Geo Political Risk

[GTM 3442]

Green tea or green cheese?


https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/why-...g-to-the-moon/

[Davexl]

Bit more of the background, including WTO maneuverings...

Huawei documents reveal China's grievance against Australia

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/hu...18-p56oq2.html

[GTM 3442]

As Australia frets about the Torres Strait. . .

https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/paci...ishing-fleets/

[Davexl]

China wants Australia relationship back on track 'as early as possible'

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/ch...29-p56qr2.html

Excerpt:
"Rory Medcalf, head of ANU's National Security Colleges, warned that Wang's comments should "not be over-interpreted as some kind of positive signal".

"They are at best mild and conditional," Medcalf said. "Of course it’s nice at one level to receive some hint that China too would like a stable relationship, but the bottom line is that Wang’s words still place all the responsibility on Australia.

"There’s no admission that China bears any fault in the deterioration in ties, or even acknowledgement that it is using ongoing coercive measures – economic restrictions or hostage diplomacy – against countries like Australia and Canada."

[Davexl]

What really happened in Wuhan:

25 days that changed the world: How COVID-19 slipped China’s grasp

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...irus-missteps/

despite Foreign Minister Wang Yi's CCP lies

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN29702U

Excerpt:
“We raced against time, and were the earliest to report the epidemic to the world,” he said.
“More and more studies show that the epidemic very probably emerged in many places throughout the world.”

[Davexl]

After weeks of escalation and threatening language, the Defense Department is sending mixed messages as the anniversary of the death of an Iranian general nears.

In Abrupt Reversal of Iran Strategy, Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier Home

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/u...ran-trump.html

Excerpt:
But critics said the mixed messaging was another example of the inexperience and confusing decision-making at the Pentagon since Mr. Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper and several of his top aides in November, and replaced them with Mr. Miller, a former White House counterterrorism aide, and several Trump loyalists.

“This decision sends at best a mixed signal to Iran, and reduces our range of options at precisely the wrong time,” said Matthew Spence, a former top Pentagon Middle East policy official. “It calls into serious question what the administration’s strategy is here.”

[Davexl]

Well, somebody had to ask the question...

"Is it time to sell our seat on Five Eyes?"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...t-on-five-eyes

Excerpt:
"My big worry is that our officials at the Government Communications Security Bureau and New Zealand Defence Force will be wined and dined by the Americans, and they won’t want to give up this unearned status. They will advise our government just how important it is to stay in the Five Eyes, when we really should sell our seat there to our old enemy, Japan, and pursue an independent role free of commitment to either China or America."

My own personal reaction to this brief article FWIW, is that this is an exceedingly cynical view of the value of our Five Eyes membership, and is likely coloured by the abominable recent political actions of the Trump "regime". It does not take account of the upcoming Biden government, which is likely to be based on intelligent, measured and disciplined policy settings that are diametrically opposite to what we witnessed over the last four years.

It misrepresents the nature of our "long term" shared culture & values with the US and the sacrifices made to sustain those values over the last 75 years.

NZ has been free-riding in our defence commitment for most of the last 40 years and has been one of the major benefactors of the US nuclear shield over even more of that time, (whatever you think of the sanity of it or not - it worked!) as a guarantor of peace against a third nuclear war.

Yes, the US has made mistakes in Iraq, and we (perhaps?) shouldn't have intervened in Vietnam, but these comments are casually made in full hind-site, not within decisions taken in the context of the times.

There is a real cost to be born if NZ were to go full independent. For a start it would probably need to quadruple its defence spending, rather than merely double it (and reinstate it's strike wing) as it needs to today. An independent NZ would need a credible defence capability to defend itself ON ITS OWN bat, as Australia would no longer be interested as it would no longer be an allie of NZ and has enormous defence considerations of its own, which it is taking seriously to implement.

Whether we like it or not, NZ can never put up a CREDIBLE defence commitment on it's own against the clear and present threat that China presents as it subsumes Democracy in Hong Kong, and threatens Taiwan directly in the Geopolitical context of Democracy vs a CCP Totalitarian system of governance. And will China stop there or directly threaten other Democratic regimes under President Xi ? We don't know for sure, which is why we have Defence commitments and alliances with more powerful nations like the US and Australia (as we currently have) in the first place!

A view to which I strongly subscribe written by an American military scholar, ML Cavanaugh (with strong NZ links) is presented here:

"New Zealand’s dangerous strategic apathy in an uncertain age"

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly

[Waltzing]

NZ - the new Switzerland of the pacific. Banking capital of the pacific. Dont think the locals want to be neutral yet. Its pretty simple, NZ access to the western markets will be at stake. Those trade deals will get left at the bottom of the rubbish bin.

Its doubtful we could afford a air force anymore. Prehaps some old second hand f16's? I dont think the budget could even extend to that. Rent some f35's for some training at a base in australia for a few months a year?

NZ is a small pacific chain island almost fishing, cow farm out post of the empire. With Brexit it wont be long before the UK trade minister is back here in the pacific creating the old clipper routes.

[Davexl]

NZ - the new Switzerland of the pacific. Banking capital of the pacific. Dont think the locals want to be neutral yet. Its pretty simple, NZ access to the western markets will be at stake. Those trade deals will get left at the bottom of the rubbish bin.

Its doubtful we could afford a air force anymore. Prehaps some old second hand f16's? I dont think the budget could even extend to that. Rent some f35's for some training at a base in australia for a few months a year?

NZ is a small pacific chain island almost fishing, cow farm out post of the empire. With Brexit it wont be long before the UK trade minister is back here in the pacific creating the old clipper routes.

NZ could easily afford an air force, but does it have the will? NZ used to comfortably sustain 4 frigates in the navy and a strike wing, and remains a reasonably rich and modern Western country compared to many other poorer counties with sizeable defence forces. Yes we have fallen down from 3rd in the OECD but not out of it - yet...

[Davexl]

‘Erdogan should be very, very worried’: What the Biden presidency means for Turkey

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/31/what...ost-trump.html

Excerpt:
"Among those are human rights in Turkey, which Democrats in particular have spoken out against; Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system which angered its NATO allies and nearly triggered U.S. sanctions; and its military action against America’s Kurdish allies in northern Syria and support for Islamic extremist groups, which Ankara argues are not terrorists and are necessary to protect its interests in the region.

There are also Erdogan’s aggressive moves against Greece and Cyprus over gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean; Turkey’s alleged role in helping Iran skirt U.S. sanctions; and the shared Incirlik air base, where Turkey hosts a huge number of American troops, aircraft and some 50 of its nuclear warheads — and which Erdogan has threatened to cut off if hit with U.S. sanctions."