Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

Hmm .... not quite sure I understand your concern. Aren't both the US and Australia independent countries free to support each other with providing airbases for each other?

As well - how does this impact on our "independent foreign policy"?

Personally I'd prefer an American airbase in Australia to a Chinese Airbase in the Solomons (or wherever in the Pacific), but this is a different subject.

Absolutely they are free to support each other, but our choice to balance our policy between China (Trade) and US (Security) has been taken away, as Security will now have be first. The US is preparing to fight a war with Australia alongside, and NZ will have to tag along as Aussi's ally.

That's why Mahuta put a warning out to all exporters a year or so ago - that they must diversify their exports in case the situation with China / Taiwan etc blows up.

‘A matter of time’: New Zealand’s foreign minister warns China ‘storm’ could be coming - May 2021

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ould-be-coming

Australia is NOT in the same boat as us, as China needs them for iron-ore and coal, (until Brazil / Africa come online), whereas our exports could be sourced elsewhere in the world.

NZ is in a very precarious situation re the possibility of trade blackmail, as Australia has already lightly experienced. The only thing that's been "independent" about our foreign policy, is that NZ chose to remain respectful towards China, rather than Australia needling them.

The "game" has changed, the US has changed it (pre-positioning that amount of strategic power in Australia) - and we (thankfully) have to choose the US now and what happens, happens (to trade)...

[BlackPeter]

Absolutely they are free to support each other, but our choice to balance our policy between China (Trade) and US (Security) has been taken away, as Security will now have be first. The US is preparing to fight a war with Australia alongside, and NZ will have to tag along as Aussi's ally.

That's why Mahuta put a warning out to all exporters a year or so ago - that they must diversify their exports in case the situation with China / Taiwan etc blows up.

‘A matter of time’: New Zealand’s foreign minister warns China ‘storm’ could be coming - May 2021

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ould-be-coming

Australia is NOT in the same boat as us, as China needs them for iron-ore and coal, (until Brazil / Africa come online), whereas our exports could be sourced elsewhere in the world.

NZ is in a very precarious situation re the possibility of trade blackmail, as Australia has already lightly experienced. The only thing that's been "independent" about our foreign policy, is that NZ chose to remain respectful towards China, rather than Australia needling them.

The "game" has changed, the US has changed it (pre-positioning that amount of strategic power in Australia) - and we (thankfully) have to choose the US now and what happens, happens (to trade)...

Hmmm - yes, but if you think about it, was it really the US which caused these changes?

Isn't the problem that we made first a terrible mistake by creating this dependency from the authoritarian bully China?

Thankfully Putin taught the world a lesson what it means to get into dependency of an authoritarian crook, and we have now the opportunity to learn from that as well if we want to.

It is not the US removing options - it is China. The US is only reacting ... and thankfully we are still closer to them than to the blackmailer Xi.

[Davexl]

Hmmm - yes, but if you think about it, was it really the US which caused these changes?

Isn't the problem that we made first a terrible mistake by creating this dependency from the authoritarian bully China?

Thankfully Putin taught the world a lesson what it means to get into dependency of an authoritarian crook, and we have now the opportunity to learn from that as well if we want to.

It is not the US removing options - it is China. The US is only reacting ... and thankfully we are still closer to them than to the blackmailer Xi.

Traders would say that NZ never had any other major option except to trade with China, as there was never going to be support for our Agri sector from Europe and the US / Canada / Japan, coupled with Trump taking the US out of the TPP.

Trump was also the one who started a Trade War with China and blocked Huawei (which was straight out anti-competitive), which was based on spurious security claims that even the UK / Germany had chosen to ignore.

Perhaps China might have been more conciliatory towards the West if things had been different, but at the end of the day President Xi is in charge and his nationalistic assertiveness continues.
Plus Xinjiang /Hong Kong /South China Sea happened and we could see which way the wind was blowing.

Attitudes have hardened on all sides now - but did it have to be that way (so soon) is the question...

[Davexl]

More dependency concerns!

Worries over Germany's China dependency overshadow Scholz trip

https://www.reuters.com/world/worrie...ip-2022-11-02/

[BlackPeter]

More dependency concerns!

Worries over Germany's China dependency overshadow Scholz trip

https://www.reuters.com/world/worrie...ip-2022-11-02/

Absolutely - many German industrial giants do have manufacturing facilities in China .... and German Labour party seems to harbour some slow learners as well. First it was the former chancellor Schroeder being best friends with Putin, and now it is chancellor Scholz not wanting to let go of a deal to sell parts of Hamburg Harbour (i.e. essential infrastructure) to China.

It was not just NZ tapping into the trap to make itself dependant on crooks by putting too many eggs into the basket of an autocratic trading "partner" ...

[GTM 3442]

New Zealand’s always exported food – it’s basically what the country does.

But New Zealand exports expensive food, and there is a relatively limited list of countries able to afford what New Zealand produces. And as New Zealand moves “up the value chain”, that issue becomes more pronounced.

And those countries which can afford New Zealand food tend to have their own farming lobby – and that’s a lobby which votes very vocally.

As I understand it, New Zealand sought improve beef access to the US market by volunteering join the Vietnam war. However, New Zealand found that it would lose beef access to the US market if it didn’t join the Vietnam war.

Plus la change. . .

[BlackPeter]

Traders would say that NZ never had any other major option except to trade with China, as there was never going to be support for our Agri sector from Europe and the US / Canada / Japan, coupled with Trump taking the US out of the TPP.

Trump was also the one who started a Trade War with China and blocked Huawei (which was straight out anti-competitive), which was based on spurious security claims that even the UK / Germany had chosen to ignore.

Perhaps China might have been more conciliatory towards the West if things had been different, but at the end of the day President Xi is in charge and his nationalistic assertiveness continues.
Plus Xinjiang /Hong Kong /South China Sea happened and we could see which way the wind was blowing.

Attitudes have hardened on all sides now - but did it have to be that way (so soon) is the question...

Not sure about that ... and who the "traders" are who would say that. Clearly - China didn't sign their first FTA with NZ due to Helen Clarks blue eyes, but to get a stranglehold on the weakest link in the five eyes. Well, they are now tightening their grip.

There are many other markets the Labour party could have focussed on instead (like Japan, Singapore, India, various other parts of Asia) - and I am pretty sure that the US would have been much more receptive for a FTA over the years if NZ wouldn't have continuously showed them their anti nuclear middle finger.

Anyway - Labour wanted the free trade deal for political reasons with China, and Labour wanted to give America the middle finger for political reasons as well. They happily took the bait. This is not Americas fault.

Only us to blame ourselves ...

[Davexl]

Not sure about that ... and who the "traders" are who would say that. Clearly - China didn't sign their first FTA with NZ due to Helen Clarks blue eyes, but to get a stranglehold on the weakest link in the five eyes. Well, they are now tightening their grip.

I'm not so sure that was their motivation. Under Deng and Hu, these were more purely pragmatic leaders and I suspect actual trade needs were pretty much the primary motivation with ideology off to one side...Xi is the ideological one.

There are many other markets the Labour party could have focussed on instead (like Japan, Singapore, India, various other parts of Asia) - and I am pretty sure that the US would have been much more receptive for a FTA over the years if NZ wouldn't have continuously showed them their anti nuclear middle finger.

Japan was already taking American beef, Singapore was a tiny market itself, and India was and remains a closed market to agricultural exports that NZ does esp dairy (after trying again recently).

ASEAN was the one big missed opportunity perhaps but was poorer than China ?, but ripe for the picking now. And they tried Russia and the Middle East (with its troublesome live exports).

Our anti-nuclear middle finger was just dumb on our part, at the least they should have differentiated between nuclear armed vs propulsion and we should have gracefully acccepted the obsolete (obviously non nuclear) Buchanan? when it came, rather than rubbing it in their faces.

Off course it was all mute when all American surface ships had their nuclear weapons removed, but the damage was done. The whole anti-nuclear thing was based on ignorant fear IMO, but it was definately a grass-roots development among the NZ populace at large (and we still OWN it).

Anyway - Labour wanted the free trade deal for political reasons with China, and Labour wanted to give America the middle finger for political reasons as well. They happily took the bait. This is not Americas fault.

Mmmm - not so sure about political reasons, Labour aren't yet Communists (Quite !), at the end of the day it was just pragmatic trade. Things were going along quite swimmingly with US trade with Obama and TPP also, after the RESET.

It was very much Trump who screwed everything up - I would prefer to blame him alone than besmirching the US. Trump was very much Putin's man, as I suspect the Steel Dossier will one day show unequivocally.

Only us to blame ourselves ...

We sure did some dumb things, but idiocy isn't ours alone by any stretch...

[Davexl]

As I understand it, New Zealand sought improve beef access to the US market by volunteering join the Vietnam war. However, New Zealand found that it would lose beef access to the US market if it didn’t join the Vietnam war.

Plus la change. . .

That's a very interesting observation GTM - never heard of that one before...

[BlackPeter]

We sure did some dumb things, but idiocy isn't ours alone by any stretch...

I think we can full-heartedly agree on that one

... and yes, Trump clearly worked hard to push the US standards down to Putins and Xi's level. Luckily he didn't fully succeed (yet), but who knows what's coming next.

Next elections only a couple of weeks ahead ...