Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

After weeks of escalation and threatening language, the Defense Department is sending mixed messages as the anniversary of the death of an Iranian general nears.

In Abrupt Reversal of Iran Strategy, Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier Home

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/u...ran-trump.html

Excerpt:
But critics said the mixed messaging was another example of the inexperience and confusing decision-making at the Pentagon since Mr. Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper and several of his top aides in November, and replaced them with Mr. Miller, a former White House counterterrorism aide, and several Trump loyalists.

“This decision sends at best a mixed signal to Iran, and reduces our range of options at precisely the wrong time,” said Matthew Spence, a former top Pentagon Middle East policy official. “It calls into serious question what the administration’s strategy is here.”

[Davexl]

Well, somebody had to ask the question...

"Is it time to sell our seat on Five Eyes?"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...t-on-five-eyes

Excerpt:
"My big worry is that our officials at the Government Communications Security Bureau and New Zealand Defence Force will be wined and dined by the Americans, and they won’t want to give up this unearned status. They will advise our government just how important it is to stay in the Five Eyes, when we really should sell our seat there to our old enemy, Japan, and pursue an independent role free of commitment to either China or America."

My own personal reaction to this brief article FWIW, is that this is an exceedingly cynical view of the value of our Five Eyes membership, and is likely coloured by the abominable recent political actions of the Trump "regime". It does not take account of the upcoming Biden government, which is likely to be based on intelligent, measured and disciplined policy settings that are diametrically opposite to what we witnessed over the last four years.

It misrepresents the nature of our "long term" shared culture & values with the US and the sacrifices made to sustain those values over the last 75 years.

NZ has been free-riding in our defence commitment for most of the last 40 years and has been one of the major benefactors of the US nuclear shield over even more of that time, (whatever you think of the sanity of it or not - it worked!) as a guarantor of peace against a third nuclear war.

Yes, the US has made mistakes in Iraq, and we (perhaps?) shouldn't have intervened in Vietnam, but these comments are casually made in full hind-site, not within decisions taken in the context of the times.

There is a real cost to be born if NZ were to go full independent. For a start it would probably need to quadruple its defence spending, rather than merely double it (and reinstate it's strike wing) as it needs to today. An independent NZ would need a credible defence capability to defend itself ON ITS OWN bat, as Australia would no longer be interested as it would no longer be an allie of NZ and has enormous defence considerations of its own, which it is taking seriously to implement.

Whether we like it or not, NZ can never put up a CREDIBLE defence commitment on it's own against the clear and present threat that China presents as it subsumes Democracy in Hong Kong, and threatens Taiwan directly in the Geopolitical context of Democracy vs a CCP Totalitarian system of governance. And will China stop there or directly threaten other Democratic regimes under President Xi ? We don't know for sure, which is why we have Defence commitments and alliances with more powerful nations like the US and Australia (as we currently have) in the first place!

A view to which I strongly subscribe written by an American military scholar, ML Cavanaugh (with strong NZ links) is presented here:

"New Zealand’s dangerous strategic apathy in an uncertain age"

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly

[Waltzing]

NZ - the new Switzerland of the pacific. Banking capital of the pacific. Dont think the locals want to be neutral yet. Its pretty simple, NZ access to the western markets will be at stake. Those trade deals will get left at the bottom of the rubbish bin.

Its doubtful we could afford a air force anymore. Prehaps some old second hand f16's? I dont think the budget could even extend to that. Rent some f35's for some training at a base in australia for a few months a year?

NZ is a small pacific chain island almost fishing, cow farm out post of the empire. With Brexit it wont be long before the UK trade minister is back here in the pacific creating the old clipper routes.

[Davexl]

NZ - the new Switzerland of the pacific. Banking capital of the pacific. Dont think the locals want to be neutral yet. Its pretty simple, NZ access to the western markets will be at stake. Those trade deals will get left at the bottom of the rubbish bin.

Its doubtful we could afford a air force anymore. Prehaps some old second hand f16's? I dont think the budget could even extend to that. Rent some f35's for some training at a base in australia for a few months a year?

NZ is a small pacific chain island almost fishing, cow farm out post of the empire. With Brexit it wont be long before the UK trade minister is back here in the pacific creating the old clipper routes.

NZ could easily afford an air force, but does it have the will? NZ used to comfortably sustain 4 frigates in the navy and a strike wing, and remains a reasonably rich and modern Western country compared to many other poorer counties with sizeable defence forces. Yes we have fallen down from 3rd in the OECD but not out of it - yet...

[Davexl]

Japan to play placeholder role in Asia as Biden gets his house in order

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...n-coronavirus/

Excerpt:
"Even if the CPTPP is not high on Biden’s agenda now, Japan and the U.S. can cooperate on digital trade, supply chains and climate change, said Wendy Cutler, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

If the two countries make progress on those issues at an early stage, she said it would help restore U.S. trust in the region as a reliable partner and could even build momentum for the world’s No. 1 economy to reconsider participating in a revised CPTPP."

[Davexl]

‘Erdogan should be very, very worried’: What the Biden presidency means for Turkey

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/31/what...ost-trump.html

Excerpt:
"Among those are human rights in Turkey, which Democrats in particular have spoken out against; Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system which angered its NATO allies and nearly triggered U.S. sanctions; and its military action against America’s Kurdish allies in northern Syria and support for Islamic extremist groups, which Ankara argues are not terrorists and are necessary to protect its interests in the region.

There are also Erdogan’s aggressive moves against Greece and Cyprus over gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean; Turkey’s alleged role in helping Iran skirt U.S. sanctions; and the shared Incirlik air base, where Turkey hosts a huge number of American troops, aircraft and some 50 of its nuclear warheads — and which Erdogan has threatened to cut off if hit with U.S. sanctions."

[Waltzing]

"NZ could easily afford an air force"

NZ does have an air force. But running a modern fighter fleet costs a lot of money. With govt funds under pressure im not sure the country could afford anything other than a few seconds hand f16's. I remember the budget only just covering the old sky hawks.

average flight hours have been extended on those later models but second hand your getting aircraft with big maintenance costs coming.

Perhaps adding a costal submarine fleet bit like the super quiet european fleets being developed. Just in case a defensive option is needed from an invasion fleet from the likes of china?

well on off days it can help with fisheries patrol as global warming and over fishing means russian and chinses, japanese fishing boats head this way.

On other days it could earn it ways by it divers practising catching lobsters, big demand at the moment from china.

[GTM 3442]

In which BlackRock squint uneasily toward the rising sun. . .


https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/...risk-dashboard

[GTM 3442]

"NZ could easily afford an air force"

NZ does have an air force. But running a modern fighter fleet costs a lot of money. With govt funds under pressure im not sure the country could afford anything other than a few seconds hand f16's. I remember the budget only just covering the old sky hawks.

average flight hours have been extended on those later models but second hand your getting aircraft with big maintenance costs coming.

Perhaps adding a costal submarine fleet bit like the super quiet european fleets being developed. Just in case a defensive option is needed from an invasion fleet from the likes of china?

well on off days it can help with fisheries patrol as global warming and over fishing means russian and chinses, japanese fishing boats head this way.

On other days it could earn it ways by it divers practising catching lobsters, big demand at the moment from china.

Probably best to forget the wet-dream fantasies of fighter planes and concentrate on long range maritime role with aircraft and UAVs selected for inter-operability and cooperation with Australia.

Base it on a dozen P8s with supporting UAVs and you probably wouldn't go too far wrong if you did that upgrade in association with an Aegis Ashore system to keep the whizz-bang geeks happy.

[Davexl]

Thought provoking Book Review...

Why China is anti-fragile

Dan Blumenthal illustrates by negative example how utterly wrongheaded Washington's strategic approach has been

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/why-ch...-anti-fragile/

Excerpt:
"China’s comparative success in controlling the pandemic astonished the West. After some early bumbling by local party officials, China used its real-time locational data for smartphones to isolate individual cases, and fed this mass of information from smartphones into artificial intelligence servers which calculated the probability of new infection clusters. A Chinese government think tank published a detailed report on Beijing’s high-tech response on March 24, ignored at the time by a West that couldn’t believe it was happening. China reportedly has had virtually no new Covid-19 cases since April, apart from a few localized outbreaks quickly isolated and extinguished. Western commentators no longer gloat about China’s “Chernobyl moment.”