catalyst for change” to overhaul the west’s approach to international security, the UK’s foreign secretary Liz Truss has said.
Speaking at Mansion House in London on Wednesday evening, Truss described Russia’s president Vladimir Putin as a “desperate rogue operator with no interest in international norms” and called upon the west to “dig deep” into their weapons inventories.

Faced with appalling barbarism and war crimes, which we’d hoped had been consigned to history, the free world has united behind Ukraine in its brave fight for freedom and self-determination.

Those who think they can win through oppression, coercion or invasion are being proved wrong by this new stand on global security – one that not only seeks to deter, but also ensures that aggressors fail.
We cannot be complacent – the fate of Ukraine hangs in the balance.
But let’s be clear – if Putin succeeds there will be untold further misery across Europe and terrible consequences across the globe. We would never feel safe again.
So we must be prepared for the long haul. We’ve got to double down on our support for Ukraine. And we must also follow through on the unity shown in the crisis. We must reboot, recast and remodel our approach.”

Truss said recent events over the past months must be “a catalyst for wider change”.

Now we need a new approach, one that melds hard security and economic security, one that builds stronger global alliances and where free nations are more assertive and self-confident, one that recognises geopolitics is back.”

In the short term, the foreign secretary suggested the west should be “digging deep into our inventories [and] ramping up production” of heavy weapons, tanks and planes while sanctions against Russia need to go further to include cutting off oil and gas imports “once and for all”.

We are doubling down.

We will keep going further and faster to push Russia out of the whole of Ukraine.
And this has to be a catalyst for wider change ...
The war in Ukraine is our war – it is everyone’s war because Ukraine’s victory is a strategic imperative for all of us.”

[Davexl]

And yet more...

10m ago23.59

Inaction would be the 'greatest provocation', Truss says

Truss detailed what the new west’s approach to international security could look like: military strength, economic security and deeper global alliances.
“Firstly, we need to strengthen our collective defence,” she said, admitting that “the world should have done more to deter the invasion” and vowing to “never make that same mistake again”.

Some argue we shouldn’t provide heavy weapons for fear of provoking something worse. But my view, is that inaction would be the greatest provocation. This is a time for courage not for caution.”

Truss said the G7 group of leading industrialised nations should act as an “economic Nato” defending collective prosperity, while the western military alliance must be prepared to open its doors to countries such as Finland and Sweden.

At the same time, the UK needed to build a series of strong partnerships with like-minded countries around the world in a “network of liberty”.

In Europe, Finland and Sweden should, if they choose to join Nato, be integrated into the alliance “as soon as possible”, while states like Moldova and Georgia - which are not Nato members - should have the means to maintain their sovereignty and freedom.

Nato, which has traditionally been focused on the defence of Europe, needed to adopt a “global outlook”, working with allies like Japan and Australia to ensure the Pacific is protected and democracies like Taiwan are able to defend themselves.
Truss said they had to be prepared to stand up to “aggressors” who try to exploit their economic power as a “tool of foreign policy” to exert control and to coerce others.

Access to the global economy must depend on playing by the rules. There can be no more free passes.

We are showing this with the Russia-Ukraine conflict - Russia’s pass has been rescinded.

The G7 should act as an economic Nato, collectively defending our prosperity. If the economy of a partner is being targeted by an aggressive regime we should act to support them. All for one and one for all.”

The 3 Musketeers are back!

[Davexl]

3m ago00.11

Truss singled out China, which has refused to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, while increasing imports from Russia and commenting on “who should or shouldn’t be a Nato member”.

Countries must play by the rules.

And that includes China...
China is not impervious. They will not continue to rise if they do not play by the rules.
China needs trade with the G7. We represent around half of the global economy. And we have choices.
We have shown with Russia the kind of choices that we’re prepared to make when international rules are violated.”

[Waltzing]

Peace in our time. The politicians needed a Churchill back in 2014 to remind them and now its late 1939 - 40.

Fine words all nearly to late and the US needs along with europe to ramp up production. Lucky for them the aggressor has the same problems only more so.

as for CHMOA there reserve bank is now faced with a financial war on 2 fronts as their stock market tanks and they have to resort to infrastructure to boast GDP. The move to a consumer economy failed!

Buy US stocks that WILL recover even if they also have a hard landing.

[Davexl]

Peace in our time. The politicians needed a Churchill back in 2014 to remind them and now its late 1939 - 40.

Fine words all nearly to late and the US needs along with europe to ramp up production. Lucky for them the aggressor has the same problems only more so.

as for CHMOA there reserve bank is now faced with a financial war on 2 fronts as their stock market tanks and they have to resort to infrastructure to boast GDP. The move to a consumer economy failed!

Buy US stocks that WILL recover even if they also have a hard landing.

I suspect China will keep its nose clean - and will hopefully pull Russia into line as far as it's veiled nuclear threats against the West are concerned.

China doesn't need a nuclear war with the West either - trade trumps war for China's needs for it huge populace.
Depends how disparate Russia's pretensions are as a global power or whether they are already finished as one...

Hopefully global markets will remain intact for now...what does Bloomberg suggest ?
EU Tells Gas Companies Not to Bend to Russia’s Demand for Rubles

"Gazprom PJSC turned off the taps to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday in a dramatic escalation, making good on a threat to cut supplies if payments aren’t made in rubles. Attention now turns to how big consumers Germany and Italy respond, with German Economy Minister Robert Habeck warning that the risk of more cutoffs must be taken seriously."

[Davexl]

35m ago00.31

Ukraine’s losses from war reach $600 billion, Zelenskiy says

The total losses inflicted upon Ukraine from the war have reached $600 billion, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said.
The president met with local and regional authorities on Wednesday to discuss Ukraine’s post war reconstruction. Zelenskiy said:

Preliminary estimates of Ukraine’s losses from this war reach $600 billion today. More than 32 million square meters of living space, more than 1,500 educational facilities and more than 350 medical facilities have been destroyed or damaged.

Economic entities suffered huge losses – hundreds of enterprises have been destroyed. About 2,500km of roads and almost 300 bridges have been ruined or damaged. And it’s not just statistics. This is Mariupol, this is Volnovakha, this is Okhtyrka, this is Chernihiv, this is Borodianka and dozens or dozens of our cities, towns and villages.”

According to the president, more than 11.5 million Ukrainians have fled their homes due to the fighting, and about 5 million of them have gone abroad with 95% of migrants already wanting to return home.
Damage caused to Ukraine’s infrastructure as a result of the war has reached almost $90 billion, the country’s minister of infrastructure added.

[Davexl]

Wiggle room...

9m ago01.32

Uniper, Germany’s top importer of Russian gas, will transfer payments for Russian gas to a Russian bank and no longer to a Europe-based bank, newspaper Rheinische Post is reporting.

“The plan is to make our payments in euros to an account in Russia,” the daily paper cited a Uniper spokesperson as saying.
Even though Russia has demanded rouble payments for its gas, the payments system it has proposed foresees the use of accounts at Gazprombank, which would convert payments made in euros or dollars into roubles.
This offers wiggle room some countries could try to use to keep buying Russian gas against western currencies.

The European Commission said last week that if buyers of Russian gas confirmed payment was complete once they had deposited euros, as opposed to later when the euros have been converted to roubles, that would not breach sanctions.

Uniper said it considered Russian gas flows into Germany secure for now despite a halt in supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as transit volumes headed elsewhere would be unaffected.

[Panda-NZ-]

Remake the UN and kick out Russia.

They should have already been, relying on the legacy of a more powerful Soviet union.

[Davexl]

2h ago04.34

Fiona Harvey

Russia has nearly doubled its revenues from selling fossil fuels to the EU during the two months of war in Ukraine, benefiting from soaring prices even as volumes have been reduced, Guardian reporter Fiona Harvey writes for us today.

Russia has received about €62bn from exports of oil, gas and coal in the two months since the invasion began, according to an analysis of shipping movements and cargos by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

For the EU, imports were about €44bn for the past two months, compared with about €140bn for the whole of last year, or roughly €12bn a month.

The findings demonstrate how Russia has continued to benefit from its stranglehold over Europe’s energy supply, even while governments have frantically sought to prevent Vladimir Putin using oil and gas as an economic weapon.

[Panda-NZ-]

Vladimir Putin’s health under fresh scrutiny as video shows him ‘shaking uncontrollably’

The footage shows him seemingly suffering hand and leg tremors as he welcomed Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to a meeting in mid-February, just days before he launched his invasion of Ukraine. Mr Putin is seen holding one hand to his chest while the other is in a fist.

As his hand begins to tremor uncontrollably, Mr Putin pulls it close to his chest, in an apparent attempt to stop the shaking. However, as he walks toward his longtime ally, he wobbles as his leg also tremors.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2066674.html