Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

A view from the fringes of the military-industrial complex?

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu//Po...ml?source=GovD

"Indo-Pacific Perspectives"

An excellent summary of the differing viewpoints held by the various power blocks within the "Indo Pacific".
Especially the more nuanced engagement with China by Japan and ASEAN, vs the currently more strident assertions of the US.

Also the relative compliance by China with the "rules based order" in the Indian Ocean theatre,
vs its rejection of the 2016 PCA ruling under UNCLOS in favour of the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Excellent reading - highly recommended...Thanks GTM 3442...

Excerpt:
"Multipolarity with shared commitment to multilateralism has the potential to make the Indo-Pacific
peaceful, predictable, and rules-oriented.

The task of the new US President Joe Biden is to undo Trump’s legacy, which undermined
the cause of a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific; salvage US leadership and influence;
and resuscitate multilateralism for the common good.

At the same time, it is necessary for other powers to engage both the United States and
China to prevent the Indo-Pacific region from becoming a theater of the “new cold war,”
and to ensure that freedom and openness across the region are enough to abate the
risk of coercion and instability."

Dr. Ngaibiakching (Indonesia)

[Davexl]

China's record November will further unsettle Australia and the US

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...08-p56lkr.html

Excerpts:
"The pandemic has had most of China’s major trading partners reviewing their reliance on its manufacturing base and supply chains
for medical equipment and supplies and other critical goods, so a Biden call for a collective approach to China might fall on fertile ground,
particularly now the world has seen how destructive it can be for individual economies to get on China’s wrong side."

"Last week the US Congress, in a bipartisan bill, presented legislation that allows for funding of a new "Pacific Deterrence" initiative
to demonstrate America’s commitment to protecting its interests in the Pacific and requires the regional military commander to deliver
annual reports on his forces needs to maintain military advantage over China."

[Davexl]

Well China on the surface level has "taken" Hong Kong. Wonder when Taiwan will be - could be?

What's Taiwan's state of readiness?

How China is trying to subdue Taiwan with 'gray-zone' warfare

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...-zone-warfare/

Excerpts:
"There are signs that the Tsai administration is working to boost readiness and firepower and to reform the reserves. In October, Yen revealed a proposal to build a better trained force within the reserves, made up of 268,000 troops, who could be “immediately” mobilized to join the standing military in an emergency. In the annual Han Kuang Exercise held in July in central Taiwan, two battalions of reservists were called up to take part in a live-fire artillery drill with regular units. A senior Taiwan official familiar with the island’s security planning said the United States had been urging the military to include the reservists in the drill."

and,

"Before his retirement last year, Lee proposed that the island avoid a war of attrition with a massively powerful China. Instead, Lee suggests Taiwan prepare to absorb PLA missile and air strikes. The key, he argues, is to preserve the ability to strike back at an invading force despite the likely loss of major conventional hardware, including big warships and jet fighters.

At the heart of Lee’s proposal are several changes. One, Taiwan should maintain a small number of large, expensive weapons to preserve public morale and counter Beijing’s gray-zone operations. At the same time, though, the island should bristle with big numbers of smaller, cheaper but lethal weapons, including mobile anti-ship missiles, portable anti-aircraft missiles, advanced sea mines and fast missile boats. Camouflaged and dispersed in urban, coastal, jungle and mountain areas, these weapons would be harder for PLA forces to find and destroy and could pummel an invasion force well before it reached land."

[Davexl]

Austin signals new ‘strategic patience’ with China

Biden defense secretary pick expected to take less confrontational tack to coalition-building against China than under Trump

by Richard Javad Heydarian

https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/austin...ce-with-china/

Excerpt:
"Core to his military philosophy is a profound appreciation of the complexity of threats and challenges confronting
the US in the 21^st century, a stark contrast with the position of both liberal hawks as well as the Trump administration.

While this could mean a dialing down of America’s military tensions with rivals such as China, it also signals the Biden administration’s
efforts to assemble a more robust and enduring coalition to constrain what are viewed by Washington as Beijing’s worst instincts."

[Davexl]

No relief: How Biden's new trade chief will keep the pressure on China

https://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...14-p56n94.html

Excerpt:
"For China, a coalition of the larger part of the global economy would be far more threatening to its ambitions than Trump's unilateralist approach and would make it more difficult for it to isolate and target individual economies – as it has done with its trade sanctions on Australian exports – than is now the case."

and,

"The (Chinese) steel mills are panicking, calling in Australia iron ore suppliers to question them about the prices, suspecting manipulation even though the Pilbara producers haven't reduced their production. Potential disruption to future volumes generated by the fallout from Rio Tinto's destruction of the Juukan Gorge caves might also be playing a role in the price spike.

In any event, the combination of the soaring prices of both iron ore and coal are threatening to throttle the profitability of China's steel and energy industries. Efforts being attempted to get the power companies to cap the price of the coal they buy, or trying to revisit the way in which iron ore is priced, are fruitless."

[Davexl]

While Australia chooses a muscular relationship with a newly aggressive China, ours is a quiet but determined independence,
says Anne-Marie Brady

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/108394/while-australia-chooses-muscular-relationship-newly-aggressive-china-ours-quiet?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign= ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+15+December+2020

Excerpt:
"We are positioned in a better place

New Zealand has a solid foundation of positive political relations with Beijing, which should mean that any matters of contention can be discussed and resolved amicably. When then National Party leader Simon Bridges visited China in September 2019, he was told by a senior Politburo leader that New Zealand-China relations were at a “historic best” - under the Ardern first term government.

Last week, in his first phone call to New Zealand’s new foreign minister, Nanaia Mahuta, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi repeated an often-said flattery that New Zealand-China relations were an “example” to other states."

[GTM 3442]

I was under the impression that Australian coal was off the menu. . .

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...-media-reports

[Davexl]

Australia's iron ore situation, and it geostrategic importance...

As Australia's relationship with China deteriorates beyond repair, we need to find new trade partners

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-14/australia-has-to-look-beyond-china-as-relationship-breaks-down/12979900?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campai gn=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+15+December+2 020

Excerpt:
"The only Australian product that will not attract any penalty from Beijing, for possibly a decade, is iron ore. It is the vital ingredient for China's ongoing infrastructure stimulus programs. Without it, China would struggle to maintain economic growth. That, in turn, would endanger employment and social stability, a prospect that sends shudders through Chinese Communist Party leadership."

[jr1973]

Quick question to this forum. Call me crazy if you like but let me run a scenario past you. Let's just say for S and Giggles that Trump wins. What is that likely to do to the NZ market? US market is pricing in a Biden Admin with a Yellen Fed and a Republican Senate = very bullish US markets. Will $$ move to US bonds? Gold? Remember bonds and gold are acting like stocks at the moment. Personally I expect a sharp drop in markets with a quick rally although lower than now. Implications are there WAS massive fraud and the Dems/RINO's would be screwed - massive social unrest and possible conflict with China (pretty bleak). This is not political - I don't care who wins really. Just thinking about the financial side of it.

Thoughts?

[Davexl]

China's treatment of Australia is a 'sign of things to come' for world, says John Bolton

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/china-s-treatment-of-australia-is-a-sign-of-things-to-come-for-world-says-john-bolton-20201217-p56o62.html

Excerpt:
"China was trying to separate Australia from its strategic ally the United States, just as it had attempted to do with Canada,
when it detained the two Michaels more than two years ago, following the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou
in Vancouver, at the United States request, Bolton said."

"It was obviously intended to split Canada from the United States, to split Australia from the United States."

"This is the way China behaves now. How are they going to behave when they become more powerful?
This is a sign of things to come."