Geo Political Risk

[rimu75]

Just as an interesting aside. The feeling of threat from China in Taiwan (by the average citizen) at the moment is much the same as the last decade. There is no massive increase in worry or fear over the current tensions. There is a slight discord between the narrative presented in the media and how risk is perceived by locals. I would say I am more worried than in the past. I am not, however, packing a suitcase and heading for the airport. Maybe we have been desensitized to political tensions... Possibly I am underestimating the risk. Not sure but the current fear seems a political hyperbole and Taiwan is stuck in the middle as a pawn.

[BlackPeter]

Just as an interesting aside. The feeling of threat from China in Taiwan (by the average citizen) at the moment is much the same as the last decade. There is no massive increase in worry or fear over the current tensions. There is a slight discord between the narrative presented in the media and how risk is perceived by locals. I would say I am more worried than in the past. I am not, however, packing a suitcase and heading for the airport. Maybe we have been desensitized to political tensions... Possibly I am underestimating the risk. Not sure but the current fear seems a political hyperbole and Taiwan is stuck in the middle as a pawn.

We certainly wish you and all people of Taiwan all the best, and that you will be able to determine about your future. These are cracy times.

I guess though that whatever happens will have little correlation to how the people in Taiwan currently feel, but more correlation to what Xi thinks is best for him to consolidate his autocratic power over his people until his death.

Might be interesting to research whether the people in the countries attacked during WWII expected the attack, or whether it came to them as surprise?

I guess with the benefit of hindsight most probably could say they had seen some signs, but then - how often do people expect an attack which doesn't come? I suspect the correlation between expecting a war and this war happening is not much better than the correlation between predicting a stock price and this price coming true.

I remember the people in Kiev still celebrating and having their normal life on the eve of Putin marching in.

[rimu75]

We certainly wish you and all people of Taiwan all the best, and that you will be able to determine about your future. These are cracy times.

I guess though that whatever happens will have little correlation to how the people in Taiwan currently feel, but more correlation to what Xi thinks is best for him to consolidate his autocratic power over his people until his death.

Might be interesting to research whether the people in the countries attacked during WWII expected the attack, or whether it came to them as surprise?

I guess with the benefit of hindsight most probably could say they had seen some signs, but then - how often do people expect an attack which doesn't come? I suspect the correlation between expecting a war and this war happening is not much better than the correlation between predicting a stock price and this price coming true.

I remember the people in Kiev still celebrating and having their normal life on the eve of Putin marching in.

I totally agree with that. I am certain many historical invasions came as unexpected to the masses. It scares me that the world watched Putin amass troops and tanks on the border of Ukraine and yet there was shock when the invasion happened. In Taiwan it is a constant threat. It's really just the level of threat and the risk that seems to change.

[Davexl]

The crisis manager: Angela Merkel’s double-edged European legacy

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...uropean-legacy

"Rational, careful, democratic: the German chancellor in 2016 was cast as the anti-Trump, widely praised for standing up for democracy and the rule of law in response to the American tycoon’s election win. Yet she failed to confront the authoritarian in her midst: Viktor Orbán, a former EPP ally, who has taken control of state institutions to such an extent that Hungary is now classed as “partly free” in the Freedom House rankings, the first EU member state that is no longer a full democracy."

[Waltzing]

This is very concerning and if this is what is spreading through russian schools...

https://www.newsweek.com/belarus-joi...shenko-1733261

[GTM 3442]

China’s New White Paper Lays out Vision for Post ‘Reunification’ Taiwan

https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chin...cation-taiwan/

[GTM 3442]

Who'll be left at home to mind the store?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political...-defence-staff

[fish]

Who'll be left at home to mind the store?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political...-defence-staff

But do not underestimate the value of morale support

[GTM 3442]

This is very concerning and if this is what is spreading through russian schools...

https://www.newsweek.com/belarus-joi...shenko-1733261

Indeed.

Will President Lukashenko have the b*lls to play Franco to President Putin's Hitler?

[Davexl]

China’s laggard chips industry rotten with corruption

Series of top executive and official arrests point to graft and rot in government’s drive for chip-making self-sufficiency

https://asiatimes.com/2022/08/slow-c...15+August+2022