Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

After Gerald Hensley's recent passing, I thought it might be worth pointing to an item on his website concerning NZ's relationship with Lee Kuan Yew - 2 people who I admire the most - and the key part international relationships play in Geopolitics thru the years...

Lee Kuan Yew in NZ

https://kahudespatches.nz/recollecti...n-new-zealand/

[Balance]

After Gerald Hensley's recent passing, I thought it might be worth pointing to an item on his website concerning NZ's relationship with Lee Kuan Yew - 2 people who I admire the most - and the key part international relationships play in Geopolitics thru the years...

Lee Kuan Yew in NZ

https://kahudespatches.nz/recollecti...n-new-zealand/

Thanks for that, Davexl.

I am also a great admirer of Lee Kuan Yew and how he turned Singapore from a third world nation into what it is today - a prosperous, efficient, clean, progressive and crime free first world state with little equal anywhere in the world. Many lessons for NZ to learn from if NZ but take note.

[Swala]

[QUOTE=Davexl;1041324]After Gerald Hensley's recent passing, I thought it might be worth pointing to an item on his website concerning NZ's relationship with Lee Kuan Yew - 2 people who I admire the most - and the key part international relationships play in Geopolitics thru the years...

Lee Kuan Yew in NZ

https://kahudespatches.nz/recollecti...n-new-zealand/[/QUO


Thanks for that Davexl. As someone who lived (and loves) Singapore during Lee Kuan Yew's later years I really enjoyed reading this.

[Panda-NZ-]

In a just world Navalny would have been leader of russia as it transitions to the EU and becomes wealthy and prosperous (but sadly all the Soviet/KGB war crimes could be revealed).

Surely the KGB could have done a deal where putin is removed but all bad guys stay in their places and secrets remain hidden. Better for them than international isolation. All their hopes now lie on donald trump.

[Davexl]

Thanks for that, Davexl.

I am also a great admirer of Lee Kuan Yew and how he turned Singapore from a third world nation into what it is today - a prosperous, efficient, clean, progressive and crime free first world state with little equal anywhere in the world. Many lessons for NZ to learn from if NZ but take note.

Thanks Balance. I also remember the large number of NZ (& other nationalities) who lined up at recruiting lines at various IT, Telecom & engineering conferences in the 70's & 80's that contributed to Singapore's fast development in the following years. Singapore had actual master plans for its development whereas NZ to this day has not had an actual master plan devised and stuck to with its short electoral cycles & infrastructure flip-flopping thru the years, except for Muldoon's / Bill Burch's 'Think Big' projects and before that with the great Hydro engineering schemes that were completed etc. Lots to learn from Singapore indeed...

[Davexl]

[QUOTE=Swala;1041382]

After Gerald Hensley's recent passing, I thought it might be worth pointing to an item on his website concerning NZ's relationship with Lee Kuan Yew - 2 people who I admire the most - and the key part international relationships play in Geopolitics thru the years...

Lee Kuan Yew in NZ

https://kahudespatches.nz/recollecti...n-new-zealand/[/QUO


Thanks for that Davexl. As someone who lived (and loves) Singapore during Lee Kuan Yew's later years I really enjoyed reading this.

Thanks Swala - pleased you enjoyed it. Lots of great reading about Gerald Hensley also. He served NZ well over many decades as both a super-diplomat and national security manager during the cold war years. Got to meet him briefly a couple of times in Kelburn Wellington where he lived...bought a Crown DC-300A amplifier off him (we shared a love of great hi-fi equipment in those days) and also shared a love of playing the great tactical game of croquet of all things.

But yes, Singapore is an exemplar to aim for though NZ and Singapore are two very different societies / geographies despite sharing similar challenges as small economies in the big-wide-world. Lee Kuan Yew's leadership was perhaps only possible in a more Confucian-based cohesive Singaporean society. New Zealand has yet to find a great transformational leader in our modern history.

[Davexl]

In a just world Navalny would have been leader of russia as it transitions to the EU and becomes wealthy and prosperous (but sadly all the Soviet/KGB war crimes could be revealed).

Surely the KGB could have done a deal where putin is removed but all bad guys stay in their places and secrets remain hidden. Better for them than international isolation. All their hopes now lie on donald trump.

Interesting hearing you mention Soviet/ KGB war crimes Panda-NZ.
Have just been reading a book called "The Mitrokhin Archive" which is about exactly that. It covers the entire history of Soviet security services from before Lenin, thru the Stalin years and the wars, but especially the Cold War years. It's 800 odd pages and hard going it's so incredibly detailed - written by Vasili Mitrokhin who smuggled his Russian security archives taken over a 10-12 year period, over to the UK in the 90s. The biggest intelligence success ever post Cold War years for the West.

Navalny's death was terribly sad wasn't it? It seemed that an especially bright candle had been simply snuffed out and Evil won over Good.
Putin seems very much in control right now although Russia's economy is under heavy strain supposedly. The latest fear is the possible mass mobilisation of Russia's population, including the good citizens of Moscow and St Petersburg, who have been largely ignored until now by conscription demands. Navalny represented all the hopes the West had for a second more thoughtful attempt at real democracy for Russia, bypassing the Oligarchs this time around and taking apart the Putin security regime that has been in place for so long.
Not so sure his wife will achieve the same level of "success" as Alexei did, with his unfailing courage & charismatic leadership thru the years, especially in the patriarchal Russian society, but she will be a 'place-holder' perhaps for the next person to rise up in time, against the contradictions that all dictatorships have that ultimately cause their implosion from within. The Soviet Union collapse following the Cold War and Alexei's resistance of the Russian security-state are steps along a long path towards freedom for Russia's people.

[Davexl]

The (Aussi) Navy gets bigger under the fleet review. But is it enough?

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/th...-is-it-enough/

Going to be interesting to see where NZ's tiny Navy will fit in. Don't know if buying extra Hunter-class frigates is an option (it is considered as a Tier-1 warship / AEGIS equipped), perhaps we will buy 3-4 General Purpose Frigates, perhaps the S. Korean Daegu-II or III class modular frigates ? They will at least add a significant number of VLS's to the fleet to update missile capabilities in any future conflict.

[mondograss]

One of the things that came through in the recent white paper was that having 9 ships made up of 6 different types is proving to be difficult to sustain and is stretching the Navy's ability to maintain them all. We'd probably be better to ditch the OPV's and IPV's entirely in favour of a third frigate and a second sealift vessel. To which end presumably tacking on an order for 3 more frigates of whatever Aus buys would continue to make sense.

[Davexl]

One of the things that came through in the recent white paper was that having 9 ships made up of 6 different types is proving to be difficult to sustain and is stretching the Navy's ability to maintain them all. We'd probably be better to ditch the OPV's and IPV's entirely in favour of a third frigate and a second sealift vessel. To which end presumably tacking on an order for 3 more frigates of whatever Aus buys would continue to make sense.

Aussi thinking on Minor vessels:

Minor war vessels A total force of 25 minor war vessels, consisting of Navy’s requirement for sixArafura class Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs) and eight Evolved Cape class patrol boats (ECCPBs), and 11 ECCPBs for Australian Border Force (ABF). The ECCPB design best meets the operational need of the constabulary force inthe conduct of civil maritime security operations. The ECCPB (single vessel design) should be operated by both Navy and ABF. A single organisation (Defence) should be responsible for contracting acquisition and sustainment of the constabulary force, with the costs met by the relevant acquiring and operating force. The OPV is an inefficient use of resources for civil maritime security operationsand does not possess the survivability and self-defence systems to contribute to a surface combatant mission. Therefore the number of OPVs to be acquired should be reduced from 12 to six, with their role focused on civil maritime security operations and enhanced regional engagement in the Southwest Pacific and maritime Southeast Asia. These vessels will also provide the additional capability and capacity for civil maritime security operations surge requirements in lieu of Tier 1 and Tier 2 surface combatants. Whilst the OPV cannot conduct other roles (such as mine countermeasure ormilitary survey) in its as-designed-and-delivered state, further investigation should be undertaken to determine how the OPVs could contribute to other mission sets. If this proves feasible, they should be replaced by ECCPBs in the civil maritime security operations function.