Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

Biden team snubs diplomatic solutions to S China Sea row

https://asiatimes.com/2021/02/biden-team-snubs-diplomatic-solutions-to-s-china-sea-row/

Excerpt:
In fact, it would seem that the military cart is ahead of the diplomatic horse. As Michael Swaine and his colleagues at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft suggest, the US should “couple deterrence with … far more active diplomatic efforts, strengthen crisis-management mechanisms and confidence-building measures with Beijing.” Meanwhile with its drone and missile superiority, it can shift militarily to a strategy of denial from a distance.

[Balance]

China on the ascendency in the South Pacific :

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/championi...heated-pacific

‘China had been increasingly (financially) supportive of island nations. “China is very present in the Pacific. Unfortunately for a long time, America has not been.”

No oil in the South Pacific so US cannot give a stuff.

[Balance]

A low level warning shot at little ole NZ about pulling the dragon's tail?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...K4EFHMWQQKZP4/

Paywalled

Seafood export leaders and Government officials are urgently seeking clarification from Chinese authorities after learning China has suspended exports from two major New Zealand seafood company processing sites.

The Ministry for Primary Industries said China had suspended exports from a Sanford site in Havelock that processes mussels and a Sealord facility in Nelson that processes fin fish and fishmeal for animal feeds.

[GTM 3442]

Personally, I'd expect one out and one in, but hey!what do I know?

https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/how-...um-fell-apart/

[Davexl]

Personally, I'd expect one out and one in, but hey!what do I know?

https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/how-...um-fell-apart/

Excellent article GTM, real implications in reshaping China's strategic influence in the S/W Pacific.
New Zealand not doing nearly enough as part of its Pacific Reset, US late to the party also...

Excerpt:
"The United States has recently taken the Oceania region as a whole much more seriously. In 2019 the first Pacific Islands congressional caucus was launched. The National Security Council established its first position for Oceania and Indo-Pacific security. There are increasing high level visits to the region including, in 2019, the first visit of a secretary of state to the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and in 2020, the first visit by a defense secretary to Palau – after which Palau offered to host a U.S. base.

The obvious reason is China’s fast strategic, diplomatic, and economic advances through the region. But the subtext has been that the United States’ Five Eyes partners, Australia and New Zealand, haven’t been delivering for PIC partners, allowing for China to make those inroads. The Solomon Islands and Kiribati, both theoretically in the Australian sphere of influence (by Canberra’s account), switched recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019, setting off alarm bells. The Solomons and Kiribati are strategically located, and soaked in the blood of American troops who died there fighting back the last expansionist Asian power in battles like Guadalcanal, Butaritari, and Makin.

So, the question in Washington will be, what to do about Australia and New Zealand? In the case of Australia, there is genuine warmth and mutual respect between the U.S. and Australian militaries, and admiration for the way the country has been standing up to China, but that doesn’t mean this move won’t be countered. In the case of New Zealand, there is largely an enormous amount of exasperation."

[Davexl]

Biden signals a ‘cold peace’ contest with China

https://asiatimes.com/2021/02/biden-...st-with-china/

[Balance]

So, the question in Washington will be, what to do about Australia and New Zealand? In the case of Australia, there is genuine warmth and mutual respect between the U.S. and Australian militaries, and admiration for the way the country has been standing up to China, but that doesn’t mean this move won’t be countered. In the case of New Zealand, there is largely an enormous amount of exasperation."

Australia the 'All the way with LBJ into Vietnam' country?

[black knat]

Interesting perspective on the state of Asia Pacific affairs. Seemingly well informed - New Zealand in a key position.

Analysis: A new Anglo-Japanese alliance threatens China's TPP plans - Nikkei Asia

[Davexl]

I have no doubt that if war were to break out between the West and China, that France and Germany would also be allied with other Asian nations esp Japan and would if needed come to our aid, as we would do our little bit to come to theirs also. At the end of the day NZ is not non-aligned as a nation and stands for democracy.

France wades into South China Sea against China

https://asiatimes.com/2021/02/france-wades-into-south-china-sea-against-china/

Excerpt:
In another unprecedented move, France spearheaded a joint note verbale with the UK and Germany to the United Nations last year, where the three European powers categorically criticized China’s maritime and territorial assertiveness in the South China Sea, which “do not comply with international law.”

“France, Germany and the United Kingdom underline the importance of unhampered exercise of the freedom of the high seas, in particular the freedom of navigation and overflight, and of the right of innocent passage…in the South China Sea,” said the joint statement by the three powers, which called firmly on China to comply with prevailing international law.

[Davexl]

Yet re-shoring appears to be non-viable as China & Japan straddle the geo-politics divide...

Why Japan Inc can’t and won’t quit China

https://asiatimes.com/2021/02/why-ja...nt-quit-china/