Geo Political Risk

[GTM 3442]

Quick question to this forum. Call me crazy if you like but let me run a scenario past you. Let's just say for S and Giggles that Trump wins. What is that likely to do to the NZ market? US market is pricing in a Biden Admin with a Yellen Fed and a Republican Senate = very bullish US markets. Will $$ move to US bonds? Gold? Remember bonds and gold are acting like stocks at the moment. Personally I expect a sharp drop in markets with a quick rally although lower than now. Implications are there WAS massive fraud and the Dems/RINO's would be screwed - massive social unrest and possible conflict with China (pretty bleak). This is not political - I don't care who wins really. Just thinking about the financial side of it.

Thoughts?

Buy land.
Land and gold.
Land. and gold and a gun.

[Davexl]

Troubled Waters: Where the U.S. and China Could Clash in the South China Sea

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-south-china-sea-miscalculation/?srnd=premium-asia

Excerpt:
"Still, those arguments aren’t likely to hold much water with the Biden administration. Many members of his national security team
vividly recall Xi Jinping telling Barack Obama that China had no intention of militarizing land structures in the South China Sea when
the two leaders met at the White House in 2015."

[Davexl]

Where the Geopolitical Rubber really hits the road - What perhaps should have happened for a safer Mult-Polar world?

Germany opens the door to Huawei, with conditions

https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/germany-opens-the-door-to-huawei-with-conditions/
Excerpt:
"In a November post on Huawei’s website, the company’s chief security officer Andy Purdy wrote,

“Other countries embrace uniform testing across vendors – not discriminating on their country of origin… Huawei also opened a testing center in Bonn, Germany last November and another in Brussels earlier this year. It should be able to open similar centers in the US. At the very least, the US should take an approach similar to how Germany encouraged all telecom vendors to establish independent verification labs where third-party experts could vet code for vulnerabilities.”

[jr1973]

Buy land.
Land and gold.
Land. and gold and a gun.

Thank you for the reply. Appreciated

[Davexl]

Ignoring the idiot and possibly Russian compromised Trump, this could be a major developing story,
SolarWinds is network management software very commonly used by all kinds of organisations globally,
(including in New Zealand)

Trump contradicts Pompeo, plays down alleged Russian role in cyberattack

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/19/trum...e-in-hack.html

A slightly more technical discussion for those inclined here:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cyb...HRC5Z2ZUYKOUA/

Excerpt:
"Russia has been a sensitive topic for Trump. An investigation led by Robert Mueller found that the Russian government had interfered in the 2016 election that resulted in Trump becoming president. Trump said in 2019 that he had never worked for Russia, after The New York Times reported the Federal Bureau of Investigation had begun looking into whether he had become influenced by the Kremlin."

"Sen. Marco Rubio, a Republican representing Florida, said in a Saturday tweet that it was “increasingly clear that Russian intelligence conducted the gravest cyber intrusion in our history.”

[GTM 3442]

Green tea or green cheese?


https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/why-...g-to-the-moon/

[Davexl]

Bit more of the background, including WTO maneuverings...

Huawei documents reveal China's grievance against Australia

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/hu...18-p56oq2.html

[GTM 3442]

As Australia frets about the Torres Strait. . .

https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/paci...ishing-fleets/

[Davexl]

China wants Australia relationship back on track 'as early as possible'

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/ch...29-p56qr2.html

Excerpt:
"Rory Medcalf, head of ANU's National Security Colleges, warned that Wang's comments should "not be over-interpreted as some kind of positive signal".

"They are at best mild and conditional," Medcalf said. "Of course it’s nice at one level to receive some hint that China too would like a stable relationship, but the bottom line is that Wang’s words still place all the responsibility on Australia.

"There’s no admission that China bears any fault in the deterioration in ties, or even acknowledgement that it is using ongoing coercive measures – economic restrictions or hostage diplomacy – against countries like Australia and Canada."

[Davexl]

What really happened in Wuhan:

25 days that changed the world: How COVID-19 slipped China’s grasp

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...irus-missteps/

despite Foreign Minister Wang Yi's CCP lies

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN29702U

Excerpt:
“We raced against time, and were the earliest to report the epidemic to the world,” he said.
“More and more studies show that the epidemic very probably emerged in many places throughout the world.”