Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

Putin’s Russian Empire is collapsing like its Soviet predecessor

Atlantic Council

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...M6gu-tDYIpvE1w

[Davexl]

Bloomberg's version of events...

The potential for a major escalation in Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine is being telegraphed by a rush to hold what NATO and Kyiv officials call sham referendums in occupied areas of the east and south. As Putin’s forces have been pushed back, aides have urged him to claim parts of Ukraine as Russian territory, like he did with Crimea.

Announcements of votes in the coming days were made just as measures unveiled in Moscow point to a potential mass mobilization that could follow.

Experts warn that Putin may label future efforts by Ukraine to recapture annexed territory as war on Russia itself, helping boost Russian public support for a call-up to supplement his battered forces. It would also free him, under Russia’s own rules, to consider the use of nuclear weapons, a level of brinkmanship that could lead to negotiations—or confrontation.

For now, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at the United Nations General Assembly in New York that “such sham votes, referendums, do not have any legitimacy, and therefore they do not change the nature of the conflict.” NATO and its partner countries “have to support Ukraine for as long as it takes, because the alternative is much more dangerous for all of us.

As for using weapons of mass destruction, US President Joe Biden warned of a “consequential” response should Putin take such a grave step. —David E. Rovella

[Davexl]

BB Snippets...

Russian redirect | Russia is likely to ship more fuel to Asia and the Middle East as Europe tightens sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine. With the European Union preparing to ban most Russian crude imports starting Dec. 5, followed by a prohibition on oil products from February, Russian sellers are using new tactics to redirect energy flows that may spur competition and drive prices lower.

Rekindling relations | Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. sees a “further strengthening” of political and economic ties with the US, marking his strongest statements yet on the longstanding alliance undermined by his predecessor. His stance is in marked contrast to that of former leader Rodrigo Duterte, who went to China in the early days of his presidency and announced a “separation” from Washington.

[Waltzing]

Even young chinese now they are going back to Moa...but now europe knows it too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/20/euro...sed-china.html

[Davexl]

NZ an irrelevancy - non-existent...

Fast Track Aussie Nuclear Submarine Development, Says MP on AUKUS Anniversary

https://news.usni.org/2022/09/16/fast-track-aussie-nuclear-submarine-development-says-mp-on-aukus-anniversary?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=7a59b1765 5&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89

"The agreement can also serve as a model for working with other allies, like Japan and South Korea, and partners like India in defense technology transfers, the panelists said."

[Davexl]

European businesses are rethinking their plans for a ‘closed’ China

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/20/euro...sed-china.html

“I’ve been here on and off 40 years and I’ve never seen anything like this, where all of a sudden, ideological decision-making is more important than economic decision-making,” Wuttke said. “And maybe that’s also amplified by voices from the outside, America[n] sanctions, America cutting off China, so I can understand partly why self-reliance is so high on the agenda.”

[Davexl]

Preparations begin...un-announced by our media...

China-Pacific tensions: US, UK join NZ and allies in Fijian military exercise

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/china-...POIMWPKZFOREI/

[Davexl]

Russia-Ukraine war live: Putin announces ‘partial mobilisation’ of Russia and calls up military reserves

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/21/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-blinken-calls-moscows-referendum-attempts-a-sham-zelenskiy-to-speak-at-un?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-632aab078f089a550b8a96cc#block-632aab078f089a550b8a96cc

Timeline

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...to-speak-at-un

[Waltzing]

Yes and NATO has issues threats of Nuclear war...

right ...

suppose he never heard what China and India just told him....

and on it goes.

well there goes european trips for the next few years...

Tourism to NZ should pick up as a nuclear shelter...

[beetills]

What chance is there of a large percentage of Russian war verterans telling him to stick it.