Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

Investible Defence contractor ASX:ASB Austal

Coast Guard Issues Austal USA Contract Worth up to $3.3B for Offshore Patrol Cutter

https://news.usni.org/2022/07/01/coa...eid=cc0f71bf89

[Waltzing]

Yes DAVX once you start publishing MAO's little book in the villages and controlling the entire population of china you control innovation.

It will slow china GDP and any increase will just increase state debt levels and force the resumption of government spending.

It will become a recursive cycle with no way out as the west rights the ship and sails away in the later part of the decade as long as the evil empire in east of Europe is contained.

[Davexl]

What if we run out of "what if" scenarios? Do we then take a stab at the big question?

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...nkable-ukraine

The preferred option:

"Direct entry into the war at the conventional level would not neutralize panic in the West. But it would mean that Russia would be faced with the prospect of combat against a NATO that was substantially superior in nonnuclear forces, backed by a nuclear retaliatory capability, and less likely to remain restrained if Russia turned its nuclear strikes against U.S. rather than Ukrainian forces."

Am surprised by this comment...

Before the 2nd phase of the Ukraine war, I would have thought that Russia's (& China's in a world war) conventional forces, at least in sheer numbers, were substantially superior to the West's. Guess since the 1990's with the Soviet Union breakdown the reverse is in fact true ?

Also if a Russian nuclear attack occured at this point in time - Russia's conventional forces have been already substantially weakened thanks to Ukraine...

[Davexl]

Signs of a thaw in Aust-China foreign policy, but is it only temporary or a renewal in the relationship?

Opposition now claims China is gunning for military base in Solomon Islands

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/opposition-now-claims-china-is-gunning-for-military-base-in-solomon-islands-20220703-p5ayn2.html


Beijing meeting opens door to talks between Penny Wong and Wang Yi

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/beijing-meeting-opens-door-to-talks-between-penny-wong-and-wang-yi-20220704-p5ayzf.html

[Davexl]

NATO’s China overtures a new bid for military relevance

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...04-p5aysk.html

"The new calculation for China’s leadership is that its window for significant successful military action in the western Pacific and potentially against Taiwan, long thought to be endlessly expanding, is now beginning to close. China’s time to act is now finite."

[Waltzing]

China needs high quality iron ore and AUS has it in large amount in the ground ?

maybe china realises that the way forward is trade after all... maybe.

[Davexl]

Turkey reminding everyone - who's the Boss

Ukraine Latest: Turkey Renews Threat to Veto NATO Expansion

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ects-war-zones

[GTM 3442]

May the New Zealand Prime Ministers diplomacy be as fruitful.

Or something. . .

https://www.thedailystar.net/news/ba...rapali-3064676

[Waltzing]

"Turkey reminding everyone - who's the Boss"

Get rid of Turkey...

Inflation wiping out the economy and the idiot running the TKY needs to make head lines distracting its population.

kick the Turkey out....

[BlackPeter]

China needs high quality iron ore and AUS has it in large amount in the ground ?

maybe china realises that the way forward is trade after all... maybe.

Didn't Russia attack neighbouring Ukraine to steal its resources in the Dombass and Luhansk regions (coal, iron ore, titanium, nickel, lithium, rare earths)? Lets hope the Chinese are not watching, shall we?