Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

Not US, Australia, Canada or UK.

So much for the alliance!

With friends like them, who needs enemies, right?

The Rainbow Warrior events were for the most part a localized Pacific situation between France & NZ, an early environmental / anti nuclear war protest.
France needed its nuclear testing to maintain its nuclear forces at that time and to hell with everyone else in the faraway / forgotten Pacific.
France was also a Western Allie in the bigger picture which the other countries mostly sided with. NZ was small fry by comparison.
They chose to nor "rock the boat" over what was perceived by them as a relatively minor matter at the time. Though it was a huge issue for New Zealand.

I have no doubt that if war were to break out between the West and China, that France and Germany would also be allied with other Asian nations esp Japan and would if needed come to our aid, as we would do our little bit to come to theirs also. At the end of the day NZ is not non-aligned as a nation and stands for democracy.

[Balance]

The Rainbow Warrior events were for the most part a localized Pacific situation between France & NZ, an early environmental / anti nuclear war protest.
France needed its nuclear testing to maintain its nuclear forces at that time and to hell with everyone else in the faraway / forgotten Pacific.
France was also a Western Allie in the bigger picture which the other countries mostly sided with. NZ was small fry by comparison.
They chose to nor "rock the boat" over what was perceived by them as a relatively minor matter at the time. Though it was a huge issue for New Zealand.

I have no doubt that if war were to break out between the West and China, that France and Germany would also be allied with other Asian nations esp Japan and would if needed come to our aid, as we would do our little bit to come to theirs also. At the end of the day NZ is not non-aligned as a nation and stands for democracy.

Depends on what is in it for them - as you wrote, NZ is a nothing consideration.

[Davexl]

Depends on what is in it for them - as you wrote, NZ is a nothing consideration.

Only up to a point when it matters. Remember that the US came to China's aid in WWII against Japan, as they did for
New Zealand and Australia also in the battle for the Coral Sea.

Some of us haven't forgotten that...

but then you might argue that China is all sweetness and light which is clearly wrong at this time also.
Both sides have made mistakes but even Trump was right to stand up against China's aggression against it's neighbours...

A wiser man Deng Xiaoping, perhaps said it best:

"China is not a superpower, nor will she ever seek to be one... If one day China should change her color and turn into a superpower, if she too should play the tyrant in the world, and everywhere subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation, the people of the world should identify her as social-imperialist, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it."

Thanks Jaa

[Davexl]

U.S. stands with SE Asian countries against China pressure, Blinken says

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN29X0C1

Excerpt:
"The State Department said Blinken, who took office this week in Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration, “underscored that the United States rejects China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea to the extent they exceed the maritime zones that China is permitted to claim under international law.”

[Balance]

U.S. stands with SE Asian countries against China pressure, Blinken says

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN29X0C1

Excerpt:
"The State Department said Blinken, who took office this week in Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration, “underscored that the United States rejects China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea to the extent they exceed the maritime zones that China is permitted to claim under international law.”

Nice words but as empty as the US soothing words of its coalition with the Kurds.

Similar to what have been uttered for the last decade as China progressively took over the disputed islands in the South China Sea?

And in several instances, invaded oil rigs in sovereign waters?

What has the US actually done to date?

Zero.

Zippo.

Nothing.

And that’s how it will be if the shooting ever starts.

[GTM 3442]

Which country jumped to NZ’s side when the French bombed the Rainbow Warrior & then, imposed trade & diplomatic sanctions on NZ to force NZ to release the terrorists?

I don't know. Looking back, I just can't remember.

So which country was it that "jumped to NZ's side"?

[Davexl]

Biden presidency 'may herald new start for Saudi-Iranian relations'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nian-relations

[Davexl]

China’s calls for cooperation ring hollow

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion...n-ring-hollow/

Excerpt:
Those words rang hollow, given recent actions by China: More than a dozen Chinese fighters and bombers entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone last weekend. Sanctions were imposed on departing Trump administration officials. A law was passed that allows the Chinese Coast Guard to fire on foreign vessels and board and inspect ships in waters claimed by Beijing, as well as creates a right to declare “temporary exclusion zones” to prevent ships from innocent passage through waters illegally claimed by China — which include the Senkaku Islands. Finally, Chinese diplomats released 14 grievances that aim to reverse Australian policy toward China.

Japan, Sweden, South Korea and Norway have also felt the lash of Beijing’s coercive diplomacy. China’s ambassador to Sweden, Gui Congyou, explained his country’s logic in the aftermath of a 2019 decision by PEN, the international writers group, to honor a Hong Kong bookseller who had been arrested by Chinese authorities: “We treat our friends with fine wine but for our enemies we have shotguns.” That would seem to undermine Xi’s call to “respect and accommodate differences, avoid meddling in other countries’ internal affairs and resolve disagreements through consultation and dialogue.”

[Balance]

Pull the dragon’s tail and you can expect a strong reaction. Simple logic.

[Davexl]

Aleksei Navalny Is Resisting Putin, and Winning

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/o...son-putin.html

Excerpt:
It was Mr. Navalny in the glassed-in prisoner’s dock. But it was Mr. Putin and his corrupt cohort who were on trial behind the army of riot police gathered in central Moscow to prevent the sort of mass protests across all of Russia that followed Mr. Navalny’s return to his country on Jan. 17.

“Hundreds of thousands cannot be locked up,” Mr. Navalny declared from court to his millions of followers on social media. “More and more people will recognize this. And when they recognize this — and that moment will come — all of this will fall apart, because you cannot lock up the whole country.”