Geo Political Risk

[Waltzing]

BP the TWN navy looks pretty old but are developing there own SUB's and maybe they could also buy the new fighters from South Korea.

The Chinese have a much stronger Navy and newer on paper but they would all be sitting ducks if the TWN gets lots of missiles...

basically the TWN just need lots of rockets... lets face it landing on a small island when you have never done a big landing before could just be suicide..

Omaha Beach?

But if they run an old fashioned blockade what could a anyone do? Nothing...but sanctions on China the only options left?

sell the market as the DOW could be cut in 2/3's in a panic sell off if sanctions become the only weapon left..

and really sanctions are the best weapon to use....

Its a mini Cuban blockade.

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/c...7-slam-drills/

[BlackPeter]

...
But if they run an old fashioned blockade what could a anyone do? Nothing...but sanctions on China the only options left?
...

Taiwanese anti ship missiles have a specified operating range of 400 km (apparantly though working still up to more than 1000 km).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hsiung_Feng_III

Just wondering how the Red Chinese keep a blockade going if the Taiwanese let these babies rain upon them? Needs to be a cordon with an amazing diameter ....

Good thing as well - TWN only needs to kill of the supply ships .... the reminder of the cordon will disappear or starve.

Maybe they turn sitting ducks quickly into drowing ducks ... eh - sheeps.

[Davexl]

China resumes military drills off Taiwan after shelving US talks

Anti-submarine attack and sea raid exercises begin, as Beijing maintains pressure on Taiwan’s defences

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-taiwan-visit

[Waltzing]

Yes well BP its certainly situation that is complex....

Does the new MAO leader really understand the wide ramifications. It seems no one really knows what would happen and just look how up side down the plan turned for UKRAINE.. even now the operational RUS command seems to not know what its doing.

The RUS tried to fix a bridge only to find last 24-48 hours more HIMARS or something blew up all the bridge repair equipment and the local RUS appointed committee say the bridges are out of commission and no date for repair.

Just shows that you have a plan and all of the sudden the plan DOESNT WORK...

New plan move ahead anyway ....

Result message back to central committee... dont tell the BOSS RUS man its not working...

"Yes we are moving forward!!!!"

Committee secretary is told to "Write that down!" ah no dont write anything down!!!!

You be sure its a farce just like in "death of stalin"...or "dear comrade".

And they control a Nuclear power station....

Right now dear investors be very very close to your SELL BUTTONS!!!

[Davexl]

Snapshot from NYT
Where are those A10's when you need them...

The guessing game on the front

Over the past several weeks, Ukrainian forces have been able to regain slivers of land in eastern Ukraine — three miles of wheat fields in one place, a village in another, more trenches in a third.

The war is effectively divided between two theaters, in the east and the south of Ukraine, with Ukrainian troops seeking to slow or stop Russian advances in the east while counterattacking in the south.

After a summer of few conclusive battles, Ukraine and Russia are now facing a quandary over how to concentrate their forces, leaving commanders in a guessing game about where, when and how their enemy might make a major move, reported Andrew Kramer, the Times’s Kyiv bureau chief.

Ukraine’s modest gains in the east have come as a result of its strategy of publicly saying that it intended to launch a counteroffensive in the south, Ukrainian commanders say. The Russian Army responded by diverting soldiers to the south, according to Ukrainian commanders and Western analysts. This, in turn, reduced the intensity of the fighting in the east.

However, some analysts say that the slowdown in the east has more to do with Russia’s need to rebuild its forces, and less to do with its splitting its attention with the south.

After capturing the cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in late June, Russia’s military declared an operational pause to regroup and rearm. Independent analysts said that the Russians had suffered extensive casualties and units needed to be reconstituted.

In Ukraine’s view, the Russians are most vulnerable on the western side of the Dnipro River, and in recent weeks Ukrainian forces have bombed two bridges the Russian Army uses to supply its troops. On Saturday, as engineers sought to repair them, the Ukrainians hit them again.

The Russians have been reinforcing their positions in the south, either to defend themselves from a Ukrainian counteroffensive or to pre-empt it with an attack of their own, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said in an assessment.

The assessment cited “long convoys of Russian military trucks, tanks, towed artillery and other weapons” moving away from the Donbas and heading for Ukraine’s southwest.

Ukraine also says Russia’s artillery has been quieted by the arrival on the battlefield of U.S.-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, which strike with precision far behind Russian lines. The systems, known as HIMARS, arrived about a month ago, just as Ukraine accelerated its attacks in the south.

[GTM 3442]

That's a lot of volunteers. . . are Wagner having trouble recruiting in Syria?

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...to-help-russia

[Davexl]

Japan should triple defense budget 'immediately': Elbridge Colby

Ex-Pentagon official says Beijing has incentive to weaken Tokyo as regional rival

https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Pic...Elbridge-Colby

(Might need to register)

[Davexl]

Taiwan tensions a boon for defense industry but supply clogs loom

Lockheed, Boeing, Raytheon race against time to meet demand from U.S. allies

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/As...ply-clogs-loom

[Waltzing]

Long lines of conveys ... HImars targets when they get to road junctions? Like those trains?

It looks like somehow the UKE's are using Missiles that hunt radars... how they are fired who knows BP...

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/08/p...gon/index.html

[Balance]

Taiwan tensions a boon for defense industry but supply clogs loom

Lockheed, Boeing, Raytheon race against time to meet demand from U.S. allies

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/As...ply-clogs-loom

Totally to be expected.

The military arms industry controls the US government and needs continuous war mongering to sell their weapons of death & destruction.

WOMD.